The Giants have done exactly what I thought they would do. They have turned a lost 0-2 season into a reel-Giants-fans-back-in 2-2 season. But after playing two easy opponents (though no opponent for the Giants is easy), they now have the Vikings on Sunday followed by the Patriots on Thursday. Winning one of the two next games would be a major accomplishment and would continue to keep this season alive. Losing both would send the season right back to where it was before the Daniel Jones era began.

I haven’t bought into this Giants team as one that has turned their season around and is going to truly battle for a postseason berth. It’s hard to when their defense got worked over for the first three weeks of the seasons, and one of their two wins was a direct result of a kicker missing two extra points and a game-winning, 34-yard field-goal attempt. The only game the Giants looked convincingly better than their opponent was against the Redskins last week, and the Redskins are winless and were forced to play their rookie quarterback who had yet to play because the head coached deemed him not ready.

After the Vikings and Patriots, the Giants also have to play the Cowboys, Eagles twice, Bears and Packers. Since no opponent is “easy” when it comes to the Giants, let’s assume the following opponents aren’t “easy” but rather “easier” than the others: Cardinals, Lions, Jets, Dolphins and Redskins. (I included the 2-1-1 Lions who are extremely close to being 4-0 with the “easier” group because they don’t belong with the first list of teams.) That gives the Giants seven challenging games and five “easier” games to play.

It’s quite possible the Giants could fight for a seven- or eight-win season, which would be a successful season considering how the last two seasons went, most of the games will have been started by a rookie quarterback, the absence of Saquon Barkley for multiple weeks, the state of the defense and that Pat Shurmur is their head coach. I would sign up for 7-9 or 8-8 right now because that would mean the team is actually making progress rather than deteriorating and continuing to go in the wrong direction. It would also mean I cover my over six wins prediction for the Giants.

The next two weeks will tell us a lot about what to expect from the Giants for the next three months. Two losses and they haven’t changed. One win and there’s reason to be intrigued. Two wins and … if the Giants beat both the Vikings and Patriots to improve to 4-2 on the season and 4-0 with Daniel Jones, I book a hotel room in Miami for the Super Bowl. But let’s start with them winning one of the two games and go from there.

***

Well, it’s going to be tough to climb out of this hole. After a nice, solid 9-7 Week 3, Week 4 was an absolute disaster at 5-10. I’m sure I wasn’t the only one losing teasers involving the Colts, Rams, Texans or Vikings, and I’m sure a lot of survivor pool dreams were crushed by the Rams’ lack of defense against a Buccaneers which lost to the Giants. Underdogs went 10-5 against the spread with eight of them winning outright.

Week 4 was certainly forgettable, but thankfully, there’s another week ahead to get back to winning, and 13 more weeks to erase this under-.500 record.

(Home team in caps)

Los Angeles +1 over SEATTLE
I never like taking the road team on Thursday Night Football and I don’t usually like taking any team at Seattle, but there are exceptions to everything. The exception here is that the Rams suffered an embarrassing loss at home to a Buccaneers team which had to fly across country reeling from a loss to the Giants. The Rams will be looking for redemption on the short week.

CINCINNATI -3 over Arizona
After the hard-to-watch Monday Night matchup, which was so hard to watch, I watched it for less than five minutes, we get another winless matchup early on Sunday.

TENNESSEE -3 over Buffalo
I was high on the Titans coming into the season and their Week 1 blowout win over the Browns validated my being high on them. Then they went out and back-to-back games and I figured they were the same old .500-ish Titans. But they were able to beat the Falcons (not exactly a great accomplishment) last week and now I’m ready to ride them again.

Chicago -6 over OAKLAND
The Colts should be embarrassed for the way they played on Sunday, allowing the Raiders to go down the field on their defense with ease. I can’t envision them having them offensive success this week going against the best defense in the league, even if they are at home. Derek Carr better have his head on a swivel in Khalil Mack’s return to Oakland, where he will want to put on a show for his former fans and for the team who thought it was a good idea to not pay him.

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over Tampa Bay
That’s two starts for Teddy Bridgewater and two wins for the Saints. It’s almost as if the Vikings should have kept Bridgewater, so they wouldn’t now be wasting their championship window on the Kirk Cousins era in which they are 10-10 with nearly $100 million in guaranteed money tied up with a mediocre-at-best quarterback.

NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 over Minnesota
My wife is a Vikings fan. Yes, a Vikings from Los Angeles. Long story. Do I really believe the Giants’ winning streak will reach three games and they will be able to score against the Vikings’ defense like they did against Tampa Bay and Washington or that they will be able to play defense against Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs? No. But I can’t pick against them with so much on the line at home.

PHILADELPHIA -13.5 over New York Jets
Will the Jets’ offense score a touchdown coming out of their bye week? I don’t think so since the Eagles are also essentially coming out of a bye with a 10-day layoff. This has to be the most pick survivor pool game of the week with the Dolphins on their bye.

