NFL – Page 8 – Keefe To The City

Jan 21, 2014

The Last Night of the Patriot Dynasty

When the Patriots’ season comes to an end, the best thing to do is an email exchange with Mike Hurley and this time we look at what has happened to the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick dynasty.

The Patriots’ season ended with an AFC Championship Game loss in Denver and a year from now when the 2014 NFL playoffs are happening, it will be a decade since the Patriots’ last championship.

Since I met Mike Hurley from CBS Boston back in 2009, we have spent an inordinate amount of time talking about the Patriots’ dynasty and how 2001 to the present day has mirrored what the Yankees endured from 2001-2008. So with the Patriots’ latest run at a fourth Super Bowl being stopped by Peyton Manning and the Broncos, it made sense to send Hurley an email about the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era.

Keefe: I have been thinking since Sunday night how we are going to open our book The Last Night of the Patriot Dynasty. I have had a few ideas of how to best start what will be a magnificent piece of literature, but I figured it would be best to consult with you over the opening

The only difference with our book and Buster Olney’s book (The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty), which we plan on modeling ours after, is that he had a definitive answer to when the last night of the 1996-2001 dynasty was. So I guess my first question would be: When was the last night of the Patriot dynasty?

Was it that 2005 playoff loss to the Broncos? Was it the 2006 AFC Championship Game loss to the Colts? Was it the Super Bowl XLII loss to the Giants? Was it Sunday night in Denver? Before we get into the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era and whether or not the duo will ever get that fourth Super Bowl, I need to know when the dynasty ended. Or has it not ended?

Hurley: Hi, Neil. As I read through your email, I could see a vivid picture of you wearing a gleeful smile while tap-tap-tapping away at your keyboard, typing about the downfall of the Patriots. This ought to be a fun time.

To me, the dynasty ended in Denver in 2005, but only in retrospect. At the time, you couldn’t have known the dynasty was over, because they could have gone on to win in ’06 and ’07, and they would have had five Super Bowls seven years. The dynasty would have been alive and well.

But by my definition of a dynasty (there’s no real definition), you have to win championships in clusters. And the Patriots haven’t done that for nine years running.

Keefe: Nine years seems like a long time because it’s Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick Patriots we’re talking about. I know how long that can feel because I watched the Derek Jeter/Mariano Rivera/Jorge Posada/(somewhat) Andy Pettitte Yankees go nine years without a championship while spending a bajillion dollars trying to win one from 2001-2008. But really when you think about it, nine years isn’t long at all for one team to go championship-less. I bet in the offseason leading into the 1970 NFL season, the Jets thought they had a team capable of repeating. Now here we are 45 years since Joe Namath upset the Baltimore Colts and the Jets have never even gone back to the Super Bowl, let alone win it again.

But when you win three in four years, make two more since then and lose three AFC Championship Games since then and your only “down” season in the last decade happened to be when your franchise quarterback was knocked out for the year in the first game of the season and his backup (who hadn’t started since high school) went 11-5, there’s going to be pressure. There has been this aura around the 2005-2013 Patriots the way there was for the 2001-2008 Yankees in that everyone just always expected them be there in the end because that’s what they had gotten used to. But like the Patriots’ heartbreaking losses in the 2006 AFC Championship Game, Super Bowl XLII and Super Bowl XLVI, the Yankees had the 2001 World Series, 2003 World Series and 2004 ALCS.

Last week you wrote about how Boston sports fans shouldn’t take for granted the run the Patriots are on, even if they were to lose on Sunday (which they did) and that other organizations would do unthinkable things just to reach the playoffs, let alone assume they are going to be in the AFC Championship Game.

So why is it that the Patriots are viewed as having a letdown year once again after going 12-4, winning the AFC East again, earning a first-round bye and winning a divisional round game? Are Boston fans who are on life tilt being ridiculous?

Hurley: I think anyone who is freaking out about the loss is definitely overreacting, and as much as I believe that it’s incredibly rare for a team to be able to accomplish this kind of sustained success in terms of winning seasons, I think the Patriots will forever be a victim of their own success. It wouldn’t make sense for all the fans to be happy with just reaching the conference title game when that team built its reputation as a regular Super Bowl champion.

On top of that is the fact that the Patriots no doubt left at least one but maybe two Super Bowls on the board. They should have won in ’06, but they flat-lined in Indy, and they should have won in ’07, but they got smacked in the mouth and had no idea how to respond. And on top of THAT, you’ve got the ever-present reality that the “window is closing” for Brady. Surrounding him with rookies (Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins) and nobodies (hi, Matthew Mulligan) while kicking Wes Welker to the curb is a really odd way for the Patriots to do business when their quarterback is 36 years old.

So I think you add all those things together, and that explains most of why people are upset around here. But I think folks will have a much bigger problem with the way things are after Brady retires. That’s not going to be very fun.

Keefe: Well, at this rate, maybe Brady will never retire? I think it would be better that way. Just like I think it would be better if Derek Jeter plays forever and if this whole Mariano Rivera retirement thing were just a big joke.

When it comes to Brady, it’s definitely weird that his receiving corps without Rob Gronkowski is atrocious. Julian Edelman became the newest version of Wes Welker (I’m only saying that because I know how much you hate when people say that) and he was a defensive back being asked to defend Victor Cruz two years ago. Danny Amendola didn’t really pan out this year the way people thought he would when Welker left (maybe I can insert our GChat conversation about Amendola) and someone named Matthew Mulligan caught a touchdown pass this season.

