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Tigers Take After Yankees with Big-Money, Free-Agent Spending

The Yankees leave cold New York for even colder Detroit where there’s snow in the forecast at Comerica Park and a powerful offense coming off a season-opening three-game sweep.

Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander

After losing in miserable fashion in miserable weather on Opening Day at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees bounced back to win the final two games of the series against the Astros. Now the Yankees leave cold New York for even colder Detroit where there’s snow in the forecast at Comerica Park.

With the Yankees in Detroit for a three-game series, Rob Rogacki of Bless You Boys joined me to talk about the contracts for Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, the free-agent spending on Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmerman and if the Tigers will return to the postseason.

Keefe: When I looked at the Tigers’ payroll for this season and $198 million, I was surprised when you consider they have lost or traded Max Scherzer, David Price, Prince Fielder and Yoenis Cespedes in the last couple years. But I admire what Mike Ilitch does with the Tigers and his willingness to spend and overspend his money to try and bring in the best players to win a championship for Detroit. Let’s take a look at some of that money.

Justin Verlander had a no-hitter going on Opening Day before eventually earning a no-decision. Verlander is coming off of an injury-plagued 20-start season last year, which came after his worst season (4.54 ERA) since 2008. He just turned 33 years old and is owed $28 million this season, $28 million in 2017, $28 million in 2018, $28 million in 2019 and a $20 million vesting option in 2020.

After watching what CC Sabathia has become over the last three years after he was a dominant ace for so long, I can relate to what Tigers fans are either going through or inevitably going to go through with Verlander.

Were you in favor of the seven-year, $180 million extension he signed three years ago?

Rogacki: There is always a certain level of concern when locking up a player for that long, especially when the Tigers were a couple years from the contract even kicking in when he initially signed the deal. However, Verlander was the best pitcher in baseball when he signed the deal, and keeping a Hall of Fame caliber player in Detroit for his entire career means more to this city than just his on-field performance.

While Verlander’s recent down-turn makes his $28 million price tag look like a payroll anchor, it hasn’t stopped Mike Ilitch from continuing to spend on payroll. I have been advocating for a couple years now that Verlander’s struggles were injury-related, and his strong finish to 2015 (and sharp debut in 2016) are reinforcing that belief. He may not be the best pitcher in baseball anymore, but Verlander is still capable of going toe-to-toe with anyone on his best day.

I’m still not sure what to expect from this Tigers team, but their first three games have been promising. We know that they will hit, especially if Victor Martinez remains as healthy as he looks so far. When healthy, this team is the most talented club in the division.

That’s the key, though. Health. The Tigers have struggled with injuries over the past couple years, and lost Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Anibal Sanchez, and Justin Verlander to the disabled list at times last season. All four are crucial to the Tigers’ chances this season, and if they falter again, this team could once again find itself looking up at the Royals in the AL Central.

I said that the Tigers would go 85-77 on our site a week ago, and haven’t seen enough to change that prediction yet.

Keefe: When it comes to Miguel Cabrera, we’re talking about even more money. He’s owed $28 million this season and next, $30 million from 2018-2 and $32 million in in 2022-23 with $30 million club options in 2024 and 2025.

Cabrera has been the best hitter of this generation and has led the league in hitting in four of the last five years, including last year. When the Tigers signed Cabrera to the eight-year, $248 million extension two years ago, I agreed with it and I still do. If Robinson Cano could get $240 million then Cabrera is worth double that. And if you’re not going to pay Miguel Cabrera, who are you going to pay?

What were and are your thoughts on the Cabrera deal?

Rogacki: Like you said, if you’re going to give any player in the game $240 million, handing that money to one of the best hitters in our generation seems like a safe bet. Cabrera has stayed productive through a few injury-riddled seasons recently, but is coming off of his first healthy offseason since 2012-2013. As we saw on Friday, he is still one of the elite contact and power hitters in the game, capable of driving the ball to all fields. His contract is somewhat of a necessary evil, but Tigers fans have embraced him as their own, and he will be revered for decades, whether or not he eventually brings home a championship.

Keefe: Five years ago, it looked like Justin Upton might be the best young player in baseball. He hasn’t kept up that production and has fallen off a bit, but he’s still only 28 years old (he turns 29 in August).

The Tigers gave him a six-year, $132.75 million deal this offseason to be their left fielder and the fill the middle-of-the-order production they lost when they traded Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets.

What were your thoughts on the Upton deal?

