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Tag: Aaron Rodgers

Blogs • NFL

Jan 3, 2014

My Super Bowl XLVIII Dilemma

The New York Football Giants aren’t going to win Super Bowl XLVIII, so it’s time figure out who it makes sense to root for and against this NFL postseason.

Someone will win Super Bowl XLVIII, but it won’t be the Giants.

With the Giants officially on Day 5 of the offseason (I say “officially” because you could make the case that some of them have been in offseason mode for weeks and some never even left it for the regular season) it’s the eve of the NFL playoffs and Wild-Card Weekend. Since the New York Football Giants aren’t going to the playoffs for the fourth time in five years and therefore won’t be going to The Dance at their own home on Feb. 2, I decided to dust off an idea I had for a column three years ago when I ranked the 12 playoff teams in order from which team I would most like to see win Super Bowl XLVIII to which team I don’t want to see win at all. Here it is:

1. Bengals
What is there not to like about the Bengals? Or should I say, what is there to not like about the Bengals? Unless you really hate gingers and therefore Andy Dalton or want to see the Bengals playoff win drought endure another year, there’s no reason to care if the Bengals win it all.

2. Colts
Out of the entire 2012 Quarterback Breakout Class, it’s possible that Andrew Luck has received the least amount of hype and attention for the player who was drafted first overall, had the highest expectations and career projection coming out of college and was being asked to take over a franchise from Peyton Manning. Luck hasn’t disappointed with back-to-back playoff appearances in his first two years, which were supposed to be rebuilding years in Indianapolis and hasn’t done anything in the spotlight to draw negative attention (at least since becoming a Colt since there was that whole private security detail that he employed on campus at Stanford).

A Colts Super Bowl win means a Chuck Pagano Super Bowl win. It also means a Jim Irsay Super Bowl win and what’s better than having a loudmouth owner who called out (and he had a point with what he said) the Peyton Manning Colts for not winning multiple Super Bowls?

3. Broncos
Three years ago I had the Peyton Manning Colts ranked first, but things have changed. I wouldn’t mind if Peyton got his second ring, but coming in the same year in which his brother threw a league-leading 27 interceptions, as a Giants fan it wouldn’t be the best situation.

If Pierre Garcon didn’t drop a pass that would have broken open Super Bowl XLIV or the Colts weren’t taken by surprise by an onside kick or if Peyton Manning himself didn’t throw a devastating pick-six then Peyton would already have his second ring, would be 2-0 in Super Bowls and considered the greatest ever. Instead he’s just the greatest regular-season quarterback ever not the greatest quarterback ever. I wouldn’t mind if that changed this February, I just wish it wouldn’t have to come in a year when Eli wasn’t so awful.

4. 49ers
The 49ers destroyed my 10-to-1 Championship Games parlay last season when they completed a 17-point comeback against the Falcons and won the NFC. I’m still upset about that when it comes to the 49ers, but nothing else.

5. Panthers
I’m still mad at the Panthers for their Super Bowl XXXVIII loss to the Patriots that gave the Patriots their second Super Bowl in three years. And I’m still mad at the Panthers, well mainly just Jake Delhomme, for destroying that divisional round game against the Cardinals in 2008 with five interceptions, costing me the Panthers -10 pick. But it’s 2013 and the Panthers’ Super Bowl loss to the Patriots was a decade ago (and if the Patriots don’t win Super Bowl XLVIII we will enter 2014 with it being a decade since their last championship despite many acting as though they won it as recently as last February) and Jake Delhomme is no longer a Panther or an NFL quarterback. And wouldn’t you be excited to watch the Panthers’ Super Bowl XLVIII DVD with the story about how Ron Rivera went from as close to being fired as you can be to leading the 1-2 Panthers to a championship?

6. Chiefs
If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl then that means the Eagles didn’t win the Super Bowl and it means Andy Reid has won a Super Bowl and the Philadelphia Eagles organization still hasn’t and that means chaos for the city of Philadelphia and Eagles fans. But if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl it means that Alex Smith was the quarterback who led them there and I’m not sure I want anything to do with a sport in which Alex Smith is a winner and possibly Super Bowl MVP.