The Broncos clearly see their window built around Peyton Manning and have planned accordingly by giving him more receiving threats than the entire AFC East has combined. What I don’t get is how the Patriots don’t realize their window is built around their quarterback as well and all they have done since their last championship is continue to take away each of his favorite receivers. They didn’t want to pay Deion Branch and it cost them in 2006. They got rid of Randy Moss in 2010 for nothing. They low-balled Wes Welker. Why do the Patriots operate this way?

Hurley: Back in the Branch days, Belichick likely felt invincible. Winning three Super Bowls tends to have that effect. All that needless game of hardball did was take a surefire championship away from Brady and the Patriots. Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel didn’t work out — who could have known??!!

Moss was different because his skills declined rapidly and he had no idea how to adjust. He became a jackass and they got rid of him as quickly as possible.

Other notable negotiations gone wrong came with two staples of the franchise — Vince Wilfork and Logan Mankins. Both eventually agreed to long-term deals, with Mankins even becoming the highest-paid guard in the league, but the Patriots didn’t make it easy.

And then there is Welker. I contended immediately after he signed with Denver that it was something personal with Bill, and that much was essentially confirmed Monday when Belichick went out of his way to call out Wes for “one of the worst plays I’ve seen.” It was a simple football play that was worthy of a flag only because of its timing, and Bill wants to make it out to be aggravated assault. What a joke.

If Bill wants to be mad about something, he should mad at the GM who treated the franchise leader in receptions and the best friend of the Hall of Fame quarterback like a piece of dirt, all but begging him to leave via free agency. But, well, Bill is the GM, and I’m not sure he’s excellent at that job. Great coach for sure, and he made a good number of key signings to complement those Super Bowl rosters, but he hasn’t been able to build a championship team since losing the players left over from the Parcells/Carroll eras.

Keefe: Tom Brady started his postseason career with a 10-0 record and is since 8-8. No, he doesn’t play defense (like Plaxico), but aside from that blowout of the Tim Tebow Broncos in 2011, he has put together a stretch of mediocre playoff games.

On Sunday, he admitted he wishes there was more he could have done to help the team and this was a week after the Patriots destroyed the Colts with their running game, a game in which Brady wasn’t asked to do much. And on Sunday, Brady seemed way off the mark on deep balls that would have changed the momentum, feel and potentially the outcome of the games on throws he would have complete in the pass. Was that on TB12 or the cast of receiving characters we mentioned earlier?

No athlete gets better with age, especially as they approach 40. Well, unless their name is Barry Bonds and their fitted hat size suddenly becomes 19 1/4. I don’t think Tom Brady is done. Far from it. But how do you explain these last few years of postseason mediocrity?

Hurley: Well this weekend, I think Brady was just OK. He didn’t go all Andy Dalton on us, but with his team having so much less talent than the Broncos, Brady needed to be exceptional. And he wasn’t. It was likely a combination of being sick and also the fact that weird things happen to Brady and the Patriots every time they go to Denver. In the Brady/Belichick era, they’re now 2-5 in Denver, and that includes two devastating playoff losses. But still, if he hadn’t been throwing to Michael Hoomanawanui, Matthew Mulligan (he only had 23 catches at Maine) and Matthew Slater, he probably would have at least put together a more impressive statistical output.

You are discounting his 344-yard, 3-touchdown day against a pretty good Houston defense in last year’s divisional round, but yes, Brady’s been a pretty average quarterback in the playoffs going all the way back to the 2007 AFC Championship Game. I think each game has its own reasons. The Baltimore playoff games, in which the Patriots are 1-2, always seem to come on frigid, windy days that are unfriendly to quarterbacks. In the Jets loss in 2010, Brady threw an interception for the first time in three full months, and he looked like he had no confidence for the rest of the night. Justin Tuck ate him alive in the Super Bowl and made the quarterback’s job tough that night, and on Sunday I think he just didn’t have anything.

I don’t think he’s done either, as he’ll be 37 years old next season. Peyton Manning is 37 and he seems to be doing pretty well out there in Denver. I really think Belichick needs to feel the urgency (like, starting right this very second) to “load up” like he did in 2007. There aren’t a ton of great free agents available (Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker might be at the top of the heap), but back in ’07, Randy Moss wasn’t available. Belichick got him anyway.

I think the time is now to make a huge move for a great receiver (will Larry Fitzgerald squander his entire career in Arizona?), add another two in free agency, and give Brady the tools to actually compete. If they don’t do it now, we may never see Brady win another Super Bowl. And whether you love him or hate him, you have to admit that’s a tremendous waste of Hall of Fame talent.

Keefe: It’s a tremendous waste of talent because I do like Tom Brady because he’s a Yankees fan, but I’m happy the Patriots continue to not give him the necessary pieces to succeed because if they were to give him real NFL receivers, it would mean happiness for Boston sports fans.

Six years ago, the Patriots were one win away from football immortality and Tom Brady was one win away from ending any conversation or debate as to who the best quarterback of all time is. A fourth Super Bowl in seven years to cap off a perfect season would have been one of the most unbelievable accomplishments in the history of professional sports. And even though the Patriots didn’t win that game, he still had the chance to get that fourth Super Bowl two years ago against the Giants once again.