Rogacki: Maybe this is a homer-ish answer, but I thought Upton’s contract was the best big-money deal signed last offseason. Not only was he a necessary move for a club that otherwise planned to start Tyler Collins in left field, but the Tigers gave him an opt-out clause after two years, a “get out of jail free” card of sorts for their payroll. While the final numbers (six years, $132.75 million) look gaudy, this will ultimately turn into a two-year, $44 million contract for a slugger in the prime of his career.

Keefe: Also this offseason, the Tigers gave five years and $110 million to Jordan Zimmermann to fill the void in the rotation left by Max Scherzer before last season and by David Price after they traded him to the Blue Jays at last year’s deadline.

Zimmermann has spent his entire seven-year career in the National League. Does giving that much money to someone who has never pitched with regularity in the American League worry you?

Rogacki: Zimmermann’s history in the National League doesn’t worry me as much as his injury history. He is the first person in baseball history to receive a $100 million contract after having Tommy John surgery, and the Tigers don’t have an opt-out clause in his deal to escape that contract.

Luckily, Zimmermann’s deal is relatively modest compared to some of the massive deals that were signed this offseason. He’s a fair margin better than Jeff Samardzija, who signed for $90 million in San Francisco, or Wei-Yin Chen, who got $80 million from the Marlins. If he can stay healthy for the entirety of his deal, the Tigers will be in great shape.

Keefe: Last season was the first since 2010 that the Tigers didn’t make the playoffs and their first losing season (74-87) since 2008. After dominating the AL Central for the last few years, it’s seemingly become the Royals’ division with everyone else jockeying for position behind them.

What are your expectations for the Tigers this season?

Rogacki: I’m still not sure what to expect from this Tigers team, but their first three games have been promising. We know that they will hit, especially if Victor Martinez remains as healthy as he looks so far. When healthy, this team is the most talented club in the division.

That’s the key, though. Health. The Tigers have struggled with injuries over the past couple years, and lost Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Anibal Sanchez, and Justin Verlander to the disabled list at times last season. All four are crucial to the Tigers’ chances this season, and if they falter again, this team could once again find itself looking up at the Royals in the AL Central.

I said that the Tigers would go 85-77 on our site a week ago, and haven’t seen enough to change that prediction yet.

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PodcastsYankees

Podcast: Andrew Rotondi

The Bronx Pinstripes joined me to talk about the Yankees’ lineup and being worried about the health of the rotation.

Starlin Castro

Two down, 160 to go. After Tuesday’s 5-3 Opening Day loss in freezing temperatures, the Yankees bounced back with a 16-6 win over the Astros on Wednesday night to force a rubber match on Thursday at the Stadium. Hopefully, the Yankees saved some hits and runs for Mike Fiers.

Andrew Rotondi of Bronx Pinstripes joined me to talk about the Yankees’ first two games of the season, Starlin Castro’s amazing start, being worried about the health of the rotation, the frustrating Nathan Eovaldi, how the lineup should be built and what to do with Brett Gardner.

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BlogsYankees

Another Opening Day Debacle

Opening Day looked exactly like the wild-card game for the Yankees, as once again, both Masahiro Tanaka and the offense weren’t good enough.

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros

The coldest I have ever been at Yankee Stadium wasn’t for a Yankees game. It was for the Rangers-Islandes outdoor game on Jan. 29, 2014. Yes, an outdoor game … in late January … at night.

Even though my feet were frozen when the Zamboni came on after the first period and my $11 beer had turned to slush well before that and my fingers and toes were so cold that I stood in the corner of my apartment shower an hour after the game ended trying to avoid the hot water that caused the same sting sensation when both of your legs fall asleep and it hurts too much to move them, it was worth it. It was worth it because at least the Rangers won the game. They made sitting outside for three hours at the end of January for a game in which the play was so far away the puck wasn’t visible and having to freeze through intermission performances from Cee-Lo Green worth it. Because they won.

On Tuesday at the Stadium, it was freezing. Not as cold as that Rangers-Islanders game, but as cold as it could be for an April afternoon baseball game and colder than any of the previous Opening Day and Opening Night (2005) games I have sat through. With a chance to start the season with a win for the first time since 2011 and avenge the wild-card game to the same Dallas Keuchel and the Astros, the Yankees basically just continued the end of the 2015 season.

Outside of Starlin Castro’s two-run double in the second inning, the Yankees managed just three hits off of Keuchel once again with a fourth coming on a Didi Gregorius home run in the ninth in a failed comeback attempt. That’s right, a second baseman who can hit! The Yankees might have been able to use that last season when they were wasting 532 plate appearances between Stephen Drew and Brendan Ryan. Castro’s two-run double was almost enough for me to forgive Joe Girardi for hitting him eighth, one spot behind Chase Headley and six spots behind Aaron Hicks, but it wasn’t. The Yankees’ lineup against right-handed pitching needs to change and it needs to change now.

