It’s Week 13 and after 12 weeks of learning about each of the league’s 32 teams, you start to feel confident, well somewhat confident, when making picks. After going 34-54-4 through the first six weeks of the season, I went 36-31-3 over the next five weeks, only to lay an A.J. Burnett-like egg in Week 12 with a 4-10-0 week. But with five weeks left before the playoff picks start, .500 seems like a pipe dream at this point.

It’s a pipe dream because we’re now at the point in the season where more teams are eliminated from contention and on the brink of mathematical elimination and the motivation of the postseason and the Super Bowl is no longer possible. Instead coaching staffs, some who are coaching for their livelihoods, are forced to manufacture artificial motivation, which is hard to do in a sport where you’re asking players to sacrifice their own livelihoods on every play in a lost season. And that’s why after inching so close back toward the .500 mark, it’s going to be hard and likely impossible to get there when you don’t know what to expect from teams you thought you have figured out over the first 12 weeks of the season.

Week 13! Let’s go!

(Home teams in caps)

DETROIT -6.5 over Green Bay
Thursday is when I feel the best with my picks. With an 8-3 record on Thursday Night football this season, I get three games to try to once again turn my season around.

The Lions have lost 15 of their last 16 games against the Packers, which doesn’t bode well for picking a team to not only win but cover 6.5. But none of those games came across a recycled Matt Flynn, who couldn’t start in Oakland or Buffalo and needed Aaron Rodgers and Seneca Wallace to both get hurt for another chance in Green Bay.

DALLAS -9.5 over Oakland
It pains me that the NFC East will be represented by either Dallas or Philadelphia  either and it pains me even more that on Thanksgiving Day I will have to watch the Cowboys improve to 7-5 while everyone gets ready to write the “woe is Tony Romo’s career” stories. The only good thing is that I will get the “Tony Romo will never win” stories in a little over a month.

Pittsburgh +3 over BALTIMORE
When these two teams met in Week 7 I said:

Let’s go back to when Joe Flacco became the starting quarterback of the Ravens in 2008 and see how these two-game season series have gone.

In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and  13-9.

That’s 10 games with eight of them being decided by three points, one being decided by four points and one being decided by 28 (the Steelers had seven turnovers, yes seven turnovers, in that loss). Forget picking the Ravens to cover, is there a prop bet that this game will be won by exactly three points?

The Steelers won that Week 7 game 19-16. That means nine of the 11 games have been decided by three points.

This game will be decided by three points. And when you know that, how can you not take the points?

INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 over Tennessee
I will never figure out the 2013 Indianapolis Colts. Their wins have been against Oakland, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Seattle, Denver, Houston and Tennessee. There losses have been against Miami, San Diego, St. Louis and Arizona. They have wins against arguably the best three teams in the NFL and losses to three teams with losing records. In November, they went 2-2, beating the Texans and Titans both by three points and losing to the Rams by 30 and the Cardinals by 29. I don’t believe in the Colts, but I believe in Andrew Luck more than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Jacksonville +7 over CLEVELAND
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Browns fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Also, Brandon Weeden is starting.

CAROLINA -7 over Tampa Bay
Everyone is riding high on the Buccaneers  right now and how Greg Schiano turned the team around and is punching his ticket to another season and another chance in Tampa Bay despite everything that went wrong (and everything went wrong) in the first two months of the season. If the Panthers win this week and the Saints lose in Seattle (and the Saint are going to lose in Seattle) then the two teams will be tied at 9-3 atop the NFC South. That means the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ image reconstruction will be stopped in Carolina.

MINNESOTA 0 over Chicago
In Chicago, with Jay Cutler, the Bears needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Vikings 31-30 in Week 2. Give me the Vikings.

Arizona +3 over PHILADELPHIA
If the Giants season is over then I don’t want the road to the division title to be easy for either the Eagles or the Cowboys. The Eagles still have the Arizona (7-4), Detroit (7-5), Chicago with Cutler (6-5) and Dallas (7-5) remaining on their schedule. Their only easy opponent is Minneosta in Week 15, but that game is at Minnesota. Maybe the Giants can get back into it? What? I’m just kidding.

Miami +2 over NEW YORK JETS
The 5-6 gongshow that has been built in the AFC is an absolute joke, but because every mediocre team has a chance to make the playoffs as the 6-seed in the AFC, the Jets and Dolphins are still in it. Normally I would take the home team in a divisional matchup giving less than three points, but with Mark Sanchez saying he will be a Jet next year and back and better than ever, who isn’t pulling for a Jets collapse followed by yet another Jets quarterback debacle next season?