He still has the three Super Bowls, but they came nine, 10 and 12 years ago. He’s certainly in the conversation as the best ever, but he isn’t the definitive answer he could have been. So what are we to make of Tom Brady’s legacy now even if the book isn’t closed on him yet?

Hurley: I had to deal with seeing the word “legacy” thrown around 24/7 last week in advance of the AFC title game, so thanks for bringing that back. Really, thanks.

Winning another one surely would augment his resume (obviously), but no matter what he’s done in the past nine years and no matter what he will do for the next three, it doesn’t erase the past. And that past has him winning three Super Bowls, which is something only three other guys have done in the history of the sport. You’re right about ’07, and that night will go down as the biggest missed opportunity in NFL history. The 1972 Dolphins might not even have been that great for all I know, but they’re still famously celebrated today, 40-plus years later, for their perfect season. The 2007 Patriots team was going to be that, with two extra wins, with the best quarterback ever, in the best offense ever. They were going to be the best team in the sport’s history, yet because they couldn’t match the Giants’ effort, they became just another Super Bowl loser.

So yeah, Brady’s LEGACY won’t be what it could have been, and maybe should have been. But he’s still right there in the special group of the best quarterbacks of all time. I’m not saying he’s better than Joe Montana, but what often gets lost in his 4-0 record in Super Bowls is his overall postseason record of 16-7. Brady’s record is 18-8.

Fortunately, Ryan Mallett doesn’t look like he’s quite as talented as Steve Young, so Brady should get his chances to write the final chapters of his LEGACY with the Patriots before his WINDOW CLOSES.

Keefe: The Patriots have won 176 games since the start of the 2001 season, including 18 playoff games, but the two times you had trips to the Super Bowl on the line in the last two AFC Championship Games, they lost. The loss on Sunday cost you a trip to New York City.

Here in New York, it’s been hockey season and only hockey season since Nov. 24 when the Giants lost to the Cowboys. It’s hockey season in Boston now too. Maybe I will see you on March 2 at Madison Square Garden for Rangers-Bruins. Between now and then, think about how we should open our book.

Hurley: I have a pretty strong suggestion for the book cover: Friggin’ Jay Alford.

Blogs • NFL

Jan 3, 2014

My Super Bowl XLVIII Dilemma

The New York Football Giants aren’t going to win Super Bowl XLVIII, so it’s time figure out who it makes sense to root for and against this NFL postseason.

Someone will win Super Bowl XLVIII, but it won’t be the Giants.

With the Giants officially on Day 5 of the offseason (I say “officially” because you could make the case that some of them have been in offseason mode for weeks and some never even left it for the regular season) it’s the eve of the NFL playoffs and Wild-Card Weekend. Since the New York Football Giants aren’t going to the playoffs for the fourth time in five years and therefore won’t be going to The Dance at their own home on Feb. 2, I decided to dust off an idea I had for a column three years ago when I ranked the 12 playoff teams in order from which team I would most like to see win Super Bowl XLVIII to which team I don’t want to see win at all. Here it is:

1. Bengals
What is there not to like about the Bengals? Or should I say, what is there to not like about the Bengals? Unless you really hate gingers and therefore Andy Dalton or want to see the Bengals playoff win drought endure another year, there’s no reason to care if the Bengals win it all.

2. Colts
Out of the entire 2012 Quarterback Breakout Class, it’s possible that Andrew Luck has received the least amount of hype and attention for the player who was drafted first overall, had the highest expectations and career projection coming out of college and was being asked to take over a franchise from Peyton Manning. Luck hasn’t disappointed with back-to-back playoff appearances in his first two years, which were supposed to be rebuilding years in Indianapolis and hasn’t done anything in the spotlight to draw negative attention (at least since becoming a Colt since there was that whole private security detail that he employed on campus at Stanford).

A Colts Super Bowl win means a Chuck Pagano Super Bowl win. It also means a Jim Irsay Super Bowl win and what’s better than having a loudmouth owner who called out (and he had a point with what he said) the Peyton Manning Colts for not winning multiple Super Bowls?

3. Broncos
Three years ago I had the Peyton Manning Colts ranked first, but things have changed. I wouldn’t mind if Peyton got his second ring, but coming in the same year in which his brother threw a league-leading 27 interceptions, as a Giants fan it wouldn’t be the best situation.

If Pierre Garcon didn’t drop a pass that would have broken open Super Bowl XLIV or the Colts weren’t taken by surprise by an onside kick or if Peyton Manning himself didn’t throw a devastating pick-six then Peyton would already have his second ring, would be 2-0 in Super Bowls and considered the greatest ever. Instead he’s just the greatest regular-season quarterback ever not the greatest quarterback ever. I wouldn’t mind if that changed this February, I just wish it wouldn’t have to come in a year when Eli wasn’t so awful.

4. 49ers
The 49ers destroyed my 10-to-1 Championship Games parlay last season when they completed a 17-point comeback against the Falcons and won the NFC. I’m still upset about that when it comes to the 49ers, but nothing else.

