This isn’t about what happened or didn’t happen on July 31. This is about the missed opportunities leading up to July 31 when the Yankees failed to address the one weakness on the team: starting pitching.
There’s a scene in the movie Heavyweights where, in regards to the state of Camp Hope, camper Gerry Garner asks camp counselor Pat Finley, “Did this place always stink this much?” Pat answers Gerry by saying, “No Gerry, this place used to stink very little. In fact, it didn’t stink at all.” Gerry replies, “Well, it does now.”
The New York Yankees are Camp Hope, and unfortunately, I feel like camp counselor Pat Finley (minus the overweight part), constantly needing to remind everyone of a time when the Yankees would do everything possible to try to win a championship. A time when saving some money wasn’t as important as trying to get to the World Series and when winning the World Series was more important than being fiscally responsible or thinking every prospect in the organization would turn into an everyday major leaguer.
The Yankees are the best team in baseball, or at least they were before 4 p.m. on Wednesday. They have the best record in the American League and are tied in the loss column with the Dodgers for the best record in baseball. They have accomplished this despite every single member of their expected everyday lineup and three-fifths of their expected rotation missing time due to injury at some point this season. They are on their way to their first division title in seven years, could possibly be the No. 1 seed in the American League playoffs, and might even have home-field advantage in a potential World Series. Despite their ability to overcome a seemingly impossible injury situation, their 103-win pace and their impressive play against the other postseason contenders, the front office still didn’t do everything it could to put the team in the best possible position to win a championship.
This isn’t about what happened, or rather didn’t happen on July 31. This is about all the missed opportunities leading up to July 31 when the Yankees failed to address the one glaring weakness on the team: starting pitching. It’s about not addressing that issue in the offseason or in the first four months of the regular season. It’s about a never-ending theme with the Yankees.
Even with Luis Severino (prior to his shoulder and subsequent lat injury), Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton set to be in their 2019 rotation, the Yankees could have signed Patrick Corbin or even Charlie Morton to be part of their rotation. They passed.
With Severino having not thrown a pitch in 2019, Paxton having spent time on the injured list and pitching through a knee injury, CC Sabathia not being good and also landing on the injured list, J.A. Happ being ineffective and Severino’s replacement in Domingo German also landing on the injured list and pitching with an innings limit, the Yankees could have signed Dallas Keuchel with draft compensation no longer attached to him. They passed.
The Yankees passed on every money-only option to truly improve their starting pitching and then balked at the high prices on deadline day. They failed to use their greatest resource of money on starting pitching and failed to expect such demand in return shortly before and on July 31. They backed themselves into a corner where the deadline was their only option and when it didn’t play out the way they envisioned, they were left empty-handed, acquiring only a 20-year-old minor-league pitcher shortly before the league’s only trade deadline.
The Yankees have tried in recent years to build a team which can win in both the regular season and postseason by creating a super bullpen, capable of shortening games to four or five innings. The strategy nearly got them to the World Series in 2017 before the bats went quiet in Games 6 and 7 in Houston, and it might have worked in 2018 if the manager had used his best relievers with the season on the line. So far, the Yankees’ decision to focus and spend on building the best possible bullpen while piecing together a rotation filled with inconsistency and injury concerns hasn’t worked out, and it’s likely they could be headed for the same fate this postseason.
This all started two years ago this month when the Yankees decided against trading for Justin Verlander’s contract when it would have cost them nothing other than money. It continued the offseason after Verlander single-handedly beat them in the ALCS when the front office chose to cut payroll by $50 million, coming off a season in which they were one win away from the World Series. It didn’t stop when they wouldn’t part with their prospects for Gerrit Cole, and it went on when they wouldn’t pay for Corbin, didn’t want Morton and didn’t care to add Keuchel. Every chance along the way, the Yankees have held on to their money and their prospects, worrying about next season or the season after, thinking their current success can be counted on year after year.
The Yankees could win the World Series with their current roster, though their chances would certainly increase if Severino and Dellin Betances return and return at their normal performance level. But Severino is one setback away from not being able to start a game this season and Betances is getting dangerously close to having his free-agent season be lost. The Yankees should have planned to not have either back, instead they now desperately need them both back.