New England -9 over HOUSTON
The Texans are a disaster. They were 2-0 after their Week 2 win over the Titans on Sept. 15, but since then they are have lost nine straight games and six of the nine games have been decided by less than a touchdown. I thought that after Case Keenum took over as the starting quarterback and the Texans blew that big lead on Sunday Night Football in Week 9 that they could turn their season around or at least finishing strong. But since then they have lost three more games. Their season is long gone.

BUFFALO -3.5 over Atlanta
Yes, I’m still picking against the Falcons for costing me the 10-to-1 Championship Weekend parlay last season. And I plan on picking against them for that for a long time.

St. Louis +9 over SAN FRANCISCO
After Colin Kaepernick threw for 412 yards in the 49ers’ Week 1 win over Green Bay, I thought we were looking at the beginning of the next dynasty with the 49ers’ progression after their 2011 NFC Championship Game loss then their 2012 Super Bowl loss. But since then Kaepernick has only passed for 200-plus yards in two of the other 10 games and the 49ers at 7-4 are certainly one of the top tier teams in the league, but not what I expected them to be. I thought they easily be the best team in the NFC, but they aren’t. The best team in the NFC beat the 49ers by 26 points. If anything, the 49ers are the Colts of the NFC.

KANSAS CITY +5.5 over Denver
The knock on the Chiefs prior to the last Chiefs-Broncos meeting two weeks ago was that they could play great defense, but Alex Smith couldn’t take over a game when needed (like he he hasn’t been able to do in his entire career) and the only way for the Chiefs to win would be through their defense. The defense held Denver to 27 points on the road, but Smith wasn’t able to carry the team like everyone predicted. That loss must have rattled the Chiefs since the following week they scored a season-high 38 points against the Chargers, but allowed a season-high 41, against which was 14 more than they had previously allowed all season. The Broncos proved in Foxboro and also in Indianapolis that they are a different team on the road when the opponent is good and even with the Chiefs’ noticeable flaws, the Broncos as 5.5-point favorites is too much.

SAN DIEGO -1 over Cincinnati
Who’s that still alive in the playoff hunt at 5-6? Why its another AFC team! Yes, the Chargers, who started the year 2-3 and then endured a three-game losing streak in November, are still in the playoff picture. And the good news for the Chargers is that four of their five remaining games are at home where they have beaten the Cowboys and Colts and suffered an eight-point loss the Broncos, which is almost a victory. Meanwhile, the Bengals can’t be trusted to put away the AFC North and the Bengals certainly can’t be trusted on the road.

WASHINGTON +2 over New York Giants
This is actually one of those …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Giants fan or a Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Yes, this is one of  rhose games, but because it’s Sunday Night Football and everyone’s last chance of the day to wager on a game, a lot of non-Giants and non-Redskins fans will be betting on it.

It’s never easy picking against your own team especially when playing against a division rival who’s 3-8. But the Giants are 4-7 and virtually the same team as the Redskins. Neither team has anything to play for that point. The Giants aren’t making the playoffs. The team isn’t even talking about the possibility of making the playoffs. So what is the Giants’ motivation at this point? A winning season? Respectability? This team has suffered several second-half collapses during the Tom Coughlin era with their motivation being the playoffs. So now you’re asking me to believe that they are going to start winning games with the motivation being something other than playing for a championship? No thanks.

SEATTLE -5.5 over New Orleans
It’s the battle for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with the current 1-seed playing the current 2-seed. If this game were in the Superdome, there’s no doubt the Saints would win. It’s actually a guarantee they would win. But like always, when you take the Saints out of the Superdome they aren’t the Saints. And that goes for normal road stadiums. But CenturyLink Field isn’t your normal road stadium and the worst possible place the Saints could play their most important game of the season (see: Seahawks-Saints 2010 playoff game).

Last week: 4-10-0
Season: 75-94-7

I was going to fill this space with how big the Giants-Cowboys game is this week, but I decided that a game of this importance needs a lot more than the introduction to my picks, so I saved it for Friday.

When it comes to my picks, so much for Matt Christopher and Ice Magic and Pie Pennelli since my theory about the Giants’ success controlling my picks success was destroyed in Week 11. The Giants beat the Packers 27-13, but I went 5-8-2 for my first under-.500 week since Week 6, marking the first time the Giants won and I didn’t produce an over.-500 week. There are just six weeks left (and the playoffs too, of course) to get back to .500 overall and dig myself out of the hole I put myself in starting in Week 1 with the 3-12-1 disaster to start the season.