7. Saints
Jeremy Shockey isn’t there to win another Super Bowl, so the Saints have moved up from their No. 8 spot in 2010. And without Shockey there, aside from Sean Payton wearing a visor, I have nothing against the Saints except for how they screwed me in the final minute against the Patriots and how they screwed me again against the Jets. The only reason I don’t want the Saints to win the Super Bowl is because everything I have come to believe about them and written about them and how they are a different team outside the Superdome will all be meaningless. And that’s because if the Saints win the Super Bowl, they will have won four road games and four outdoor games and that’s a scientific impossibility.

8. Seahawks
In a world where college coaches will do anything and I mean anything to get a better job, Pete Carroll is the poster boy for how to get ahead after he left USC with a two-year bowl ban and the elimination of 30 football scholarships for another shot at the NFL. Back in 2010, I didn’t care if the Seahawks won the Super Bowl (despite those things) and had them ranked third, but they aren’t entering the playoffs as a 7-9 division winner looking to make a mockery of the NFL’s postseason format, so that’s why they have fallen.

9. Packers
Here’s what I wrote about the Packers in my Week 15 Picks:

Since Aaron Rodgers has become the Packers starting quarterback, here’s how their seasons have finished:

2008: Missed playoffs
2009: Lost in Wild-Card round
2010: Won Super Bowl
2011: Lost in divisional round (first game)
2012: Lost in divisional round after beating Joe Webb and the Vikings in the Wild-Card round

So in the last five years with Rodgers as the starter, the Packers have won five playoff games with four of them coming in the same year. And if the “Miracle at the Meadowlands” doesn’t happen, the Packers don’t even make the playoffs in 2010 let alone win the Super Bowl.

I wrote all that because I was trying to show that Aaron Rodgers isn’t worthy of the “Best Player in the League” title he has seemingly been given in a league that boasts maybe the best two quarterbacks in the history of the game and the most dominant running back since Barry Sanders. And after two months without him playing, all it took was one season-saving 48-yard touchdown pass for everyone to push Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Adrian Peterson and others like Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy aside for the Aaron Rodgers Is The Best campaign to return to form.

10. Chargers
In the same season in which Eli Manning threw 27 interceptions and lost to Philip Rivers and the Giants went 7-9 and missed the playoffs, it would be very bad if Rivers and the Chargers then went on to win the Super Bowl. I want the 2013 Giants season to be gone and forgotten and right now that process has started, but if the team Eli Manning said he wouldn’t play for and the quarterback the Giants would have possibly then had win the Super Bowl, Eli Manning and especially 2013 Eli Manning will be at the forefront of Super Bowl storylines for the next month.

11. Patriots
I once wrote how a Red Sox-Mets World Series would be the worst possible championship scenario for me and I’m thankful that I was only a month old when that scenario was created in 1986. My last two teams present the second-worst possible championship scenario for me.

Nothing has changed for me and my feelings for the Patriots over the last three years and because of that, here is what I wrote about them then:

There is no way I want the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. None at all. I would rather walk across the George Washington Bridge naked, during rush hour, while it’s freezing rain than see the Patriots win.

However, a Patriots’ championship would put a serious damper on the possibility of adding more chapters to The Last Night of the Patriots Dynasty book that I plan to write with Mike Hurley.

12. Eagles
This is my nightmare! Well, it’s just one of my nightmares. My real nightmare happened in October and October 2007 and October 2004. My hatred for the Eagles is so strong that last week I found myself rooting for the Cowboys in the winner-take-all Week 17 game and actually felt a little depressed after Kyle Orton ended the game with a Tony Romo-esque interception. That’s what the Eagles can do to me. They can make me not only root for the nearly-equally-hated Cowboys, but also have a Cowboys loss negatively change my mood when I should be happy and celebrating Jerry Jones’ Dallas disaster going another year without a Super Bowl.

If Philadelphia trades Cliff Lee to the Yankees between now and Super Bowl XLVIII I’m willing to at least think about changing their spot. But without The One That Got Away holding a Yankee Stadium press conference between now and Feb. 2, I want to hear anything but “Fly, Eagles Fly.”

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Blogs • Giants

Jan 2, 2014

NFL Wild-Card Weekend Picks

The regular season is over and that means the Giants’ season is over, but it also means the postseason is here and so are the postseason picks.