5. Panthers
I’m still mad at the Panthers for their Super Bowl XXXVIII loss to the Patriots that gave the Patriots their second Super Bowl in three years. And I’m still mad at the Panthers, well mainly just Jake Delhomme, for destroying that divisional round game against the Cardinals in 2008 with five interceptions, costing me the Panthers -10 pick. But it’s 2013 and the Panthers’ Super Bowl loss to the Patriots was a decade ago (and if the Patriots don’t win Super Bowl XLVIII we will enter 2014 with it being a decade since their last championship despite many acting as though they won it as recently as last February) and Jake Delhomme is no longer a Panther or an NFL quarterback. And wouldn’t you be excited to watch the Panthers’ Super Bowl XLVIII DVD with the story about how Ron Rivera went from as close to being fired as you can be to leading the 1-2 Panthers to a championship?

6. Chiefs
If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl then that means the Eagles didn’t win the Super Bowl and it means Andy Reid has won a Super Bowl and the Philadelphia Eagles organization still hasn’t and that means chaos for the city of Philadelphia and Eagles fans. But if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl it means that Alex Smith was the quarterback who led them there and I’m not sure I want anything to do with a sport in which Alex Smith is a winner and possibly Super Bowl MVP.

7. Saints
Jeremy Shockey isn’t there to win another Super Bowl, so the Saints have moved up from their No. 8 spot in 2010. And without Shockey there, aside from Sean Payton wearing a visor, I have nothing against the Saints except for how they screwed me in the final minute against the Patriots and how they screwed me again against the Jets. The only reason I don’t want the Saints to win the Super Bowl is because everything I have come to believe about them and written about them and how they are a different team outside the Superdome will all be meaningless. And that’s because if the Saints win the Super Bowl, they will have won four road games and four outdoor games and that’s a scientific impossibility.

8. Seahawks
In a world where college coaches will do anything and I mean anything to get a better job, Pete Carroll is the poster boy for how to get ahead after he left USC with a two-year bowl ban and the elimination of 30 football scholarships for another shot at the NFL. Back in 2010, I didn’t care if the Seahawks won the Super Bowl (despite those things) and had them ranked third, but they aren’t entering the playoffs as a 7-9 division winner looking to make a mockery of the NFL’s postseason format, so that’s why they have fallen.

9. Packers
Here’s what I wrote about the Packers in my Week 15 Picks:

Since Aaron Rodgers has become the Packers starting quarterback, here’s how their seasons have finished:

2008: Missed playoffs
2009: Lost in Wild-Card round
2010: Won Super Bowl
2011: Lost in divisional round (first game)
2012: Lost in divisional round after beating Joe Webb and the Vikings in the Wild-Card round

So in the last five years with Rodgers as the starter, the Packers have won five playoff games with four of them coming in the same year. And if the “Miracle at the Meadowlands” doesn’t happen, the Packers don’t even make the playoffs in 2010 let alone win the Super Bowl.

I wrote all that because I was trying to show that Aaron Rodgers isn’t worthy of the “Best Player in the League” title he has seemingly been given in a league that boasts maybe the best two quarterbacks in the history of the game and the most dominant running back since Barry Sanders. And after two months without him playing, all it took was one season-saving 48-yard touchdown pass for everyone to push Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Adrian Peterson and others like Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy aside for the Aaron Rodgers Is The Best campaign to return to form.

10. Chargers
In the same season in which Eli Manning threw 27 interceptions and lost to Philip Rivers and the Giants went 7-9 and missed the playoffs, it would be very bad if Rivers and the Chargers then went on to win the Super Bowl. I want the 2013 Giants season to be gone and forgotten and right now that process has started, but if the team Eli Manning said he wouldn’t play for and the quarterback the Giants would have possibly then had win the Super Bowl, Eli Manning and especially 2013 Eli Manning will be at the forefront of Super Bowl storylines for the next month.

11. Patriots
I once wrote how a Red Sox-Mets World Series would be the worst possible championship scenario for me and I’m thankful that I was only a month old when that scenario was created in 1986. My last two teams present the second-worst possible championship scenario for me.

Nothing has changed for me and my feelings for the Patriots over the last three years and because of that, here is what I wrote about them then:

There is no way I want the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. None at all. I would rather walk across the George Washington Bridge naked, during rush hour, while it’s freezing rain than see the Patriots win.

However, a Patriots’ championship would put a serious damper on the possibility of adding more chapters to The Last Night of the Patriots Dynasty book that I plan to write with Mike Hurley.

12. Eagles
This is my nightmare! Well, it’s just one of my nightmares. My real nightmare happened in October and October 2007 and October 2004. My hatred for the Eagles is so strong that last week I found myself rooting for the Cowboys in the winner-take-all Week 17 game and actually felt a little depressed after Kyle Orton ended the game with a Tony Romo-esque interception. That’s what the Eagles can do to me. They can make me not only root for the nearly-equally-hated Cowboys, but also have a Cowboys loss negatively change my mood when I should be happy and celebrating Jerry Jones’ Dallas disaster going another year without a Super Bowl.

If Philadelphia trades Cliff Lee to the Yankees between now and Super Bowl XLVIII I’m willing to at least think about changing their spot. But without The One That Got Away holding a Yankee Stadium press conference between now and Feb. 2, I want to hear anything but “Fly, Eagles Fly.”

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Dec 18, 2013

NFL Week 16 Picks

The Giants’ season has been over for a month, but the picks season still has 43 games to go.