Week 12! Let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

New Orleans -10 over ATLANTA
It’s never a good idea to trust the Saints to cover outside of the Superdome, but when their road venue is also a dome and they are playing a 2-8 team with absolutely nothing to play for as they count down the days until the end of the season, well I guess that’s pretty much the same as picking the Saints to cover in the Superdome.

DETROIT -8.5 over Tampa Bay
The Greg Schiano Buccaneers lost to the Seahawks in Seattle in overtime in Week 9 before picking up their first win of the season over the Dolphins in Week 10 and then they won again in Week 11 over the Falcons. Suddenly the Schiano firing stories have stopped and there is talk that he might be coaching his way into staying with the Buccaneers for the 2014 season. Real life? Yes.

But I’m not buying into Schiano coaching his way into staying with the Buccaneers for the 2014 season. The Bucs still play at Detroit and Carolina, home against Buffalo and San Francisco and at St. Louis and New Orleans to finish the season. There’s a real chance, actually it’s likely, the Bucs finish the season 2-14, but even if they were to get to 3-13 or 4-12, given everything the team has endured this season, that won’t be enough to save Schiano’s job.

HOUSTON -10 over Jacksonville
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Texans fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Minnesota +5 over GREEN BAY
Since the 2006 season, the Vikings are 1-7 at Lambeau, including the playoffs, with their last win in Green Bay coming on Nov. 1, 2009 in Week 8 when Brett Favre threw four touchdowns against his former team. If Aaron Rodgers were playing on Sunday, I would have a hard time taking the Vikings no matter how high this line would grow. But when it comes to choosing between Christian Ponder playing for nothing other than to try and not embarrass himself or Scott Tolzien playing with the pressure of keeping the Packers’ season alive, I’m going to choose Christian Ponder.

KANSAS CITY -5.5 over San Diego
I’m not sure how the Chiefs didn’t manage to knock Peyton Manning and his two sprained ankles down in the biggest game the Chiefs franchise has played since their 30-7 loss at home against the Ravens in the 2010 playoffs. It was the worst job a team has done to expose another team’s weakness in a big game since the Yankees decided to not bunt against Curt Schilling’s hanging-by-a-thread ankle tendon/sheath thing in Game 6 of the 2004 ALCS. Thanks, Joe Torre! Eighteen-year-old me appreciates that managerial job!

Carolina +4.5 over MIAMI
So how about the Footballs Gods deciding not to bring the Panthers back to reality by having the officials pick up their game-ending flag only to run off the field, stealing the Patriots’ +120 money line from many on their way through the tunnel? If you thought the Panthers hype train was adding passengers and picking up speed heading into Week 11, well it’s traveling at full capacity at a dangerously high speed now entering Week 12. I looked up tickets for the Panthers hype train on StubHub this morning and standing room only tickets were going for $485 thanks to the national attention and love the Panthers have been getting from anyone with a microphone, camera or keyboard. Not only do all of these things add up to present a textbook recipe for disaster for anyone thinking this line is low and the perfect opportunity to try and double up on the mortgage or the first-born’s college tuition, but it’s also the perfect storm for the Football Gods to show up and remind people never to get too high or too low and on a good team in the regular season. This game makes a lot of sense for the Football Gods to show up and do what I thought they would do … last week.

CLEVELAND -1 over Pittsburgh
Just when you thought the Steelers were done at 2-6, they win two games and now are one game out of the playoffs thanks to every potential AFC 6-seed sucking. But the Browns are also right there, also at 4-6, and whoever loses this game can start making offseason vacation plans for the Monday after Week 17.

Chicago +1 over ST. LOUIS
In the four games that Josh McCown has seen action as the Bears’ quarterback, the team is 2-2 with their two losses coming by a combined six points. Not bad for having to start a 34-year-old backup, who had attempted just 61 passes since the start of the 2008 season.

Meanwhile, the Rams have had to use a backup quarterback of their own in 30-year-old Kellen Clemens. The Rams are 1-2 with Clemens as their starter (their two losses were a 14-9 loss to Seattle and a 28-21 loss to Tennessee) and are coming off a 38-8 blowout win over the Colts.

So in a battle of the backup quarterback, I’m going to go with the team that has something to play for.