Baltimore -3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I couldn’t have been more wrong about the Ravens last week and thinking they were in the level just below the Patriots and Chiefs in the AFC. Teams in that level don’t get run out of their own building. But in actuality, that level doesn’t even exist this season. It’s the Patriots and Chiefs and then everyone else is much, much far behind the two. The AFC is essentially the NBA in that we already know how the playoffs will unfold. 

New England -15.5 over WASHINGTON
The Patriots have failed to cover back-to-back weeks after a defensive touchdown gave the Jets a backdoor cover over them in Week 3 and a missed extra point allowed the Bills to cover in Week 4. After watching the Redskins blow a sizable lead to the Eagles in Week 1 and then get routed by a Giants team which shouldn’t rout any team, I think it’s safe to say the Patriots will get back to covering this week.

CAROLINA -3.5 over Jacksonville
Last week, I wrote:

I have never listened to North Carolina sports radio, but if Kyle Allen plays well again, I think I’m going to have to check it out. I want nothing more than for there to be a quarterback controversy with the Panthers. 

I think it’s time to tune into North Carolina sports radio because if there isn’t already talk of a quarterback controversy with the Panthers, there should be. The Panthers are 2-0 with Allen and 0-2 with Cam Newton. I don’t know how Newton expects to be the starter when he eventually returns, and I don’t know how he possibly could be the starter with the way Allen has played. If Allen continues to play well and the Panthers continue to win, there won’t be a debate. Newton will be on the bench.

HOUSTON -5 over Atlanta
If it always feels like the Texans should be better than they are, it’s because they should be. They have the quarterback and offensive and defensive personnel to be a playoff team each year, but somehow they continue to struggle to score points and win games. Scoring 10 points at home is something that should only happen with teams like the Redskins and Dolphins, certainly not with the Texans. That trend can’t continue at home against the Falcons.

Since the Falcons blew a 25-point, second-half lead in the Super Bowl, they have lost in the first round of the playoffs, gone 7-9 and are now 1-3. If that’s not enough to get a head coach fired who should have been fired the second that awful Super Bowl ended, I don’t know what will be enough.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -6.5 over Denver
The Dolphins turned in their best performance of the season in Week 4, a 20-point loss to the Chargers. After seeing how bad the Dolphins were in the first three weeks of the season, it was a letdown performance from the Chargers. It’s somewhat understandable since the Chargers never play well outside of the Pacific Time Zone, or California really, but only beating the Dolphins by 20 is a bit of a red flag. Luckily for the Chargers, they return to California and the Pacific Time Zone this week to face a second straight winless opponent in the Broncos.

Green Bay +3.5 over DALLAS
Here’s what I wrote last week about the Cowboys:

The Cowboys have yet to be tested after getting the awful defenses of the Giants and Redskins in Weeks 1 and 2 and then the Dolphins, who might be the worst team in the history of the NFL, in Week 3. The Cowboys are good, but they’re not undefeated, class-of-the-NFC good. Right now, they’re riding high, and probably thinking they’re the cream of the crop in the NFC, as their fans are, but this week in New Orleans should be a nice wake-up call for them after having the easiest opening schedule through Week 3 in the league.

The Cowboys might be able to pick up easy wins against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, but their schedule is too hard for them to bully their way into the playoffs. At some point they’re going to have to win against the league’s better teams to reach the postseason since nine of their 12 remaining games are against Green Bay, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Detroit, New England, Buffalo, Chicago and Los Angeles Rams. As a Giants fan, I hope they extend Dak Prescott before the losing gets too out of hand for the Cowboys. 

KANSAS CITY -11 over Indianapolis
I know each week in the NFL season is essentially a one-week season and you can’t put a lot of stock into what you see from week to week. But it’s hard for me as someone who watched most of Raiders-Colts last week to not think the Chiefs might be able to tell their punter to stay home on Sunday.

SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 over Cleveland
So far, the Monday Night Football games have been Texans-Saints, Broncos-Raiders, Browns-Jets, Bears-Redskins and Bengals-Steelers. Outside of Texans-Saints, it will be nice to once again have a Monday night game with two teams worth staying up for.

I was completely wrong about the Ravens last week against the Browns, as the Ravens turned out to be the same frauds who were humiliated in the playoffs last year. I wasn’t necessarily wrong about the Browns though, since I still believe they are a seven- or eight-win team. If I’m going to be right about that, they’re going to need to continue to be the .500 team they are, and that means losing to equal or better opponents.

Last week: 5-10
Season: 28-35

I know what’s happening with the Giants because I have lived it many times.

The Giants start 0-2 and then win a couple of games to reel me back in after I gave up on them and the season. Then they lose a couple of games and I feel like an idiot for getting tricked by them. Then they win a couple more games and I fall for their postseason chances once again, all while at the same time injuries in the NFC East and poor play from the rest of the conference has cleared a path for the Giants to potentially reach the playoffs despite being a mediocre-to-bad team.