It’s feel like the NFL season has already ended to me and that’s because the Giants haven’t played a meaningful game sine their Week 12 loss to the Cowboys a month ago. Now I’m stuck looking at an under-.500 picks season, there’s no fantasy football left to be played and the amount of games available to wager on will start to dwindle as teams lock up playoff berth and home-field advantage or mail it in for the last two weeks.

With Christmas Eve, Christmas and New Year’s Eve all in the next 13 days, football takes a backseat to the holiday season. But once New Year’s ends, football is back with Wild-Card Weekend and that’s when I lean heavily on football to get through the frigid January weather in the northeast. (Thankfully this year we have the Winter Olympics and therefore Olympic hockey to get through the February weather.)

But before I can even start to think about playoff football, I have to finish strong here in the last two weeks of the regular season with my picks. I’m currently 101-113-9 and 43 games left in the season, including playoffs, I have to finish at least 28-15 to finish over .500 for the season. It’s not going to be easy, but I have a 10-5-1 Week 15 to build off of.

Miami -3 over BUFFALO
It’s Week 16 and there is a lot on the line. Out of the 16 games, 13 of them have playoff implications with five divisions and eight playoffs spots still available. One of those games is this one because if the Dolphins beat the Bills and the Patriots lose to the Ravens, the Dolphins will be one game back of the Patriots with one to play. Sure, the Patriots play the Bills next week and will win that game and the Dolphins really don’t have a chance to win the AFC East (this is half the truth and half a reverse jinx attempt), but let me at least believe for a week, Football Gods?

CAROLINA -3.5 over New Orleans
The Saints have put themselves in a bad spot. If the NFC playoffs were to go through New Orleans, the Saints would easily be the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl. But because of the Saints’ 3-4 road record (they are 7-0 at home) with brutal losses to the Patriots, Jets and Rams, the Saints are now playing for the NFC South title in Carolina. If this game were at the Superdome, I would be all about the Saints like always. But on the road, I’m going against them … like always.

Dallas -3 over WASHINGTON
Come on, this one is easy. There’s no doubt in my mind that the Cowboys will go to D.C. and walk all over the Redskins to make the Week 17 Cowboys-Eagles game in Dallas the NFC East Championship Game. Every year the Cowboys find themselves playing in a win-or-go-home situation in Week 17 and this year will be no different.

ST. LOUIS -4.5 over Tampa Bay
Did you know the Rams have more wins (6) than the Giants (5)? Sure, two of those wins came against Jacksonville and Houston, but the Rams did beat Arizona (9-5), Indianapolis (9-5), Chicago (8-6) and New Orleans (10-4). No, the Rams wouldn’t have been a playoff team if Sam Bradford didn’t get hurt considering they play in the same division as Seattle and San Francisco, but they are at least on the right track for the future, which is more than you can say about the New York Football Giants.

Cleveland +2 over NEW YORK JETS
You know who else has more wins the Giants? The Jets, that’s who. The Jets, who went weeks without throwing for a touchdown have more wins than a team just 23 months removed from winning the Super Bowl and a little over a year removed from looking like they could win the NFC East and possibly even have a first-round bye. No, things haven’t flipped in the New York football landscape (a terrible landscape to be a part of) and the Giants are still king, but it’s never a good look to finish a season worse than the Jets. Let’s go Browns!

KANSAS CITY -7 over Indianapolis
Here are the points against the Chiefs in their first nine games, which were all wins: 2, 16, 16, 7, 17, 7, 16, 17, 13. And here are the points aginst the Chiegs in their last five games: 27, 41, 35, 10, 31. I’m not sure what has happened to the Chiefs’ defense since their first loss of the season back in Week 11, but when the Raiders are putting up 31 on you at home it’s never good. Knowing that, I would normally shy away from the picking for the Chiefs to cover a touchdown at home, but this is the Colts we’re talking about and no playoff team has the ability to get run out of a building on the road like the Colts.

Minnesota +8 over CINCINNATI
I originally had the Bengals to cover here, but I thought more about it and the Vikings have covered for me so many times this year that I can’t turn my back on them now. (And my girlfriend, a Vikings fan, would probably give me a glare and not talk to me for at least 20 minutes upon finding out I picked against her Vikings.)

Denver -10.5 over HOUSTON
The same week in which reports come out that the Texans passed on Peyton Manning, Peyton returns to Reliant Stadium where he tormented the Texans for years. The last thing you want to do is pick against Peyton in a dome with the single-season touchdown record and the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed on the line. Maybe he will choke in January and the Broncos will lose in the divisional round, but when it comes to the regular season, Peyton Manning knows how to get the job done.

Tennessee -4.5 over JACKSONVILLE
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans or Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

SEATTLE -11 over Arizona
Carson Palmer in Seattle. Carson Palmer in Seattle. Carson Palmer in Seattle.

DETROIT -9.5 over New York Giants
I’m not sure what line would make me feel uncomfortable picking against the Giants right now, but 9.5 in Detroit certainly isn’t it. Maybe if this line were -13.5 or higher I would start to think twice about it, but even then, this Giants team has already started thinking about the Monday after Week 17 and a desperate Lions team at home only makes matters worse.

Oakland +10 over SAN DIEGO
I am always big on the Raiders covering against the Chargers and usually the line is a lot lower than 10. The Chargers have proven to be a December disaster in recent years and now that they have played themselves into an unlikely-but-still-possible position for the playoffs, I’m thinking the Raiders’ money line isn’t a bad decision here either.