For yet another season, the Yankees didn’t do everything they could to build the best possible roster. They were too cheap to pay for starting pitching and too attached to their prospects to trade for starting pitching. Too cheap to pay and too attached to their prospects to try to win a championship for the first time in going on a decade.
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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!
Former major league outfielder Shelley Duncan joined me to talk about playing for the Yankees and Scott Reinen of Bronx Pinstripes talks about the Yankees’ pitching issues.
Scott Reinen of Bronx Pinstripes joined me to talk about the Yankees-Red Sox series from the weekend, if Larry Rothschild should take responsibility for the starting pitching issues, James Paxton continuing to struggle as a Yankee, who the Yankees should trade for with Marcus Stroman off the board and which current rotation members should get postseason starts.
At the 25:38 mark, former Yankees outfielder Shelley Duncan joined me to talk about hitting home runs for the Yankees, the midges in Cleveland during the ALDS, playing under Joe Torre and Joe Girardi, the differences in playing at the old and new Yankee Stadium, his patented forearm bump and brawls in baseball.
The starting pitching is a very, very big problem. Normally, to me, a loss is a loss no matter the score, but having your rotation get embarrassed every night is a different story.
That wasn’t the best weekend. The Yankees lost three of four to the Red Sox and lost two games off their loss-column lead in the process. But that loss-column lead is still 10 games, and the division is still over. A bad week of pitching and a series loss to the Red Sox doesn’t change that.
Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees on this off day as usual.
1. The results of the last week aren’t as bad as you think. I’m not talking about the pitching (we’ll get to that), I’m talking about actual wins and losses. I wanted the Yankees to go 3-4 on their road trip and with Sunday night’s series-salvaging win, they did exactly that. Sure, they lost two games off their 12-game, loss-column lead to the Red Sox, but a 10-game, loss-column lead is more than enough of a comfortable cushion. Let’s get to my favorite game: If the Yankees play .500.
The Yankees have 57 games remaining, so they can’t play .500 baseball, so let’s say one-game-over-.500 baseball. If the Yankees play one-game-over-.500 baseball for their remaining 57 games and go 29-28, they would finish with a 96-66 record. The Rays would have to go 36-18 and the Red Sox would have to go 37-18 to tie them. The Yankees aren’t going to go 29-28 though, considering they have 23 games remaining against the Orioles, Blue Jays, Mariners and Tigers. The division is still over. This past weekend did nothing to change that. The Yankees’ magic number is 48.
2. The starting pitching is a very, very big problem. Normally, to me, a loss is a loss no matter the score, but having your rotation get embarrassed every night is a different story.
If the Yankees think this team, as currently constructed, is good enough to win a World Series, they are probably going to be let down and could be let down as early as the ALDS. This team has 2002-2008 written all over it with an offense that can outhit its mediocre starting pitching for 162 games, but isn’t built for short series in October. The Yankees have until Wednesday 4 p.m. to address this glaring weakness, and if they don’t, the bats aren’t going to be able to go quiet for a second in October, or the 2019 Yankees will be another division-winning Yankees team which failed to accomplish their ultimate goal.
3. Marcus Stroman is now off the board, having been traded to the Mets on Sunday in a puzzling move. The Blue Jays were willing to give up their best starting pitcher with team control through 2020 for the Mets’ sixth- and seventh-best prospects, and a team five games under .500 just enhanced their rotation, while the Yankees took more time off the trade deadline clock, inching closer to having to start CC Sabathia, J.A. Happ or Chad Green in October.
Stroman was always my No. 2 in this trade market with Madison Bumgarner sitting at No. 1. So this is potentially good news for me if the Yankees are going to do what’s necessary now to get Bumgarner. But it’s potentially bad news if Bumgarner isn’t available with the Giants’ recent surge or high price tag is high with the demand for him now greater. This could mean the Yankees have to look at lesser options like Matt Boyd or Robbie Ray or some other lateral moves who won’t really improve the rotation. Maybe the Mets only acquired Stroman to flip him to a contender, or maybe they acquired him so they can move Noah Syndergaard. Because it’s the Mets, I could see them standing pat, holding on to both starters and trying to make a run at the second wild-card spot even though they are six games back and need to pass five teams to get there. That’s probably what the Mets will do.