But outside of my usual Girardi lineup complaints, Masahiro Tanaka was his usual former ace self, blowing a two-run lead and lasting just 5 2/3 innings. Chasen Shreve looked like pre-September Shreve before Dellin Betances blew the game with a leadoff walk to Jose Altuve and an errant throw into Carlos Correa’s back down the first-base line. Jacoby Ellsbury and Headley combined to go 0-for-7 with three strikeouts, and after Ellsbury whined his way into this lineup way back in October, it Brett Gardner sitting Opening Day out in the same situation as the one-game playoff. But it didn’t matter that it was Gardner sitting out because when he got his chance, he struck out in his only at-bat when he pinch-hit for the hitless Hicks.

The offense was basically non-existent, the starting pitching wasn’t good enough and the bullpen couldn’t be the invincible bullpen it needs to be to make sure this season doesn’t end up as bad as 2013 and 2014 or as disappointing as 2015. It was every preseason negative fear about this team squeezed into one game. Thankfully it’s just that: one game.

There are 161 to go, but the off day tomorrow before Game 2 is going to feel as long as the six-month offseason, which just ended.

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BlogsEmail ExchangesYankees

Yankees-Astros Opening Day Is Wild-Card Game Part II

Opening Day for the Yankees will be a repeat of the wild-card game as they host the Astros with Masahiro Tanaka on the mound against Dallas Keuchel. Let’s just hope the 2016 season doesn’t being with the same result the 2015 season ended with after the Yankees were shut out at home.

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros

Opening Day for the Yankees will be a repeat of the wild-card game as they host the Astros with Masahiro Tanaka on the mound against Dallas Keuchel. Let’s just hope the 2016 season doesn’t being with the same result the 2015 season ended with after the Yankees were shut out at home.

With the Yankees and Astros opening the 2016 season on Monday in the Bronx, Ryan Dunsmore of The Crawfish Boxes joined me to talk about the wild-card game, the Astros having a true ace once again in Dallas Keuchel, watching the development of Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa and what the expectations for the Astros are following their successful season.

Keefe: I knew the Yankees were going to lose the wild-card game and every Yankees fan should have known it. Not only had the team limped to the finish line at the end of the season and blown a sizable lead in the division to the Blue Jays after the trade deadline, but they were dominated by Dallas Keuchel in June and August. In those two starts, both wins, here was Keuchel’s combined line: 16 IP, 9 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 21 K.

Sitting in Yankee Stadium during the wild-card game and watching Keuchel once again shut the Yankees down, allowing just three hits over six shutout innings with a walk and seven strikeouts was devastating. I thought if the Yankees could get Keuchel out of the game relatively early, which they did, that they could come back against the Astros’ weak bullpen, but they couldn’t even do that.

Through Keuchel’s first 47 games and 38 starts in the majors over 2012 and 2013, he was 9-18 with a 5.20 ERA. In the last two years, he’s gone 32-17 with a 2.69 ERA and won the AL Cy Young last season. After having the Roger Clemens-Andy Pettitte-Roy Oswald era and then going through a serious starting pitching drought in Houston, what’s it like to have that true ace again?

Dunsmore: It has been an absolute joy to have an ace back on the team, especially because it is Dallas Keuchel. As you referenced, Keuchel wasn’t expected to be a star at the end of those turbulent years he was pitching out of the bullpen. But he was worked his butt off perfecting his location and learning the “art of pitching”.

Keuchel will never be a flamethrower, he sits around the high 80s and the upper 90s. But what he does best is keeping the ball down and reading the batter’s swing. The scary part is that type of game translates well as Keuchel ages.

Keuchel is the perfect fit for this young, energetic team and the beard helps in the same city with James Harden.

Keefe: The Astros won Game 1 of the ALDS against the Royals. They had a 4-1 lead in Game 2 before losing 5-4. They won Game 3. They had 6-2 lead in Game with six outs to go before giving up seven runs and losing 9-6, and they had a 2-0 lead in Game 5 before eventually losing 7-2.

Were you upset after the Astros’ season came to an end, considering they held a lead in all five games and were six outs away from advancing in Game 4. Or because this version of the Astros arrived early, were you OK with the way the season ended since the team did reach the postseason and did win the wild-card game?