GREEN BAY -2 over Pittsburgh
I have a feeling we are going to be looking at the NFC North being decided in Chicago next week between the Bears and Packers. You just know the Packers are going to win and then Aaron Rodgers will be back in Week 17 to face the Bears. That’s just how things happen. It’s what the Football Gods want.

BALTIMORE -2 over New England
It’s very weird to not see the “x” next to New England in the standings entering Week 16 to represent the Patriots’ clinched playoff berth. It’s even weirder not to see the “y” next to the “x” showing that the Patriots have also clinched the AFC East with two weeks left. The Patriots aren’t used to playing meaningful late-December games and now they will have to try and clinch the division on the road against the defending champions, who seem to pull off a different miracle each week.

Chicago +3 over PHILADELPHIA
Unfortunately, next week in Dallas, either the Cowboys or Eagles have to win. And one of those teams has to win the NFC East and make the playoffs. But that’s next week. This week it’s still easy to decide who to root against when it comes to an Eagles game.

SAN FRANCISCO -13 over Atlanta
This game would have been in every 10-point teaser this weekend if it weren’t Monday Night Football. But I can’t imagine a lot of people will want to create a 10-point teaser over two days and instead will end up taking the 49ers -13 by themselves on Monday night. That means this line isn’t going to stay at -13 for long and I am thankful it was there when I wrote this.

Last week: 10-5-1
Season: 101-113-9

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Dec 12, 2013

NFL Week 15 Picks

It’s ball-busting time in the NFL and the Giants are part of that group now that they have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

It’s crunch time. Not just for me and my quest for .500 (I’m 91-108-8 and 17 under .500), but in the NFL where every division is (technically) still up grabs as are the second wild card in the AFC, seedings and home-field advantage. I don’t have an NFL season anymore because the Giants didn’t care to beat the Cowboys in Week 12 and now if I care to watch the Giants, which I don’t, it will only to be in hopes that they can spoil other team’s seasons.

When I referred to the Giants as “spoilers” after their recent mathematical elimination, my girlfriend referred to her Vikings as “ball busters,” which is her way of saying “spoilers,” which I decided to adopt over the traditional “spoilers” term. The problem is the Giants aren’t a true “spoiler” or “ball buster” because they aren’t used to playing for nothing in Week 15. And when you’re used to playing for something, it’s hard to get up when you’re playing for nothing. To be a true “ball buster” you have to be used to being a “ball buster” and using the last month of the season as your own Super Bowl since the possibility of playing in the actual Super Bowl is no longer a possibility.

With so much still on the line for teams that have a chance of playing in January, there are plenty of games featuring “ball busters” this week. So if you’re like me and the next meaningful NFL game for you without monetary meaning isn’t until Week 1 in 2014 then welcome to the Ball-Busting Party. There is plenty of room for all of you.

DENVER -10.5 over San Diego
I’m now 11-4-1 with Thursday picks. That means I’m 80-104-7 when it comes to picking games on Sunday and Monday.

If the Chargers hadn’t blown out the Giants last week then this line would be at least 13.5. But because the Giants have nothing to play for and Tom Coughlin couldn’t motivate a team with playoff aspirations and therefore can’t motivate one without them and because Eli Manning and the offense couldn’t care about at least finishing the year with respectable stats, the Chargers beat the Giants 37-14. So while it’s disappointing that the Giants will be going a second straight year without playoff football, at least you gave us this gift of the Broncos only giving 10.5 points to the Chargers.

Washington +7 over ATLANTA
The Redskins are in full-on crisis mode and it’s great. Their owner is being pressured to change the team’s name, their head coach is playing a game of chicken for his job with the owner, the franchise quarterback won’t hold himself accountable for a 3-10 season and the head coach has a broken relationship with the franchise quarterback and is about to start the backup quarterback for the final three games of the year. I’m no Mike Shanahan fan, but the best part of all of this is if the Redskins finish the season strong with Kirk Cousins as their quarterback, it will create the ultimate quarterback controversy entering the same year in which the Rams have the Redskins’ first-round pick because of the trade for Robert Griffin III. Let’s go Redskins!

San Francisco -6 over TAMPA BAY
I still don’t believe in the Buccaneers, mainly because I don’t want to.

Seattle -7 over NEW YORK GIANTS
I wish this game were in Seattle because then we could see just how bad things are for the New York Football Giants. If the Saints can go to Seattle and only score once and lose 34-7, what would happen to the Nothing To Play For Giants in Seattle?

Unfortunately, this game is at MetLife Stadium and those Giants fans who are crazy enough to sit in the snow and rain expected on Sunday to watch a 5-8 team play the NFC’s eventual Super Bowl representation will only get to see half of the blowout this game would have been in the Pacific Northwest.

Chicago -1 over CLEVELAND
A “There Are Three Games Left In The Season And We Can Still Make The Playoffs” quarterback controversy in Chicago! I love it!

Player A: 1,908 yards, 13 TDs, 8 INTs

Player B: 1,809 yards, 13 TDs, 1 INT

Player A is the Bears starting quarterback. Player B is the Bears backup quarterback.