I have lived that exact season in many Giants season and it’s happening again.

The Giants were blown out in Week 1 and embarrassed in Week 2 before being gifted a win in Week 3. Now they have a home game against a defense as bad as theirs and an offense that is nowhere near theirs, even without Saquon Barkley. There’s a very real chance the Giants could be and should be 2-2 after this week, and with the Eagles at 1-2 facing a tough matchup and the Cowboys going on the road to New Orleans, the Giants could be in second place and one game back in the division on Sunday.

But then the other shoe will drop, the way it always does. The Giants will lose to the Vikings and Patriots in Weeks 5 and 6 to remind everyone who these Giants really are. But then they will bounce back against the Cardinals at MetLife and possibly in Detroit as well, finishing up with the Cowboys and Jets before their bye.

I thought the Giants were going to leave me alone this season. I thought this season was going to be about Daniel Jones gaining valuable experience and the team being bad enough to get defensive help near the top of the 2020 draft. But now it’s definitely going to involve me trying to map out the remaining schedules for all NFC teams with postseason chances and trying to find a path for the Giants to play in January.

I can see this unfolding from a mile away. I want to be strong enough to not fall for it, but the Giants are the most persuasive bad major professional sports team there is.

(Home team in caps)

GREEN BAY -4 over Philadelphia
In order for the Giants to toy with my emotions and waste three-plus hours of 13 of the next 14 Sundays for me, they’re most likely going to need some help. Considering their defense, they’re definitely going to need some help. That means having other NFC East teams and other average NFC teams losing. The Eagles are one of those teams.

I’m sure the Eagles and their fans had Super Bowl aspirations entering this season and probably still do. If not for Alshon Jeffrey tipping that eventual interception up in the air in the divisional round, the Eagles might have returned to the Super Bowl and might have even won it. They were good enough to.

But now the Eagles are 1-2, after coming up short on their final drives against the Falcons and Lions in back-to-back weeks. Six of their next seven games are against Green Bay, Minnesota, Dallas, Buffalo, Chicago and New England. The easiest of those is on the road against the undefeated Bills. Outside of Week 5 against the Jets, it’s a gauntlet. The Eagles’ season isn’t in trouble yet, but it’s headed that way. Because I’m on my way to believing in the Giants again, I’m going to need the Eagles pushed out of the way.

New England -7 over BUFFALO
For last week’s 23-point line in the Patriots-Jets game, I wrote:

This line could be 35 and I still couldn’t take the Jets. I get that it’s ridiculously high and if the Jets were to ever find the end zone even once it might complicate things since their defense is solid, but I don’t think they’re going to find the end zone on offense. Maybe on defense or special teams, but that can’t be counted on.

The Jets’ special teams and defense did both find the end zone to impact the line and cover for the Jets, but I would still give the 23 points every time.

The Bills might have a strong defense and an improved offense, but they’re still the Bills, and they’re still playing the Patriots. I will be rooting for the Bills to win, but I certainly can’t pick them to cover here.

Tennessee +4 over ATLANTA
The Titans have let me down after their impressive Week 1 win in Cleveland. Then again, the Browns are nowhere near as good as people thought they would be because they added Odell Beckham, and the Titans look to be the same 7-9 or 8-8 team they usually are. The Titans can turn their season around with winnable games the next three weeks, starting in Atlanta this week. The Falcons are also trying to save their season, but as always, I will be rooting against them not to.

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cleveland
The Ravens are the real deal. The Browns aren’t. I laughed at those who picked the Browns to go to the AFC Championship and laughed harder at those who picked them go to the Super Bowl. Even picking the Browns to be a playoff team should have warranted some laughs with the way they have looked through three weeks.

If 10 wins gets you a playoff berth, and the Browns have one win, it’s hard to find where they are going to get nine more wins in 13 games. They do have Cincinnati and Pittsburgh twice and Miami once, but that would only get them to six. They would still need three more wins from a schedule which includes Baltimore twice, San Francisco, Seattle, New England, Buffalo and not necessarily easy matchups on the road at Denver and Arizona.

The Browns might have Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb, but everything about them says they’re a seven- or eight-win team.

The Ravens, on the other hand, are a playoff team and the likely NFC North champion. For now, they don’t appear to be a real threat to the Patriots or Chiefs for the AFC, but they’re levels above the Browns.

Kansas City -6.5 over DETROIT
Nothing sums up the chaotic nature of football more than the Lions’ first three games.

In Week 1, they blew an 18-point fourth-quarter lead to a rookie head coach/quarterback combination and eventually tied. In Week 2, they won a defensive matchup against the much-better-on-paper Chargers. In Week 3, they went to Philadelphia and held off the Eagles for a three-point win thanks to a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown and a pair of recovered fumbles.