While this past Monday served as Black Monday for many head coaches around the league, it held a different meaning for New York Football Giants fans like myself. This past Monday was a reminder that the Giants won’t be playing this weekend (even if didn’t matter if they were playing for the last five weekends) and they won’t be playing again until next September. If you were to get pregnant or get someone pregnant today, there’s a chance your baby would be born (a little premature) by the time the Giants play their next real game. The Monday following Week 17 has now meant nothing for the Giants in four of the last five seasons.

The only news to come from the Giants since their season ended with a win over the Redskins (a game that was played in such miserable weather conditions that any fan who attended the game needs to seriously reevaluate their life and priorities and think about doing something constructive on Sundays rather than watching a 6-9 team face a 3-12 team in a monsoon) is that Eli Manning will likely get an extension despite his historically bad season. (If only all jobs could be handled this way.) For the Giants and their fans, January will once again be a depressing month with no non-monetary-related rooting interest in the playoffs. The only positive to come out of the worst Giants season in a decade is the reported retirement of offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride. Aside from that, there’s no point in looking back at the disastrous season that started 0-6, but could have been saved in Week 12 against the Cowboys.

The holidays are over and it’s January, which begins the two-month winter gauntlet (though this year is a little less gauntlet-ish thanks to Winter Olympics hockey) before spring training and March Madness carry us into Opening Day. And what better way to kick January off than with a New York City blizzard that’s supposed to start on Thursday night? How about a high temperature on Friday of 17 degrees and a low of 4 degrees? Yes, it’s officially winter and that means the NFL postseason is here and so are the NFL Playoff Picks.

INDIANAPOLIS -2 over Kansas City
Let me start this by saying that the first thing I did when the lines came out for Wild-Card Weekend was to see what a parlay with the four underdogs (Chiefs, Saints, Chargers and Packers) is worth and it’s 29-to-1 odds. Unfortunately, I’m only a believer in one of the four underdogs this weekend.

The Chiefs have had an odd calendar year, considering they finished 2-14 in 2012, which was good enough for worst in the NFL and landed them the No. 1 pick. Then they hired Andy Reid, traded for Alex Smith, started the season 9-0 and finished the season 11-5. When it comes to looking at the 2013 Chiefs, they were essentially two teams: the Pre-Bye Chiefs and Post-Bye Chiefs.

The Pre-Bye Chiefs were 9-0 and never allowed more than 17 points in game and allowed a total of 111 points (an average of 12.3 per game). The Post-Bye Chiefs were 2-5, only beating the Redskins and Raiders, and allowed 194 points (an average of 27.7 per game). The Chiefs’ pre-bye success was presumably built by their defense, but in reality, it was built by their schedule that included home games against the Cowboys, Giants, Raiders, Texans and Browns and road games against the Jaguars, Michael Vick Eagles, Titans and Bills. The Chiefs went 1-5 against playoff teams this season and their only win came in Week 3 against the Michael Vick Eagles in a game in which the Eagles had five turnovers.

When these two teams meet on Saturday, it will only have been 13 days since the Colts ran the Chiefs out of Arrowhead with a 23-7 win thanks to four Chiefs turnovers. But it’s not only because of this recent result or how shaky the Post-Bye Chiefs have been that I’m taking the Colts here. It’s also because of how Andy Reid chose to play Week 17 against the Chargers.

Sure, the JV Chiefs nearly beat the This-Game-Means-Everything Chargers in San Diego, but Reid did that game, the game of football as a whole, the playoff picture and his own team a disservice by playing the “B” team and not trying to do everything he could to win the game and eliminate the Chargers. The Chiefs earned the right to play (or not play) their Week 17 game however they chose, but history tells us that using Week 17 as a bye week and taking your foot off the gas entering January usually backfires.

New Orleans +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 16 Picks:

If this game were at the Superdome, I would be all about the Saints like always. But on the road, I’m going against them … like always.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 15 Picks:

Inside the Superdome, the Saints are the best team in the NFL. Outside the Superdome, the Saints are one of the 10 worst teams in the league and maybe even worse than that.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 14 Picks:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 15 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7, 17, 18, 32 and 3.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 13 Picks:

It’s the battle for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with the current 1-seed playing the current 2-seed. If this game were in the Superdome, there’s no doubt the Saints would win. It’s actually a guarantee they would win. But like always, when you take the Saints out of the Superdome they aren’t the Saints.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 12 Picks:

It’s never a good idea to trust the Saints to cover outside of the Superdome.