Dunsmore: I admit I was upset the Astros dropped the game for one reason and one reason only: the Royals didn’t hit the ball hard during the comeback during Game 4. Kansas City dinked and dunked its way to setting up the comeback. That is not to take away with the Royals, they battled in each at-bat and found a way to win.

You’re correct in your second part of the question. The ALDS loss gave the Astros experience, experience the team desperately needed. The loss will linger in the back of their minds, but losses fuel good teams like the Royals were fueled by the World Series loss the year before.

Keefe: I remember what it was like to have a first-round draft pick and shortstop finally get to the majors and be everything you imagined he would be. Carlos Correa, the 2012 first overall pick, burst onto the scene when he was called up to the Astros last season, hitting .279/.345/.512 with 22 home runs and 68 RBIs in just 99 games. He won the AL Rookie of the Year and became a catalyst at the top of the lineup for the Astros.

Correa won’t be 22 until September and is already one of the best players in the majors. Even though you had to suffer through nine postseason-less seasons, and four straight 92-plus loss seasons before last year, you’ve made it through to the other side and now get to reap the benefits of star young players. It’s easy to say it was worth it now, but when you were going through the last decade as an Astros fan, did you think you would get to see this day?

Dunsmore: I don’t think I’m a good example for your average Astros fan, I continued to watch 92-plus loss teams. So it did make things sweeter to see Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow’s plan “The Process” come full circle. It is really satisfying to see a team build a winner with prospects. The Crawfish Boxes staff has been able to watch prospects come through the system to now become key cogs in the Astros playoff team. There is more investment.

Your average Houston fan checked out for six years and didn’t come back until the final months of last season. As is the case with Houston sports not called football.

Keefe: It’s very rare that I truly like non-Yankees players, but Jose Altuve is one of those players, and he’s easily my favorite non-Yankee in the majors. To do what he does at 5-foot-6 and 165 lbs. (both of which seem like a stretch) is amazing. A career .305 hitter and three-time All-Star in five seasons, Altuve had been one the bright spot on some awful Astros teams. It seems like he’s been in the league for a decade, but he’s still just 25 and won’t turn 26 until May 6.

How long did it take you to realize how good someone of that stature could be?

Dunsmore: It honestly didn’t take long to fall in love with Jose Altuve. You can see the hustle at every moment he is on the field. He doesn’t have a gear lower than 100 percent.

He was originally told by an Astros scout to go home during international tryouts, but he returned the next day to win a contract. I think the Astros front office has to know how special Jose Altuve is since that day.

That is why the Astros have pushed him through minors from Double-A to the majors in 2011. He’s shown the hustle that everyone loves since he was still wearing those terrible black and brick uniforms.

Keefe: Last year, the Astros won the second wild card, beat the Yankees in the Bronx and had nearly beat the defending AL champions and eventual World Series champions in the ALDS. But seemingly every team in every sport suffers a devastating loss before they can eventually win and maybe what happened in Game 4 of the ALDS ends up being the Astros’ devastating loss.

The Astros were supposedly ahead of schedule with their success last season and now that the team has once again had success and has reached the postseason, their youth has experience in big spots and they’re no longer a team on the rise.

After the team’s success last season and now that they are the favorite to win the AL West, what are your expectations for the 2016 Astros?

Dunsmore: I expect the Astros to make the playoffs. I won’t say they are AL favorites or World Series favorites. The team seems like a few developing prospects (flash to A.J. Reed and Colin Moran) away from winning it all. The pitching staff has a high floor, but isn’t blowing anyone away if Lance McCullers is on the shelf for a long time.

If Houston wins the division, I will be happy and roll the dice from there.

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PodcastsYankees

Podcast: Evan Drellich

The Houston Chronicle Astros beat writer joined me to talk about the wild-card game, Dallas Keuchel and the Astros’ youth.

Houston Astros

The 2016 season will being the same way the 2015 season ended for the Yankees with Masahiro Tanaka on the mound against Dallas Keuchel and the Astros at Yankee Stadium. Everyone expected the wild-card game to go the way it did in October and nearly six months after the Yankees were shut out by the Astros in the one-game playoff, the Yankees have the opportunity to change the narrative when it comes to facing Keuchel.

Houston Chronicle Astros beat writer Evan Drellich joined me to talk about the Yankees-Astros wild-card game, the emergence of Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel over the last two seasons, the Astros’ impressive middle infield with Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, the perception of Colby Rasmus and Carlos Gomez in Houston and how the Astros will handle being expected to win following last season’s success.

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