BALTIMORE -4 over New York Jets
The Jets have alternated wins and losses every week of the season through 10 games, which means they should win this week if the pattern continues. However, after putting my faith in the Jets last week despite saying, “Everything about this game says I should probably pick the Bills,” and then not picking the Bills, there’s no way I can take the Jets again on the road … in Baltimore … against the defending champs … who are trying to keep their own postseason plans alive. Goodnight, J-E-T-S.

OAKLAND -1 over Tennessee
It looks like we have another of that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Titans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

ARIZONA -2.5 over Indianapolis
Not only are the Cardinals a surprising 6-4, but they have just one home loss (to Seattle). And not only are the Colts the weirdest team in the NFL with wins over Seattle, San Francisco and Denver, but losses to the Dolphins, Chargers and Rams, but they can’t be trusted on the road and to continue to produce epic comebacks.

NEW YORK GIANTS -2.5 over Dallas
I will get to this game on Keefe To The City on Friday.

Denver -3 over NEW ENGLAND
Things don’t usually go well for Peyton Manning at Gillette Stadium. Actually they go terribly. But if the Patriots’ secondary is as banged up as it looked in the fourth quarter in Carolina on Monday Night Football then this might be the easiest pick of the week.

San Francisco -6 over WASHINGTON
If the playoffs started today, here is how the NFC would look:

1. Seattle, 10-1
2. New Orleans, 8-2
3. Detroit, 6-4
4. Philadelphia, 6-5
5. Carolina, 7-3
6. San Francisco, 6-4

Right now, the 49ers would be the 6-seed in the NFC and would be looking at going to Detroit to face the Lions at Ford Field for Wild-Card Weekend. That’s a pretty drastic letdown from where the 49ers looked to be entering the season and even as they headed into their bye three weeks ago. But now at 6-4 with back-to-back losses and one of their six remaining games being against the Seahawks, the 49ers need a convincing, confidence-boosting win in the worst. What better opponent for that than the 3-7 Redskins (whose locker room has turned on each other)?

Last week: 5-8-2
Season: 71-84-7

I have said several times throughout this picks season that my picks success (or lack of success) has mirrored the success (or lack of success) of the New York Football Giants and as the Giants’ season goes, my picks season goes. Let’s look at the Giants’ score each week and how I did with my picks in each of those weeks.

Week 1: Cowboys 36, Giants 31 (3-12-1)
Week 2: Broncos 41, Giants 23 (7-8-1)
Week 3: Panthers 38, Giants 0 (7-8-1)
Week 4: Chiefs 31, Giants 7 (7-7-1)
Week 5: Eagles 36, Giants 21 (5-9-0)
Week 6: Bears 27, Giants 21 (5-9-0)
Week 7: Giants 23, Vikings 7 (9-6-0)
Week 8: Giants 15, Eagles 7 (7-6-0)
Week 9: BYE (6-6-1)
Week 10: Giants 24, Raiders 20 (9-5-0)

As you can see, the Giants’ season started off with the “Disaster in Dallas” and I had my worst week of the season at 3-12-1, which put me in a hole that I’m still trying to climb out of (just like the Giants). I continued to produce losing weeks during Weeks 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 just like the Giants and then in Week 7, I turned the season around when the Giants beat the Vikings and started their current winning streak to get back in the NFC East playoff picture.

This coincidence reminded me of a Matt Christopher (yes, THE Matt Christopher) book: Ice Magic. Here is the Amazon summary of Ice Magic:

A strange power is at work in the rink … Pie Pennelli loves to play ice hockey, but he’s got some problems: his hand-me-down skates are too big for him, and one of his teammates is always giving him a hard time. But Pie’s troubles really begin when his next-door neighbors find an antique hockey game. They swear the game is magic and can predict every play Pie’s team will make!

So according to Ice Magic and Pie Pennelli, it doesn’t really matter which teams I pick to cover. All that matters is if the Giants win or lose. And since they’re playing Scott Tolzien’s Packers, you would think this would be another successful week.

Week 11! Let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Indianapolis -3 over TENNESSEE
Whenever you start to feel confident about a team being a contender, the Football Gods will make you think twice about it. How many teasers did the Colts destroy last week when they were -9.5 at home against the Rams? I know of at least one. After hearing about how the Colts could make a deep playoff run and could possibly be the AFC’s representation in East Rutherford on Feb. 2, they were brought back down to Earth at the hands of Kellen Clemens and the Rams. I don’ feel confident in the Colts, but then again I have to go with my gut thanks to my 8-2 record on Thursday Night Football.