I could keep going, but I think the pattern is pretty easy to pick up. The Superdome Saints were 8-0 this year with an average win of 34.0-15.6. The Outside-the-Superdome Saints were 3-5 with an average loss of 22.4-17.8.

Absolutely everything about this game says, “Don’t pick the Saints, Neil! Don’t pick the effing Saints, Neil!” in the same voice that Eli uses to yell his feelings to Matthew about sleeping with Danielle in The Girl Next Door. But guess what: I’m not listening to stats and logic and everything I have written about the Saints in 2013 and I’m not listening to Eli.

There are two teams I desperately don’t want to see win the Super Bowl: the Patriots and Eagles. And since I’m driving the anti-Eagles bandwagon, I’m going to let my fandom interfere with math and science and the Saints’ recent postseason history and pick solely against the Eagles because they’re the Eagles.

CINCINNATI -7 over San Diego
The worst game of Wild-Card Weekend features the team that has screwed with me more this year than any other team: Ladies and gentlemen, the Cincinnati Bengals! Like the Saints, the Bengals can be viewed as two teams: the Cincinnati Bengals and the Outside Cincinnati Bengals.

The Cincinnati Bengals went 8-0 this year with an average win of 31.9-16.8. The Outside Cincinnati Bengals went 3-5 with an average loss of 21.4-19.4. At home, the Bengals beat three playoff teams in the Packers, Patriots and Colts. On the road, they lost to the Bears, Browns, Dolphins, Ravens and Steelers and needed overtime to beat the Bills. (As you can tell, none of those teams are still playing.) But what the Outside Cincinnati Bengals did doesn’t matter this week and won’t come into play until next weekend when they will either travel to Denver or New England. And the Bengals will still be playing next weekend because they get to face the We-Are-Kind-Of-Hot-Entering-The-Playoffs-But-Also-Backed-Into-The-Playoffs Chargers.

Yes, the Chargers won four straight and five of six to finish the season, but they also needed Ryan Succop to miss a 41-yard field goal to beat the Chiefs’ JV team in a home game with their season on the line. If not for that missed field goal with four seconds left, the Pittsburgh Steelers would be in the playoffs, and the Chargers’ season would have ended at the hands of quarterback Chase Daniel, who entered the Week 17 game with eight career passing attempts. The Chargers lost 17-10 at home to the Bengals just five weeks ago in Week 13. And when you’re losing to the Outside Cincinnati Bengals, things aren’t going to be easier against the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals’ last playoff win came during the 1990 season on Jan. 6, 1991. This Sunday, one day shy of 23 years, the drought will be over.

San Francisco -3 over GREEN BAY
The forecast calls for a high of 0 degrees and a low of -18 degrees on Sunday in Green Bay. Knowing that, I think Tom Coughlin might be content with the way the Giants’ season ended since they won’t be playing in Lambeau Field this January, which is probably for the best given his skin’s reaction to the Wisconsin winter in January 2008 and January 2012.

It’s been a while since the Aaron Rodgers Packers were home underdogs and when the two teams met let year in the divisional round in San Francisco, the 49ers were only 3-point favorites at home.

The Packers were 5-2 before Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone and during his absence they needed two one-point wins (Week 14 over Atlanta and Week 15 over Dallas) to be put in a winner-take-all Week 17 game in Chicago. And in that game last week, the Packers had a fourth-and-8 for their season on the Bears’ 48-yard line in the final minutes that resulted in a 48-yard touchdown pass from first-game-back Aaron Rodgers to first-game-back Randall Cobb. What I’m trying to say is the Packers hit an in the words of Ilya Bryzgalov “humongous big” parlay to reach the playoffs and possibly even more “humongous big” than the parlay they hit in 2010 to reach the playoffs (thanks in large part to the “Miracle at the Meadowlands”) before winning the Super Bowl. And thanks to the NFL’s imperfect playoff format, at 8-7-1, they get to host a 12-4 team.