Game 1: Masahiro Tanaka Game 2: Domingo German Game 3: James Paxton Game 4: Chad Green, opener/bullpen
Even with the way Tanaka and Paxton got lit up and the way Green got lit up in relief, I wouldn’t change the order. German finally put together a respectable start to right the rotation, and while Tanaka got destroyed for 12 earned runs, I would still give him the ball in Game 1. Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t feel confident entering the ALDS against any opponent with this rotation, but this is the best possible order for it. If Luis Severino doesn’t return and return as his 2018 first-half self or the Yankees don’t trade for Bumgarner, the rotation isn’t getting much better. The Yankees are going to have to slug their way through the postseason or receive a miracle with these starters going on a magical, unexpected run for a month.
5. James Paxton is the left-handed A.J. Burnett, and we’re getting to a point where saying that is an insult to Burnett.
Back on June 13, I wrote This Is Not the James Paxton the Yankees Traded For. Paxton had just come off a start in which he got knocked around by the Mets (2.2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HR) and his ERA sat at 4.04 through 10 starts as a Yankee. Since then, Paxton has made eight starts and has pitched to this line: 40.2 IP, 57 H, 28 R, 25 ER, 15 BB, 53 K, 12 HR, 5.53 ERA, 1.770 WHIP. In that time, hitters are batting .333/.387/.526 against him. Yes, he’s allowed a 1.013 OPS against him since June 16.
Like Burnett, Paxton’s “stuff” is raved about with his no-hit history and high strikeout totals. But like Burnett, you never know which Paxton you’re going to get. Are you going to get the guy who pitched 14 scoreless innings against the Red Sox and Royals, striking out 24, in back-to-back April starts, or are you going to get the guy who has failed to pitch five innings in eight of his 18 starts?
Paxton isn’t going anywhere and he’s going to be given the ball in a postseason game. I wish between now and then he would find consistency from start to start, but he has never been able to in his career, so I have a hard time believing he’s going to find it in the next two months.
6. Part of the reason I don’t think Paxton is going to all of a sudden find consistency is because of Larry Rothschild. Whether you’re the pitching coach, hitting coach, first-base coach or third-base coach, you don’t want casual fans to know your name. You want to stay out of the spotlight, fly under the radar, be part of a major league organization, collect a nice paycheck and have about four months a year off. It’s not good that Rothschild had to speak with the media following Saturday’s loss and it’s not good that his name is becoming a household name for casual Yankees fans.
Brian Cashman and his staff have never known pitching. They have drafted an endless list of failures, have signed free agents to big-money deals only to have them flop and have traded for young, controllable starters who could never figure it out while wearing the pinstripes. The last trade Cashman made for a starting pitcher who worked out was Roger Clemens, and that was 20 years ago, and acquiring arguably the best pitcher in history wasn’t exactly a roll of the dice.
Cashman’s trades for controllable starters like Paxton, Sonny Gray, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Pineda, Javier Vazquez and Jeff Weaver all failed, despite those pitchers having success before or after they were Yankees. Outside of CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Hiroki Kuroda, Mike Mussina and El Duque, Cashman has failed miserably signing free-agent starters as well.
Cashman and the front office are the ones who have to approve and sign off on these decisions, but then it’s Rothschild’s job to either maintain the success the pitcher had prior to them being a Yankee or try to regain the success they once had, which is why the Yankees wanted them. There has always been this idea that Rothschild is one of the best pitching coaches in the game and it’s why he continues to get new contracts from the Yankees, but the growing sentiment of late seems to suggest otherwise.
7. Gary Sanchez is on the injured list with another groin problem, which means Austin Romine is the team’s No. 1 catcher, even though Boone said Kyle Highashioka would be getting equal playing time in what could be some offseason roster foreshadowing. So if Romine is currently the team’s starting catcher, why was he pitching in a blowout game on Thursday night? Is Aaron Boone that clueless?