Atlanta -2 over TAMPA BAY
Yup, it’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Falcons fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Once again I’m still bitter over the Falcons blowing a 17-0 lead in the NFC Championship Game last year that cost me a 10-to-1 parlay with the Ravens over the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, so I don’t feel sorry for the Falcons or Matt Ryan or Tony Gonzalez or Falcons fans. I’m happy their season has been a disaster.

New York Jets 0 over BUFFALO
This is a dangerous, dangerous decision and probably a stupid one. I’m not talking about trusting the Jets in a divisional game or one that has been deemed a pick ’em by Vegas. I’m talking about trusting the Jets on the road following their biggest win of the season in a game that now has expectations for them since they control the No. 6 seed in the AFC. The Jets don’t usually respond well to being in a favorable position.

The Jets have alternated wins and losses this season and if you’re a believer in patterns then they will lose in Buffalo. Three of their four losses have come on the road and in their last road game in Cincinnati in Week 8 they were embarrassed even more than the Giants were in their Week 3 loss in Carolina. Everything about this game says I should probably pick the Bills, but eff it.

Detroit -2.5 over PITTSBURGH
The Lions are 6-3 with a one-game lead in the NFC North and right now both Aaron Rodgers Jay Cutler are out. It’s the best possibly scenario for the Lions with seven games left to play for a chance to get back to the playoffs after what happened to their season last year and even host a playoff game. Meanwhile, the Steelers might think there is still hope to their season at just 2.5 games back of the Bengals, but there isn’t.

Washington +3.5 over PHILADELPHIA
For the Giants, it would be better if the Redskins won this game, so that if the Giants win their game, the Giants, Redskins and Eagles would all have six losses and the Cowboys would have five. But if the Eagles win, then they improve to 6-5 and would temporarily take over first place in the division and if the Giants were to beat the Packers this week and the Cowboys next week, they still wouldn’t be in first. Let’s go Redskins!

CHICAGO -3 over Baltimore
The Ravens are 1-4 on the road and have lost at Denver, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Cleveland and going to Soldier Field even if it’s against Josh McCown is a recipe for disaster for this Ravens team.

CINCINNATI -5.5 over Cleveland
A very good home team against a very bad road team. There’s not much else there.

Oakland +7.5 over HOUSTON
Yup, it’s another one of those …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Texans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

For the second week in a row the Texans have made this Game of the Week and thanks to their loss in Arizona to extend their losing streak to seven games, they are here again. The Texans have now lost their last three games by a combined seven points and when you factor in their Week 4 overtime loss to Seattle (the game that Matt Schaub gave away), their season has actually been completely decimated by just a few plays.

JACKSONVILLE +7.5 over Arizona
Well, so much for picking against the Jaguars at all costs with any spread. The Jaguars’ win over the Titans last week gets them out of me always picking against them and coming off a road win, this line seems a little high against the Jaguars even if it’s the Jaguars.

MIAMI +2.5 over San Diego
I would think that the Dolphins’ loss to the Buccaneers coupled with their bullying situation is why the Chargers are favored here, but the Chargers don’t play well in the Eastern Time Zone and as always, I hate picking for Philip Rivers.

SEATTLE -12.5 over Minnesota
For some reason I don’t like picking for Christian Ponder to cover in Seattle.

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over San Francisco
Whenever I see a Saints’ home line less than a touchdown I just laugh. Why would Vegas want to make things easy? In case you forgot, here is what I wrote about the Saints in the Week 8 Picks:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 12 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

Since I wrote that the Saints have played two home games and won both, beating Buffalo 35-17 and Dallas 49-17. So add 18 and 32 to that margins of victory list.

The Saints’ two losses this season have come on that road (New England and New York Jets) and it’s going to be tough for them to get the No. 1 seed in the NFC and clinch home-field throughout the playoffs with the Seahawks at 9-1 and the Saints going to Seattle in Week 13. But if the Saints were to get the 1-seed, you could pencil them in all the way to MetLife Stadium because the Saints don’t lose in the Superdome. They just don’t.