The 49ers’ four losses this season all came against worthy opponents. They lost in Seattle, where every team not from Arizona loses. They lost to the Colts, who I called the weirdest team in the NFL since they knocked off not only the 49ers, but also the Seahawks and Broncos this season, while losing to the Dolphins, Chargers and Rams. Following their bye, they lost to a top-ranked Panthers defense by one point (10-9). And they lost 23-20 to the Saints in New Orleans, which included a very controversial penalty, and since you know my feelings on the Superdome Saints, any loss under seven points in New Orleans is basically a win for the road team.

Usually every team has at least one letdown game during the year (and in the case of the 2007 Patriots, it comes in the Super Bowl … yes, I had to) and for the 49ers, you would have to say it came in their 27-7 Week 3 loss to the Colts since their 29-3 Week 2 loss to the Seahawks happened in Seattle. But since Week 3, the 49ers have been as good and consistent as any team in the league.

Last week: 10-6-0
Regular Season: 114-132-9

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Blogs • Giants • NFL

Nov 7, 2013

NFL Week 10 Picks

The Giants are back from their bye week and hopefully the second half of their season and the second half of the picks season will go better than the first half.

The Giants haven’t ruined a Sunday for me since Oct. 6 when they lost to Nick Vick in Philadelphia. Since then they have played on Thursday Night Football, Monday Night Football, beat the Eagles at MetLife in their only Sunday game since the loss to Nick Vick and then had their bye week. So that means this Sunday a month without Giants-induced depression Sundays will be put to the test against the Raiders.

With the Giants playing the Raiders and the Cowboys in New Orleans for what is likely an inevitable loss at the Superdome where everyone loses, the Giants could be one game back with seven to play and one of those seven against the Cowboys. Before I talk myself into taking the Giants back and making it Facebook official again, I’m just going to get into the picks.

Week 10! Let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

MINNESOTA +2.5 over Washington
The Thursday Night Football record is now at 7-2 and with success comes expectations, which is the last thing I need as I wait for the other shoe to drop with my Thursday picks. But in my wish to have the NFC East cleared out so that it’s the Giants and the Cowboys down the stretch it means the Redskins need to start losing.

TENNESSEE -12 over Jacksonville
The Jaguars have lost by less than 12 points once this season when they lost 19-9 in Oakland in Week 2. Aside from that game, they have lost by 26, 28, 34, 14, 16, 18 and 32. So as I have said before, there isn’t a realistic line in which I would take the Jaguars and certainly not at 12.

Philadelphia +1 over GREEN BAY
The moment Seneca Wallace took over for an injured Aaron Rodgers on Monday Night Football, we all finally saw what the Packers are without Rodgers even at Lambeau. Now Seneca and the Packers get to face Nick Foles and the Eagles and try to put out the only flicker of hope Philadelphia sports fans have right now with the Flyers in last place, the 76ers expected to finish last in the NBA and the Phillies still owing Ryan Howard at least $85 million between now and 2017. I want nothing more than for Foles to add to Philadelphia sports misery, but I know how bad Seneca Wallace is.

Buffalo +3 over PITTSBURGH
The Steelers’ season is over. At 2-6 and 3.5 games back in the AFC North and 2.5 games back of a playoff berth the have nothing to play for. They are just a name at this point and if their roster of players’ team name were say the Falcons and not the Steelers then they wouldn’t be a 3-point favorite at home against the Bills, but thanks to their national following they are. The Steelers are an old, worn-out team and unfortunately they aren’t facing Jeff Tuel this week.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7.5 over Oakland
Is it 2012? Or 2011? Or 2010? Or any year other than 2013? The Giants favored by more than a touchdown? The 2013 Giants? If we’re going to make this thing work down the stretch where it’s the Giants and Cowboys fighting for the division and a home playoff game (yes, the Giants could possibly host a playoff game this season) then they are going to need to prove they are capable of a run. And proving you’re capable of a run means beating the Raiders by more than a touchdown at home.

INDIANAPOLIS -9.5 over St. Louis
Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road. Kellen Clemens on the road.

Seattle -6 over ATLANTA
The Seahawks’ four road wins have come by 5, 3, 12 and 5 points, so it’s hard to feel confident about them going to Atlanta and covering 6. But this will be the first game the Falcons will play since having their season officially ended and there’s not better than an elite team and a real true Super Bowl contender facing a team that has nothing to play for.