Romine relieved Luis Cessa, who had thrown 18 pitches. In July, Cessa has appeared in four games, making three appearances since July 4. On top of that, he’s the 25th man on the roster and has no actual value to the Yankees this season or in future seasons. In a game which eventually ended 19-3, Cessa should be in until the game ends, whether it takes him 18 pitches or 81 pitches to get the remaining outs. Boone has done a lot of idiotic things in his short time as Yankees manager, but that decision is right near the top.
8. I have zero confidence in Zack Britton and if Dellin Betances doesn’t come back this season, I don’t know how I’m going to survive the eighth inning of playoff games.
Britton is going to receive special treatment for his name and not his performance and he’s going to pitch in the eighth inning or other high-leverage spots two months from now when the Yankees can’t afford to have him walking the park and failing to miss bats. If Betances doesn’t pitch this season, Boone is going to keep giving the ball to Britton in crucial spots because of his career resume, not his season resume, and because of what he once was, and not was he currently is.
Britton isn’t good let alone trustworthy at this point, and this is now going back to when the Yankees traded for him a year ago. I thought the more removed he was from his return from his Achilles injury the better he would be, but it’s been the opposite.
9. I don’t see how Clint Frazier could possibly still be a Yankee after 4 p.m. on Wednesday. He was passed over for Mike Tauchman when Giancarlo Stanton got hurt and passed over again for Cameron Maybin when Brett Gardner got hurt. There has been the need for a starting left fielder and plenty of at-bats for Frazier and the Yankees didn’t call him up. They can no longer use the excuse that he needs to play every day since he would be playing every day in the majors right now, so it’s clear it’s more than that and he has fallen out of favor with the organization for off-the-field issues.
It’s going to suck to see Frazier traded and get an everyday chance with another organization for the rest of this season and future seasons. What’s the team’s plan for 2020? Make Tauchman the starter? No. Bring back Gardner? Please no.
Maybe there’s a small chance Frazier survives the deadline once again and survives offseason trade rumors once again, but that’s quite the parlay that would need to hit. On June 18, I wrote Clint Frazier Doesn’t Have a Yankees Future, and it looks his tenure is close to ending.
10. Today is the Yankees’ first non-All-Star Game off day since July 1, the day after the London games. They have an off day again on Thursday and after that they won’t have one again until August 19. Starting tomorrow, the Yankees will play 21 games in 21 days, even with Thursday’s off day, thanks to a pair of doubleheaders (August 3 against Boston and August 12 against Baltimore).
Back on July 1, my July expected record for the Yankees (by expected record, I mean a record I would be content with them having) was 13-12. They are currently 13-10 with two games against the Diamondbacks remaining in the month. The Yankees can do no worse than my expected record. Next month, the Yankees have 11 straight games against the Orioles and Blue Jays and another three against the Mariners. August is when the Yankees’ can truly get fat again from an easy schedule.
The Yankees have the following things to do this season in this order:
1. Upgrade the rotation at the trade deadline 2. Get Luis Severino, Dellin Betances and Giancarlo Stanton back 3. Win the No. 1 overall seed to get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs 4. Stay healthy
The Yankees are going to the playoffs and everything they do between now and the last out of Game 162 is to prepare for the playoffs. That starts with Wednesday’s trade deadline.
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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!
Former major league reliever Steve Karsay joined me to talk about pitching for the Yankees and Mike Hurley of CBS Boston talks about the state of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry.
Mike Hurley of CBS Boston joined me to talk about the Red Sox’ postseason chances, if they will buy or sell at the trade deadline, the 15th anniversary of the Alex Rodriguez-Jason Varitek brawl, the state of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry and what needs to happen for the rivalry to return to where it used to be.
At the 24:46 mark, former Yankees reliever Steve Karsay joined me to talk about setting up for Mariano Rivera, what happened in the 2002 ALDS against the Angels, what it’s like to visit Dr. James Andrews and have surgery, being part of Joe Torre’s overused bullpen, the idea of set bullpen roles and being the only person to play under Torre, Tony La Russa and Bobby Cox.