Anyone who has watched the Lions this season would find it absurd that anyone would ever wager money on football. But to that I say, the unlikely outcomes and unpredictable results like the three Lions games have had is exactly why gambling on football is so fun.

When it comes to picking Kansas City games, if I’m going to go against them, I’m going to need at least a touchdown, and most likely more. 

HOUSTON -4.5 over Carolina
Panthers fans have to feel more confident with Kyle Allen as their starting quarterback than with Cam Newton, right? In his second career start, and really first actual start since the Week 17 game against New Orleans last season was a formality game for both in advance of the postseason, he was outstanding. Allen threw four touchdown passes and looked like something Newton hasn’t in a long time.

Newton won’t play again this week and Allen will start. I have never listened to North Carolina sports radio, but if Allen plays well again, I think I’m going to have to check it out. I want nothing more than for there to be a quarterback controversy with the Panthers. 

INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 over Oakland
I like this Colts team. They have a solid defense and possibly the best offensive line in the league, and when you have that combination, wins will follow, no matter if your quarterback is Andrew Luck or Jacoby Brissett. The Colts have followed up their season-opening overtime loss at the Chargers with impressive wins at Tennessee and over Atlanta. The Colts were a playoff team with Luck last season and I think they are again without him this season. The Raiders shouldn’t be getting anything less than a touchdown against playoff teams.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -15.5 over Miami
Normally, I don’t take the Chargers when they have to leave California and the Pacific Time Zone, but exceptions have to be made when it comes to games involving the 2019 Dolphins.

I don’t trust the Chargers to cover in this game and it wouldn’t surprise me if this ends up as an unbelievable upset. But there’s just no way I can take the Dolphins, who have scored 16 points total in three games to cover any sort of spread, especially when they are losing on average by 39 points.

NEW YORK GIANTS -2.5 over Washington
I know what’s happening here because I have lived it many times. The Giants start 0-2 and then win a couple of games to reel back in all of their fans who gave up on them and the season. Then they lose a couple more games and those fans who were reeled back in feel like idiots. Then they win a couple more games and those idiots are once again tricked into believing because injuries in the NFC East and poor play from the rest of the conference has cleared a path for the Giants to potentially reach the postseason despite being a mediocre-to-bad team. It’s happening again.

The Giants were blown out in Week 1 and embarrassed in Week 2 before being gifted a win in Week 3. Now they have a home game against a defense as bad as theirs and an offense that is nowhere near theirs, even without Saquon Barkley. There’s a very real chance the Giants could be and should be 2-2 after Sunday. And with the Eagles at 1-2 facing a tough matchup and the Cowboys going on the road to New Orleans, the Giants could be in second place and one game back in the division.

But then the other shoe will drop, the way it always does. The Giants will lose to the Vikings and Patriots the next two weeks to remind everyone who these Giants really are. But then they will bounce back against the Cardinals at MetLife and possibly in Detroit as well, finishing up with the Cowboys and Jets before their bye.

I can see this unfolding from a mile away. I want to be strong enough to not fall for it, but the Giants are the most persuasive bad major professional sports team there is.

ARIZONA +5 over Seattle
The Seahawks beat the now-winless Bengals by one point at home then beat the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers by two points on the road and then lost to the Drew Brees-less Saints. The Seahawks aren’t any good, but that’s what happens when most of your salary cap is tied up to your quarterback. Everyone needs to stop thinking of the Seahawks as the defense-led team which won the Super Bowl, and start thinking of them as a team that’s been average since they built their roster around Russell Wilson.

LOS ANGELES RAMS -9.5 over Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers lost to the Giants. When you lose to the Giants, you should be getting no less than double-digit points the following week, especially when you have to fly across the country to play the defending NFC champions.

Minnesota +2 over CHICAGO
This game should be played the exact same by each team: run-first offense combined with great defense. The Vikings and the Bears are similarly built and both led by untrustworthy quarterbacks. The Vikings have more playmakers on offense, while the Bears have more on defense. It’s about as even of a matchup as you could ask for.

The Vikings giving up the usual third point as a road team in a divisional matchup says a lot, and as long as Kirk Cousins doesn’t run the game, the Vikings should win. But thinking Cousins won’t ruin a game is like thinking Mitch Trubisky won’t ruin a game. I will probably regret this pick the first time Cousins drops back against the Bears’ pass rush.

Jacksonville +3 over DENVER
Gardner Minshew got his first career win and the Jaguars got their first win of the season, and now they both have a 10-day layoff to get Minshew more acclimated as the starting quarterback. With Nick Foles, I have to think the Jaguars’ Week 1 loss to Kansas City is much closer and that they score more than 12 points and probably win in Week 2 against Houston. But at 1-2, their season is still alive, and with their defense, they will have a chance each week, even without Foles. It’s never easy going on the road to Denver, but it’s a little easier going against this year’s underwhelming Broncos’ offense.