NEW YORK GIANTS -5.5 over Green Bay
Everything has aligned for the Giants to come back from 0-6, win the NFC East and host a playoff game this season. Everything. The only problem is the Giants aren’t exactly cooperating. Last week they were unable to put away a bad Raiders team at home, winning 24-20, and did everything they could to lose, including fumbling the opening kickoff and another Eli Manning pick-six. This week they get the Packers and third-string quarterback Scott Tolzien, who has attempted 39 passes in the NFL. If the Giants win, they are one game back of Dallas heading into their Week 12 matchup with the Cowboys at MetLife. Just get to Week 12. That’s all I ask.

Kansas City +7.5 over DENVER
The supposed real Game of the Week in the battle for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Broncos are undefeated at home and have won by 22, 16, 32, 16 and 24 points at Mile High, but the Chiefs are undefeated everywhere and their defense against a banged-up and not-practicing Peyton Manning is enough for me to think 7.5 is too high for a divisional matchup with so much at stake.

New England +1.5 over CAROLINA
After the Football Gods reminded everyone not to get too high on the Colts in Week 10, it seems like it’s the Panthers’ turn to experience a setback with their five-game winning streak.

Last week: 9-5-0
Season: 66-76-5

The Giants are 1-0 in their last three Sundays thanks to Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football and that record will stay intact through this Sunday as well with the Giants’ bye this week. What I’m trying to say is that this Sunday will mark a month of non-depressing Sundays thanks to the Giants.

And like the New York Football Giants season, which my picks season has mirrored this season, I have recorded two over-.500 weeks the last two weeks for my first two over-.500 weeks of the season. But unlike the Giants, I don’t get a bye to regroup and the fight back to respectability (if it’s even obtainable) continues in Week 9.

Week 9 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

MIAMI +2.5 over Cincinnati
This week is an absolute gauntlet for lines with five of the 13 games featuring lines of 7 or more. But even with so much uncertainty across the league, I can always count in the Thursday Night Football pick to give me a win since I’m not 6-2 on the year on the much-hated Thursday game.

CAROLINA -7.5 over Atlanta
The Panthers are a frustrating team, but their only home loss came in Week 1 against the Seahawks, who might be the best team in the league, and they have won their other three home games by 25, 15 and 18. So when it comes to the banged-up, underachieving 2-5 Falcons, it’s the right decision, even if it’s an NFC South matchup.

DALLAS -10 over Minnesota
When the ESPN ticker said, “Christian Ponder will start for the second straight week,” I knew all I needed to know.

New Orleans -7 over NEW YORK JETS
A tricky, tricky game because the Jets are a different team in MetLife (3-1) than they are on the road (1-3) and the Saints are a different team anywhere outside the Superdome. But after what I saw from the Jets last week in Cincinnati, I wouldn’t feel comfortable taking Geno Smith to cover against Drew Brees since I’m not sure I feel confident the Jets can even score a touchdown.

ST. LOUIS RAMS +3 over Tennessee
It feels like the Titans had a double bye week last week since it feels like forever since I had to pick one of their games. After starting the season 3-1, they have lost three games in a row and their losing streak started when Jake Locker was injured. But don’t let the Titans semi-respectable 3-4 record fool you since their three wins have come against the Steelers, Chargers and Jets.

Kansas City -4.5 over BUFFALO
I really, really, really wanted to take the Bills here and pick for Thad Lewis, but now that he’s out and Jeff Tuel, possibly the worst quarterback of the 2013 season is in, I’m not sure how I can take the Bills to keep it close in Buffalo against the last undefeated team.

WASHINGTON 0 over San Diego
The Giants are 2-6 and still in the NFC East race. The Redskins are 2-5 and in even better shape in the NFC East race. Unfortunately, I think the Redskins will be there in the end. Not “be there” as in win the division, but I think they will be fighting right up until the holiday season with the Giants and Cowboys while the Eagles finish up another fourth-place season.

OAKLAND -2.5 over Philadelphia
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or an Eagles fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

SEATTLE -16 over Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is the new Jacksonville in that I would take pretty much any elite team to cover any spread against them. Sixteen points? That’s it?

CLEVELAND +2.5 over Baltimore
Is Jason Campbell the answer at quarterback for the Browns? Did I really just ask that question in 2013?

NEW ENGLAND -6.5 over Pittsburgh
The Patriots aren’t what we have known the Patriots to be since the 2000s, but that doesn’t matter against the 2013 Steelers at Gillette Stadium.

Indianapolis -3 over HOUSTON
This game badly screams, “TRAP! TRAP! TRAP!” but I’m going to do it anyway.

GREEN BAY -11 over Chicago
No Jay Cutler? This line seems low.

Last week: 7-6-0
Season: 51-65-4