Right now the Bears have the same record (7-6) as the NFC North-leading Lions, but lost to the in Week 4 (40-32) and Week 10 (21-19), so they lose out on the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Bears’ final three games are at Cleveland, at Philadelphia and home against Green Bay. The Lions’ final three last are home against Baltimore, home against the Giants and at Minnesota. The Lions clearly have the favorable schedule, but they’re the Lions and you can bet on them losing at least one of the three and possibly more, leaving the door open for the Bears.

The Bears are optimistic that Cutler will play this week against the Browns, but Cutler last played on Nov. 10 in that Week 10 loss to the Lions and before that, he hadn’t played since Oct. 20 in the Week 7 loss to the Redskins. This Sunday will be Dec. 15 and Cutler will have just 40 pass attempts in the last eight calendar weeks. If it’s up to me, I’m starting McCown in Cleveland. But either way, I’m picking the Bears.

INDIANAPOLIS -6 over Houston
It’s the weirdest team in the NFL against the most underachieving team in the NFL! The Colts haven’t won back-to-back games since their three-game winning streak from Week 2 to Week 4, yet they still clinched the NFC South last week despite going 4-4 over their last eight games. Earlier in the year it seemed like a given that the NFC East was the worst division, but the division has a combined record of 23-29 right now. The NFC South? Their combined record is 19-33. The NFC East might be the most underachieving division, but they’re no longer the worst.

JACKSONVILLE +1 over Buffalo
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars or a Bills fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

MIAMI +2.5 over New England
I asked Mike Hurley what the Patriots are against the spread, so I wouldn’t have to go through and look and count the numbers myself since it seems like they cover, or at least don’t cover double-digit spreads. But he didn’t know. He guessed they are .500 against the spread. So because he “guessed” and I care deeply about giving my readers accurate information, I went back and looked. They are 6-7 against the spread, so Hurley was basically right since they can’t be .500 with 13 games played. I just wanted to be right when I said the following last week:

No team fails to cover spreads like the Patriots, but for some reason, every week they are favored by two possessions and every week I talk myself into taking them. I guess I do it because someday they will cover a spread like this 10.5-point one and I don’t want to miss out when they do.

I thought that most Patriots fans would have given up the idea of the Patriots reaching the Super Bowl without Rob Gronkowski, but there are still some believers out there given how awful the AFC is. Right now the Patriots are looking at playing at home in the divisional round against either the Bengals, Ravens, Chiefs or Colts. If they were to win that game, which they will (kind of a reverse jinx and kind of not) then they would play in Denver for a trip to the Super Bowl. So once again the Patriots are looking at playing one challenging playoff game to reach the Super Bowl.

MINNESOTA +6 over Philadelphia
Nick Foles, Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles are going to win the NFC East, but I’m going to pick against them all the way to their division title.

CAROLINA -11.5 over New York Jets
You could add 10 points to this line and I would still take it. The Panthers have lost one home game this season, which was their first game of the season against Seattle. Since then they are 5-0 at home and have won by 38, 15, 24, 4 and 21 points.

This past Sunday against the Raiders, the Jets threw a touchdown pass and it was made into a big deal after relying heavily on their running game the entire season. The problem is they will be going against the best run defense in the league this week and one that has only allowed 79.4 rushing yards per game.

Over/under 3.5 points for the Jets in Carolina?

Kansas City -5.5 over OAKLAND
Am I missing something here? Is there supposed to be a “1” before the first “5” in this line? Because while that would be a little ridiculous, it would make more sense than the Chiefs giving 5.5 to a team that just let the Jets put up 37 on them, considering the Jets scored just 46 totals points over their previous four games.

Arizona -3 over TENNESSEE
The Cardinals are 8-5 and aren’t a playoff team right now because Seattle is going to win the NFC West (they have a three-game lead over Arizona) and Carolina (9-4) has a hold on one wild-card berth and San Francisco (9-4) has a hold on the other. Fortunately for the Cardinals, they host San Francisco in Week 17, but unfortunately for the Cardinals, they have to play in Seattle in Week 16. The Cardinals are going to fall just short of the playoffs, but a season with at least eight wins with Carson Palmer as the starting quarterback should be applauded.

ST. LOUIS RAMS +6 over New Orleans
Inside the Superdome, the Saints are the best team in the NFL. Outside the Superdome, the Saints are one of the 10 worst teams in the league and maybe even worse than that. After embarrassing the Panthers in New Orleans, the Saints’ undefeated home streak with Sean Payton as coach is now at 16 games. But this season, once again, outside the Superdome the Saints can’t be trusted. And yes, they are playing in a dome, but they played in a dome in Atlanta in Week 12 and barely got out of there with a win.

Green Bay +7 over DALLAS
So it looks like Aaron Rodgers won’t be playing again this week and might not again this season as the 6-6-1 Packers watch their season slip away. Since Rodgers has become the Packers starting quarterback, here’s how their seasons have finished:

2008: Missed playoffs
2009: Lost in Wild-Card round
2010: Won Super Bowl
2011: Lost in divisional round (first game)
2012: Lost in divisional round after beating Joe Webb and the Vikings in the Wild-Card round

So in the last five years with Rodgers as the starter, the Packers have won five playoff games with four of them coming in the same year. And if the “Miracle at the Meadowlands” doesn’t happen, the Packers don’t even make the playoffs in 2010 let alone win the Super Bowl. Maybe the “Best Player in the League” title is a little inaccurate?

Cincinnati -3 over PITTSBURGH
Like the Giants, the Steelers have nothing to play for.