NEW ORLEANS +2.5 over Dallas
After waxing poetic about Teddy Bridgewater in last week’s picks, he went out and led the Saints to a win on the road in Seattle, where it used to be impossible for road teams to win. Bridgewater threw two touchdown passes and didn’t turn the ball over, playing the exact way he did when he led the Vikings to the playoffs in 2015.

The Cowboys have yet to be tested after getting the awful defenses of the Giants and Redskins in Weeks 1 and 2 and then the Dolphins, who might be the worst team in the history of the NFL, in Week 3. The Cowboys are good, but they’re not undefeated, class-of-the-NFC good. Right now, they’re riding high, and probably thinking they’re the cream of the crop in the NFC, as their fans are, but this week in New Orleans should be a nice wake-up call for them after having the easiest opening schedule through Week 3 in the league.

Cincinnati +4 over PITTSBURGH
Nothing says Monday Night Football like two 0-3 teams battling to be the less embarrassing franchise.

Last week: 9-7
Season: 23-25

I originally planned on going to Tampa this coming weekend to see the Giants play the Buccaneers on Sunday and then see the Yankees play the Rays during the week. But between the Giants being the worst team in the NFC and the Yankees preparing to use spring training lineups for the final two weeks of the season, it didn’t make sense to go all the way to Florida to watch my teams play meaningless games.

Then Wednesday happened and Pat Shurmur announced Daniel Jones as this week’s starting quarterback, effectively ending Eli Manning’s career. I don’t think Manning is going to be traded, and I don’t know that he would want to be, and he’s certainly not coming back next season, so Sunday’s loss was probably the last time we ever see Manning play for the Giants, barring an injury to Jones or meaningless garbage-time minutes between now and Week 17. Had I kept my trip to Tampa, I would have gotten to see the start of the Jones era and the first time a quarterback other than Manning had a future with the team in nearly 15 years.

Unfortunately, this is the right move for the Giants. They aren’t competitive and aren’t going to reach the postseason this year. I don’t know when any Giants fan can expect them to reach the postseason again. This season now has to be about the future, which it was always going to be about, no matter how much BS ownership, Dave Gettleman or Pat Shurmur spewed to the media in the offseason. It’s why the Giants should have either moved on from Manning before the draft, or committed to Manning, and used all of their draft picks to help the team win now. Instead, they tried to do a little bit of both and it’s led to an offense without any healthy and capable wide receivers, and a defense lacking a pass, secondary and the basic fundamentals of trying to prevent the other team from scoring.

The moment the Giants drafted Jones, Gettleman and Shurmur’s employment timer with the Giants began, and now that he’s actually going to play and has a potential 14 games to showcase his abilities in, that employment timer is going to pick up its pace. The general manager and head coach are tied to the success or failure of Jones, as is the entire organization, and if he proves to be an NFL quarterback over the next 15 weeks, they will keep their jobs. If he doesn’t, another duo, hopefully a better duo, will get to pick the future of the team at the 2020 draft.

It’s going to take the rest of the season to properly evaluate Jones as a potential franchise quarterback and determine whether or not the current front office made the right decision or if they wasted the sixth overall pick and an entire season, and unnecessarily ended the career of the best quarterback in franchise history. The Giants’ future begins on Sunday in Tampa. At least there’s a reason to watch for the rest of the season.

***

Back-to-back 7-9 weeks to start the season isn’t great from a record standpoint, but is good enough to have survived the first weeks of the season and all of the quarterback injuries to stay afloat. Week 3 is a chance to get above .500 and stay above .500.

(Home team in caps)

JACKSONVILLE +2 over Tennessee
It’s hard to put a lot of faith into Gardner Minishew, but the replacement for Nick Foles has been better than expected after taking over early in Week 1 and playing a full game in Week 2. It hasn’t translated into wins, as the Jaguars are 0-2, but at least the Jaguars have a serviceable option at quarterback and can at least expect to be competitive, unlike say, the Jets.

I expected big things out of the Titans this season, and after their Week 1 win over the Browns, I felt great about them. But then they laid an egg in their home opener in an expected low-scoring AFC South game, and I saw the usual .500-esque offense from the Titans, led by Marcus Mariota’s blah game.

I had a lot of fun rooting for, picking for and winning money on the Jaguars in their run to the AFC Championship Game a couple years ago, and I thought I was going to have similar fun this season with Foles as their quarterback and one of the league’s best defenses. That idea hasn’t gone according to plan, but there’s still time for it to happen, if the Jaguars can win this week. If not, their season’s over at 0-3.

NEW ENGLAND -23 over New York Jets
I love the college line the Jets are getting this week and the Dolphins got last week and will continue to get.