The Yankees have a chance to embarrass the Red Sox in Boston the same way the Red Sox embarrassed them last year ago, and force the Red Sox to decide their immediate and long-term future by Wednesday.
Back on July 1, I wrote the Yankees clinched the AL East. At the time, the Yankees were coming off a two-game sweep of the Red Sox in London and had increased their lead in the loss column to eight games over the Rays and 12 games over the Red Sox. Since then, nearly a month of games have come off the schedule, and the Yankees have further increased their loss-column lead over the Rays to 12 games and have maintained the same 12-game loss-column lead over the Red Sox.
Worried I somehow might have jinxed the Yankees’ division championship chances with three months to play and plenty of games remaining against both the Rays and Red Sox, many Yankees fans were upset with me calling the division over with 80 games left to play. Well, there are now 61 games left and the Yankees have only increased their lead. The division is even more over than it once was.
The Yankees are 66-35 and they can play under-.500 baseball the rest of the way and still finish with 96 wins. If we set the bar that low and give the Yankees a 30-31 record over the next two months, the Rays would have to go 38-19 and the Red Sox would have to go 40-19 to tie them. But there’s no way, absolutely no way, the best team in baseball is going to play .492 baseball for two months, not with 23 games left against the Orioles, Blue Jays, Mariners and Tigers. Bring out the champagne and put on the goggles because the division is clinched.
Nearly a year ago to the day, the Yankees went to Boston for a four-game series needing to win three of four to stay alive in the division race and needing to win to maintain their first wild-card lead. The Yankees were swept and swept in embarrassing fashion, allowing the Red Sox to coast for the final two months of the season and putting a huge dent into the Yankees’ wild-card lead as well.
A year later, things couldn’t be more different. The Yankees are already in coast mode given the current math and remaining schedule, and the Red Sox are in the middle of a four-team wild-card race, scoreboard-watching every night. Not only are the Red Sox trying to close the gap on the Indians, A’s and Rays, they’re also trying to prevent their roster from being picked apart and sold off by next Wednesday. Another bad weekend against the Yankees and Dave Dombrowski might not allow the defending champions to continue to defend by moving impending free agents, potential opt-out contracts and salary to get a headstart on next season.
The best-case scenario overall for the Yankees would be for the Red Sox to do just enough between now and Wednesday to be buyers at the deadline and then they still don’t make the playoffs, wasting this season and destroying a chance to obtain future prospects and assets to help them in the future with the possibility of losing part of their lineup and rotation to free agency. There’s no way of knowing how the Red Sox will operate within the next six days or in the offseason, so the best-case scenario right now for the Yankees is to ruin this Red Sox season this weekend since that’s the one thing the Yankees can control.
The Red Sox are five games back in the loss column for the first wild card and two games back in the loss column for the second wild card. A bad weekend against the Yankees and the Red Sox will have one path to the postseason: the second wild card. Dombrowski would then have to decide if he’s willing to go for it with one postseason berth available, willing to go for it to play a one-game playoff on the road to advance to the ALDS and willing to go for it when his team needs to pass and hold off both the A’s and Rays for that one postseason berth. Ultimately, it’s Dombrowski’s decision to determine if the Red Sox are going to go for it this season or reset for next season, but it’s the Yankees who control his decision.
If the Yankees go to Boston and beat the crap out of the Red Sox for the fourth straight series this season then it would be hard for Dombrowski to not plan for the future with last season’s success and championship cushion to fall back on. If the Yankees go to Boston and either win two of four or finally lose a series to the Red Sox, it becomes nearly impossible for Dombrowski to not add or at least stay status quo at the deadline with the Red Sox still alive in both the division and wild-card race. With any result this weekend, the Red Sox have will have potential franchise-changing decisions to make in less than a week, and the Yankees can help decide what those decisions will be.
The Yankees have a chance to embarrass the Red Sox in Boston the same way the Red Sox embarrassed them nearly a year ago to the weekend and force the Red Sox to decide their immediate and long-term future by Wednesday at 4 p.m. There’s no pressure on the Yankees for a late-July series in Boston. It feels weird, but it feels great.
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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is available!