DETROIT -6 over Baltimore
We are still a few weeks away from my column breaking down which team I want to win the Super Bowl with the Giants unable to. The Lions are in that mix.

Last week: 9-7-0
Season: 91-108-8

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Dec 5, 2013

NFL Week 14 Picks

The quest for .500 continues with four weeks left in the regular season.

Last week I went into the 4:00 games with a 7-2-1 record between the Thanksgiving games and the Sunday 1:00 games. I ended up finishing the week at 8-7-1. That pretty much sums up this picks season.

Week 14! Let’s go!

(Home teams in caps)

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Houston
After a 2-1 Thanksgiving Day, the Thursday picks are 10-4. This is the one game I feel confident picking.

Kansas City -3.5 over WASHINGTON
Once upon a time, the Chiefs were 9-0. Now they’re 9-3. With three consecutive losses to the Denver (27-17), San Diego (41-38) and Denver (35-28) again, the Chiefs have given up almost more points in the last three weeks (103) than they had in their first nine games (111). But now the Chiefs go to Washington where the Redskins are marred by a 3-9 record and a season of turmoil that will likely lead to the departure of Mike Shanahan at the end of the season and will lead to a long offseason of “Robert Griffin III or Kirk Cousins” debates. I can’t wait.

Minnesota +7 over BALTIMORE
I’m picking the Vikings here because they have done a good job for me this season and I want to repay them for their efforts. But really I’m picking them because I want the Ravens’ offense to get off a lackluster start so that John Harbaugh brings out the Wildcat and then Joe Flacco calls out Harbaugh again in his postgame press conference. These are the things you look forward to in Week 14 when your team is 5-7 and the playoffs aren’t a real possibility.

NEW ENGLAND -10.5 over Cleveland
No team fails to cover spreads like the Patriots, but for some reason, every week they are favored by two possessions and every week I talk myself into taking them. I guess I do it because someday they will cover a spread like this 10.5-point one and I don’t want to miss out when they do.

Oakland +3 over NEW YORK JETS
Geno Smith has thrown eight touchdowns and 19 interceptions this season. His last touchdown pass came on Oct. 20 in Week 7. It’s now Dec. 5 and Week 14. Here is what Smith has done since Week 7.

Week 8 at Cincinnati: 20-for-30, 159 yards, 0 TD, 2 INTs

Week 9 vs. New Orleans: 8-for-19, 115 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Week 11 at Buffalo: 8-for-23, 103 yards, 0 TD, 3 INTs

Week 12 at Baltimore: 9-for-22, 127 yards, 0 TD, 2 INTs

Week 13 vs. Miami: 4-for-10, 29 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

He has thrown eight touchdowns and 19 interceptions this season. His last touchdown pass came on Oct. 20 in Week 7. It’s now Dec. 5 and Week 14.

Indianapolis +7 over Cincinnati
Yes, I know the Bengals are undefeated at home and the Colts are the weirdest team in the NFL, but seven points with two 8-4 teams?

Detroit +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Yes, the Giants are done when it comes to the playoff picture. But there is that little, tiny, miniscule, minute chance that they could get in. The only way that’s possible is if the Eagles and Cowboys collapse. And given the history of both teams, it’s very possible. The one problem is that the best record the Giants can be is 9-7. The Eagles and Cowboys are both 7-5, but play each other in Week 17, so one of the two teams will win at least one more game this season. So let’s say the Cowboys win that Week 17 game, that means at worst they would finish the season 8-8. And let’s say the Eagles finish the season 1-3 and end up 8-8 also. That’s what it would take for the Giants to make the playoffs.

Miami +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I just don’t want the Steelers to do well, OK?

TAMPA BAY -3 over Buffalo
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Bills fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

GREEN BAY -4 over Atlanta
Yes, I’m still upset about the parlay from last year.

DENVER -13.5 over Tennessee
The Broncos are 6-0 at home this season and have won by margins of 22, 16, 32, 16, 24 and 10 points. That’s good enough for me.

ARIZONA -6.5 over St. Louis
The Cardinals couldn’t help the Giants out last week by pulling off the late-game comeback against the Eagles and usually that would make me pick against the team I needed. But in this case, I’m staying with the Cardinals since if I pick against them, they will cover. Yes, that’s what this picks season has come to.

New York Giants +4 over SAN DIEGO
The over/under on stories from the FOX broadcast team about the 2004 Draft and Eli Manning and Philip Rivers during this game is set at 12.5 and I have the over. Even if the Giants’ season is over, I don’t want Eli to lose to Rivers, or get outplayed.

SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 over Seattle
Why wait until Feb. 4 to have the Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl? Why not just have it right now while temperatures are still somewhat manageable since that’s what the Super Bowl matchup is going to be? The same way the Broncos and Falcons met in Super Bowl XLVII. The same way the Patriots and Packers met in Super Bowl XLVI. And the same way the Patriots and Falcons met in Super Bowl XLV. Sure there are years like 2009 when the Colts and Saints (both 1-seeds) did end up playing in the Super Bowl, but more times than not the 1-seeds don’t meet.

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over Carolina
Do I need to post it again from old picks? OK, I will …

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 15 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7, 17, 18, 32 and 3.

CHICAGO +1 over Dallas
What I said about the Eagles.

Last week: 8-7-1
Season: 83-101-8