If Sam Darnold had played on Monday night, the Jets would have won. The Browns were so underwhelming and Baker Mayfield looked so bad that had the Jets had even just a bad quarterback and not two awful options, they might have won. Instead, the Jets watched Trevor Siemian suffer a season-ending injury and then watched Luke Falk run a game plan in which nearly every pass was thrown behind the line of scrimmage en route to their loss.

This line could be 35 and I still couldn’t take the Jets. I get that it’s ridiculously high and if the Jets were to ever find the end zone even once it might complicate things since their defense is solid, but I don’t think they’re going to find the end zone on offense. Maybe on defense or special teams, but that can’t be counted on.

Cincinnati +6 over BUFFALO
What a gift the Bills received from the NFL getting scheduled to open the season against two bad teams in the Jets and Giants on the road, in the same state, a short plane ride away to MetLife. The Bills are 2-0 as a result of getting to play against the shaky Jets and defenseless Giants and have already played 25 percent of their road schedule. Now with home games against Cincinnati and Miami within the next month, there’s a good chance the Bills could be at 5-3 or even 4-3 a month from now.

Except these are the Bills we’re talking about. If there’s a possibility to screw something up, they will screw it up. Having a Week 3 home game and their home opener against the Bengals seems like it can be counted as a W, but again, these are the Bills. The Bills were fortunate to play their first two games against teams which will most likely get to draft in the first five picks in 2020.

The Bengals did get blown out at by San Francisco last week, but held their own in Seattle the week before. I don’t think the Bengals are good or are going to necessarily win in Buffalo, but it’s hard to believe the Bills could be giving six points to any team, and it’s even harder to believe they will cover.

DALLAS -21.5 over Miami
When the Dolphins start running plays on their opponent’s side of the field, I will start considering taking them to cover the massive spreads for their games, which are only going to grow in size as the season goes on. I don’t think Josh Rosen is going to get the chance he spoke about at the 2018 draft to make all the teams that passed on him regret passing on him.

GREEN BAY -8 over Denver
This game will be used in teasers more than any other game in Week 3. That normally would be enough to scare me into taking the points, but not after watching Denver play at Oakland in Week 1.

INDIANAPOLIS -1.5 over Atlanta
It’s possible the Jacoby Brissett Colts are just as good as the Andrew Luck Colts. They have played well in the first two weeks of the season and look as good as they did at the end of last year before losing to the Texans in a weird game in the postseason.

I know what the Falcons are and have made my reasons for continuing to pick against them and their head coach clear in previous picks blogs. I’m not about to go against my principles, especially when the Falcons have to go on the road and face a better, more well-rounded team.

KANSAS CITY -6.5 over Baltimore
I need at least a touchdown to fall back on if I’m going to pick against the Chiefs.

MINNESOTA -9 over Oakland
Last week, in reference to their successful Week 1 game plan, in which the Vikings only let Kirk Cousins throw the ball 10 times, I wrote: If the Vikings stick to their plan and don’t allow Cousins to ruin the game, they will be 2-0 and in first place in the NFC North. If they go back to what made them unsuccessful last year, they will be unsuccessful again. Well, Cousins threw the ball 32 times in Week 2, and what do you know, he threw two interceptions, fumbled the ball twice and lost one of the fumbles.

It’s impressive the Vikings only lost by five with the way Cousins played, and had anyone other than Kirk Cousins as their quarterback, they would be 2-0 this season. Had anyone other than Cousins been their quarterback last season, they probably would have won the NFC North and returned to the NFC Championship Game too. But the Vikings are stuck with Cousins, who is bad as it gets at throwing accurate passes and maintaining possession, and it’s hard to envision them going anywhere as long as he’s on the team.

Fortunately for the Vikings, they get the Raiders at home this week in what should be a rout. If it’s not, that should tell you all you need to know about this team’s chances with Cousins, as if there hasn’t been enough to tell you all you need to know since the start of last season.

PHILADELPHIA -6.5 over Detroit
The Eagles are dangerously close to being 0-2, but I guess most teams in the NFL are always dangerously close to having a completely opposite record. I know this because I’m a Giants fan who has watched them lose many games in recent years decided by three points or less and most games by seven points or less. At some point, the Eagles are going to look like a team expected to win the NFC East and compete for a second championship in three years. What better time to look like this team than at home agains the Lions.

ARIZONA 0 over Carolina
I was upset with myself for picking the Panthers on Thursday Night Football in Week 2 the second the Panthers offense took the field. The Panthers have one playmaker in their entire offense in Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers run nearly every single play through him. I have no idea how he’s going to be able to hold up for a lengthy career with the way he’s used in Carolina, but for now, the Panthers have no choice.

Cam Newton has drastically regressed since his 2015 MVP season and the only way the Panthers can be successful is by handing the ball off to McCaffrey or by throwing him a two- or-three-yard pass and hoping he can gain significant yards after the catch. It’s an easy offense and strategy to prepare for, and even the rookie-led Cardinals will be able to handle it.