BALTIMORE +1.5 over Cincinnati
The defending Super Bowl champs are a loss on Sunday away from not being able to defend their title this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise since they are currently riding a three-game losing streak with those three losses coming by a combined 11 points and since they just lost after their bye week in Cleveland to Jason Campbell and the Browns. Even knowing all of this, I’m taking the Ravens.

Carolina +6.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Panthers’ five wins have come against teams with a combined 8-33 record, so this week it will certainly be the Panthers’ first real test since their 12-7 Week 1 loss to the Seahawks. The Seahawks, 49ers and Saints are the elite teams in the NFC, but the Panthers are in the tier right below them.

ARIZONA -2.5 over Houston
Yup, it’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Cardinals fan or a Texans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Denver -7 over SAN DIEGO
This line does seem high for a divisional matchup between a great team on the road against a good team, but I would rather lose with Peyton Manning than lose with Philip Rivers knowing that I went against Peyton Manning.

NEW ORLEANS -7 over Dallas
The Saints burned me in Foxboro with their last-second loss to the Patriots and then again with their embarrassing performance in East Rutherford. But the Saints never burn me at home in the Superdome where no opponent really stands a chance, especially not the Cowboys, who have one road win this season that came against the Eagles in Week 7. That’s not exactly the road resume of a team playing in primetime in New Orleans that you want to back.

Miami -3 over TAMPA BAY
Darrelle Revis said on Twitter that making $16 million and playing for the winless Buccaneers is better than making $12 million and playing for the 5-4 Jets. Sure, Revis has a point that getting paid 33 percent more is better, but have you heard the term “Revis Island” (that Revis recently trademarked) lately or anything positive about Revis? No, you haven’t because Revis is playing in the wrong system for his talent and abilities on the wrong team and wasting away in Tampa Bay in the Buccaneers’ 0-8 circus while his former team currently owns the 6-seed in the AFC playoffs. Enjoy the extra millions in football Siberia.

Last week: 6-6-1
Season: 57-71-5

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Blogs • Giants • NFL

Sep 19, 2013

NFL Week 3 Picks

It’s a busy week and that means a quick rundown for the Week 3 picks.

It’s a busy week, so let’s keep it short and sweet.

Week 3 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

PHILADELPHIA -3.5 over Kansas City
If Chip Kelly knew how to manage the clock in the NFL then the Eagles could be 2-0 with a chance to beat Andy Reid in his homecoming to be the best team in the NFC East.

BALTIMORE +2.5 over Houston

San Diego +3 over TENNESSEE
It’s the Must-Not Watch Game of the Week, so … Somewhere someone who isn’t a Chargers fan or a Titans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

St. Louis +3.5 over DALLAS
Are the Rams a team on the rise after their 7-9 season last year and impressive 4-1-1 record in the NFC West? Or are they just the usual Sam Bradford Rams? Even if they are only the Sam Bradford Rams, that should be good enough in Dallas against a Cowboys team that barely won a game in which their unnamed opponent turned the ball over six times and a Cowboys team that lost to Alex Smith and the Chiefs on the road.

Tampa Bay +7.5 over NEW ENGLAND
The Patriots don’t cover games. They still get the dynasty era respect, but they aren’t that same team. They will win enough games to win the AFC East and reach the postseason because of their schedule, but they can’t be trusted to win games for covering purposes. If you’re looking for that team, it’s the Broncos.

MINNESOTA -6 over Cleveland
I think the Vikings are better than their 0-2 record says they are because my girlfriend, a Vikings fan, makes me believe they are. So if they can’t cover against the Browns at home, I blame her.

NEW ORLEANS -7.5 over Arizona
The Saints at the Superdome against the Cardinals. That sentence should say all you need to know.

WASHINGTON -1.5 over Detroit
When you take a dome team out of their dome, bad things happen. The Saints and Falcons are unstoppable and unbeatable at their homes and while the Lions don’t have the same home success of those two teams, they play just as poorly as them when they are on the road.

Green Bay +3 over CINCINNATI
I want to buy into the Bengals and their bandwagon, which is running out of seats (I checked on StubHub and Craigslist), but against the Packers, even if they’re not the same Packers everyone is selling us on, I have to go with Aaron Rodgers over Andy Dalton.