TAMPA BAY -6.5 over New York Giants
It doesn’t matter that Jameis Winston isn’t good because it doesn’t matter which quarterback plays against the Giants’ defense, they are going to get lit up. That the Giants are going on the road against a Bruce Arians offense in what will be the first start for Daniel Jones makes this a rather easy pick for me. A 16-year veteran could barely function without any NFL-worthy receivers. I’m sure a rookie debut in his NFL debut will do much better.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -3.5 over Houston
The Chargers left the Pacific Time Zone, and unsurprisingly, they lost. A return home this week should return the real Chargers, who can only really be trusted in games played in California.

New Orleans +4 over SEATTLE
Once upon a time, Teddy Bridgewater was the starting quarterback of the Vikings and led them to what should have been a postseason win over the Seahawks, if not for a Blair Walsh 27-yard field-goal attempt.

Since Bridgewater’s career-altering knee injury with the Vikings, the Vikings have traded away a first-round draft pick for Sam Bradford, only to have a 5-0 season end at 8-8, and they have turned to Case Keenum, who led them to within a win of the Super Bowl, only to move on from Keenum to give a guaranteed $84 million to Kirk Cousins, who is at best as good as Keenum.

The Vikings could have kept Bridgewater following his knee injury and eaten the money they would have been forced to pay him while he was injured and it would have been a whole lot less than the money they guaranteed to Cousins. Had Bridgewater not been able to make a comeback from his injury, the team could have stayed with Keenum as quarterback. They would have retained the first-rounder they gave away for Bradford and would have had a lot more salary-cap space available without Cousins. Since Bridgewater did make a comeback, he would be the quarterback, the offensive and defensive lines would have more money invested in them, and the Vikings would be better than they are currently and would have been better than they were last year as well.

I don’t like the Saints, but I love Bridgewater, and I’m rooting for him to make the Vikings’ front office continue to look foolish.

SAN FRANCISCO -6 over Pittsburgh
The Steelers are headed toward a long, loss-filled season. The lines for their games are only going to grow in size as the season progresses. Get in on going against the Steelers before the lines get too high.

Los Angeles Rams -3 over CLEVELAND
I picked against the Browns last week before it was announced the Jets would start Siemian. Unfortunately, the Jets were essentially quarterback-less on Monday night and gave away a winnable game. But my need for the Browns to lose and be losers with Odell Beckham on the team still exists.

Chicago -4 over WASHINGTON
The Bears went into this season with Super Bowl aspirations. After two weeks, they don’t look like a playoff team, forget a championship contender. I don’t know how the Bears or Bears fan can believe in Mitch Trubisky, or how they can think they will ever win it all with him. Maybe Trubisky will greatly improve, and maybe the first weeks of the season will be looked back on as anomaly for this Bears season, but scoring three points at home in Week 1 and needing a time-expiring field goal to the beat the Broncos in Week 2 isn’t exactly promising.

I still believe in the Bears, because of their defense and because of their running game, but Week 3 is about as must-win as it gets with Minnesota (twice), New Orleans, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia, Los Angeles Rams, Dallas, Green Bay and Kansas City on their schedule.

The Bears need a big win at Washington.

Last week: 7-9
Season: 14-18

I usually reserve this space in the weekly picks blog to write about the Giants, but I’m not sure that will continue this season. Like Tony Perkis telling Nicholas in Heavyweights, “I’m a beaten man.”

The Giants have beaten me up since the beginning of the 2017 season, losing 25 of their last 33 games, and there’s nothing left to beat as a Giants fan. They have lost because of their quarterback; they have lost because of their receivers; they have lost because of their offensive line; they have lost because of their defensive line; they have lost because of their secondary; they have lost because of their coaching; they have lost in blow-out fashion; they have lost in the final minute; they have lost as time expires. The Giants have lost in every way imaginable over the last two-plus seasons and it’s hard to take it anymore. They aren’t a team in the middle of a rebuild with a light at the end of the tunnel and a clear timeline for when they will be competitive again. They are a team in the middle of a rebuild with no light at the end of the tunnel and no clear timeline for when they will be competitive again.

Thankfully, I have no expectations for them this season and don’t expect them to make the playoffs or go on a postseason run. My expectations are for them to be one of the worst teams in the league and once again pick near the top of the draft in 2020. Week 1 was enough for me to realize this is going to happen and I don’t know how it will get better or when it will be fun and enjoyable to watch the Giants.

Week 1 is all about survival and not getting buried with the picks record for the season just as the season begins. I survived Week 1. It wasn’t pretty, but coming away with a 7-9 record after some sloppy football and wild finishes is more than acceptable, at least to me. Week 2 has always been the hardest week of the season for me, and I’m sure it will be again this year.

(Home team in caps)

CAROLINA -7 over Tampa Bay
I love Thursday Night Football because it means football. I hate Thursday Night Football because of this blog. But the one thing I have learned over the years is if you’re unsure of who to take, take the home team on Thursday night. It makes it a little easier when the road team is the Buccaneers.