New York Giants +1 over CAROLINA
The Giants aren’t playing for their season in Carolina, but they kind of are. A loss to the Panthers will start the “Only (some number) of teams have started 0-3 and made the playoffs” talk for every media outlet until next Sunday. So I have to pick the Giants to cover because I think they will win. They kind of have to.

MIAMI -2 over Atlanta
Remember what I said for about the Lions earlier? If you do, then you know that I wrote about the Falcons in that summary and what kind of road team they are.

SEATTLE -19 over Jacksonville
It’s the first college football line in the NFL in a while and it could be -35 and I would still take the Seahawks.

SAN FRANCISCO -10.5 over Indianapolis
The Colts are in a bad spot going to San Francisco with the 49ers coming off back-to-back losses. A very bad spot.

Buffalo +2.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Giants are 0-2 and the Jets are 1-1 and the Giants are being talked about like they are the Jets, while the Jets are being talked about like they are the … well, they are still being talked about like they are the Jets because everyone is waiting for them to fall apart. The only way for them to fall apart is to start losing games like a home game against the Bills.

Chicago -2.5 over PITTSBURGH
If the Steelers’ team name were anything, but the “Steelers” this week, this line would be probably Chicago -4.5 or higher. But because the Steelers are the Steelers and have the following and garner the attention that they do, they are only 2.5-point underdogs at home despite being really bad.

DENVER -14.5 over Oakland
The Broncos’ line are only going to keep getting higher and higher and higher until you can’t take them anymore. So take them while you can.

Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 10-20-2

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Blogs

Oct 4, 2012

NFL Week 5 Picks

It’s Week 5 of the NFL season and it’s time for things to turn around.

The same old Giants. That’s who the New York Football Giants are. A second Super Bowl in four years didn’t change who they were between Super Bowl XLVI and Week 1 against the Cowboys, so why would I think that back-to-back wins would change who they are before they played the Eagles? The Giants will let you down, build you back up, suck you back in and then pull the rug out of from underneath you and if two championships weren’t enough to change who they are then I just have to accept that things will never change.

I’m not sure what Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin and Kevin Gilbride were thinking when Eli threw a deep ball to Ramses Barden at the end of Sunday night’s game. It was almost as if they thought they were trailing by four instead of two and it was that play that led to a loss after they were bailed out by the refs to extend the game.

The Giants had a chance to steal a game in Philadelphia on Sunday night and they gave it away. Now they are 2-2 on the season, 0-2 in the division and have the only real easy winnable game left on their schedule this week in the Browns. A loss on Sunday would be as devastating as the loss against the Seahawks was last year before a series of improbable events led to the Giants winning the division at 9-7. If you believe in miracles happening in back-to-back seasons then you don’t consider Sunday a must-win game for the Giants. I’m not one of those people.

***

As for the picks, the NFL season is 24 percent over and I’m still in search of the elusive over-.500 week. That isn’t good. I have gone back to my roots and I’m stopping with the Thursday pick on Twitter and the rest of the picks on Friday. It’s time to shake things up and it’s Thursday for the picks going forward.

Week 5 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Arizona -1.5 over ST. LOUIS
Any other year and this is the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” But not in 2012 where te cardinals are undefeated and the rams are respectable. I got so used to just knowing that every NFC west game over the last few years was three point game an just take the points but not anymore. The NFC west is longer the worst division in football. That title now belongs to the AFC east

Atlanta -3 over WASHINGTON
The Falcons’ egg is coming. I can feel it. You can feel it. Everyone can feel it. I’m going to pick them one of these weeks when they lose and lose big and now it’s just a matter of correctly guessing when that inevitable week is going to come. It makes sense that it would come on the road against the Redskins, but I like it better to come next week at home against the Raiders leading into the bye week because why wouldn’t it come then?

Philadelphia +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I feel like I’m picking between the same team here. I can either go with the Team That Lets You Down that is home or the Team That Lets You Down that is on the road. When there are points, take them.

Green Bay -7 over INDIANAPOLIS
If the game took place in Week 1 this line would be through the roof. The Packers are still dangerous despite what the first four weeks might suggest, and I’m not ready to give up on Aaron Rodgers’ covering ability yet.

NEW YORK GIANTS -8.5 over Cleveland
If the Giants can’t blow out Brandon Weeden and the winless Browns at home with their schedule then pack up the balls because this season isn’t going anywhere.

CINCINNATI -3.5 over Miami
The Bengals have been so good to me this year. I picked against them in Week 1 and I picked for them in Weeks 2, 3 and 4 and it’s all gone according to plan. I would feel like I’m stabbing them in the back if I pick the Dolphins to cover against them in Cincinnati. But at the same time, the Dolphins have destroyed me this season, so maybe I should finally give in and pick them? I know that WFAN’s John Jastremski will tell me how the 1-3 Dolphins could be 3-1 if two plays had gone their way and he’s right, but I just can’t do it because they’re still the Dolphins.

Baltimore -6.5 over KANSAS CITY
The 2012 Chiefs and I are done. We’re finished. I don’t even want my stuff back. Just don’t call me or text me. I want them out of my life. I’m not going to let them hurt me anymore. And it’s too bad too because I really like Romeo Crennel.

Seattle +3 over CAROLINA
This game was so close to being the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” So effing close. The one thing holding it back is that the Seahawks may or may not be good (and probably aren’t good), but that decision hasn’t been finalized yet.

Chicago -6 over JACKSONVILLE
Chicago has been good to me and the Jaguars can’t change that.

MINNESOTA -5.5 over Tennessee
Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings! You’re the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” Congratulations!

Four weeks ago I never thought I would see the day when the 2012 Vikings would be giving anyone 5 1/2 points in a football game. Maybe 5 1/2 points in a PowerPoint presentation on how to set your franchise back at least a decade when you’re a field goal away from the Super Bowl, but not actual points in an actual game. But then again, four weeks ago I didn’t know the 2012 Titans existed.

Denver +7 over NEW ENGLAND
I interned for 890 ESPN Radio and the legendary Mike Felger in 2006-07. On Nov. 5, 2006 for the Patriots-Colts Sunday Night Football at Gillette Stadium in Week 9, I had to go sit outside in freezing weather as the ESPN Radio tent across from the stadium. The Patriots were 6-1 and the Colts were 7-0 and it was the height of the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning rivalry. People were insane for this game. The place was buzzing like I had never seen a regular season NFL game before and the scene hours before the game made it feel like a Super Bowl. It wasn’t buzzing because it was Patriots-Colts. It was buzzing because Peyton Manning was in town and Peyton vs. Brady will do that. Put these two guys on any teams and the atmosphere will be the same. It could be Patriots vs. Colts or Patriots vs. Broncos or Browns vs. Bills or Hoboken High School vs. North Bergen High School, it doesn’t matter as long as Brady and Manning are the quarterbacks. The Colts won 27-20 thanks to 326 yards and two touchdowns from Manning and four interceptions from Brady.

We haven’t had a Brady-Manning game since Nov. 21, 2010 in Week 11. It felt weird in 2008 when the Patriots played the Colts without Peyton and it felt weird in 2011 when they met again without Peyton.

This game on Sunday should be great. Well, really I just want it to be great because the Yankees are going to get the Sunday night slot and that means Giants at 1:00, this game at 4:25 and Yankees at 8:37. No, I’m not leaving the couch on Sunday.

Buffalo +10 over SAN FRANCISCO
What have the Bills done for me lately? Nothing really other than getting blown out by the Patriots, so I guess that has to count for something. In this league it’s risky to back a double-digit spread, but is it a good idea to take the Bills on the West Coast against maybe the best home team in football after being embarrassed by the Patriots last week? Of course not. But when have I ever been one for good ideas when it comes to NFL picks? But where has reason and logic gotten anyone in the 2012 NFL?

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over San Diego
Drew Brees and the Saints have nothing left to play for at 0-4 except for his touchdown streak. Saints fans know that their season is over, so if they’re going to bring their “A” game again in 2012 it’s going to come on Sunday night against the Chargers for this record. It’s not like I needed a reason to pick against the Chargers, but this is one.

Houston -9 over NEW YORK JETS
Getting nine points at home on Monday night football isn’t a good look. Th Jets’ season is in turmoil even more so than it has been in any other year under Rex Ryan and everyone is starting to find out that maybe Mike Tannenbaum isn’t the “smart SOB” he called himself in Hard Knocks two years ago.

Last Week: 7-8-0
Season: 27-35-1

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