New England -18.5 over Miami
I don’t care about Tom Brady’s odd career record in Miami and I don’t care about all the weird things that have happened to the Patriots down south. This Dolphins team is unlike any other Brady has ever faced since this Dolphins team isn’t even trying to win and isn’t even fielding an NFL-caliber roster.

The Dolphins have one goal this season: lose more games than any other team. Achieving that goal will get them Tua Tagovailoa, and getting him will speed up their rebuilding process. The lines for Dolphins games are only going to go up, s0 feel safe teasing them now because pretty soon the lines are are going to be Alabama vs. New Mexico State-esque.

BALTIMORE -13.5 over Arizona
Kyler Murray’s NFL debut looked like it was going to be a flop when the Cardinals were trailing the Lions 24-6 early in the fourth quarter. But Murray led the Cardinals to a comeback which included a touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald with 43 seconds remaining and a successful two-point conversion to Christian Kirk to send the game to overtime, eventually tying 27-27.

Unfortunately, Murray’s feel-good start to his career and search for his first win will be put on hold in Week 2. This isn’t about the Ravens demolishing the Dolphins like a lopsided August college football matchup, this is about the Ravens being a postseason team with arguably the best defense in the league whether they embarrassed the Dolphins on the road or not. The Cardinals historically have been a disaster in Eastern Time Zone games and that’s only going to be enhanced for a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach flying across the country to face for the Ravens’ home opener.

San Francisco -1.5 over CINCINNATI
This is the type of game where I have no idea which way to lean and wonder who would ever bet on this game and it becomes the easiest pick of the day and the biggest laugher from a score standpoint. One of these teams will probably win in a blowout. I hope I’m picking the right team.

Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 over DETROIT
If anyone watched the Lions blow a late lead to a rookie quarterback/head coach combination like I did on early Sunday night, you too would not pick the Lions to cover. I don’t need any other information other than the fourth quarter of Week 1 to make this pick.

Minnesota +3 over GREEN BAY
It took the Vikings a full season and a disappointing 8-8 record to realize Kirk Cousins isn’t good. I guess better late than never. We know the Vikings have come to terms that they should have kept the much cheaper Case Keenum and not destroyed their salary-cap situation by signing Cousins because of their Week 1 game plan. The Vikings let Cousins only throw the ball 10 times in their win over the Falcons, running the ball 38 times instead of letting their unreliable and untrustworthy quarterback decide the game.

That game plan is likely the one the Packers thought they were going to see in Chicago before the Bears forgot who their quarterback is, so the Packers will be ready for it this week, except the Vikings have much better personnel than the Bears to pull it off. If the Vikings stick to their plan and don’t allow Cousins to ruin the game, they will be 2-0 and in first place in the NFC North. If they go back to what made them unsuccessful last year, they will be unsuccessful again.

HOUSTON -9 over Jacksonville
It’s never good to have a team +10.5 in a five-team, seven-point teaser and have that team’s quarterback break his clavicle on a 75-yard touchdown pass in the first quarter and have that team’s best defensive player get ejected from the game for throwing punches also in the first quarter, especially when that team is playing the best offense in the league. Yes, I had the Jaguars +10.5 in a five-team, seven-point teaser.

The Texans covered for me and should have won if not for playing the old prevent defense, which unsurprisingly gave the Saints a time-expiring win. The Texans surprised me and looked much better than I expected them to and DeAndre Hopkins looked as good as ever despite already being the best wide receiver in the league. Usually, I would have a hard time picking for the Texans, but here I am picking them to cover in back-to-back weeks to open the season.

Buffalo -2 over NEW YORK GIANTS
I have a feeling the first defensive and first offensive drives of the season are the only two times I will be happy with the Giants this season. Actually, I know they will. Because after seeing Sunday’s debacle in Dallas, I know the Giants still suck and didn’t improve at all on either side of the ball. This wasn’t just one game and it’s not early and only Week 1. This is a continuation of the 2018 season which was a continuation of the 2017 season.

So why would I ever pick the Giants to win their home opener against the Bills, who were also in MetLife on Sunday to overcome a 16-point second-half deficit to the beat the Jets, who at least on paper are must better than the Giants? I don’t care that the Bills will always be the Bills and I don’t care that the Jets will always be the Jets. The Giants are still the Giants of the last two-plus seasons and that’s much worse than the Bills.

Seattle +4.5 over PITTSBURGH
The Seahawks almost lost to the Bengals at home and almost knocked me out of my survivor pool on the first Sunday of the season. The Steelers were flat-out embarrassed, and Mike Tomlin rightfully ripped his team, and himself, after the ugly loss. I always have a hard time trusting either of these teams, but the difference is the Seahawks are coming off a narrow win at home to a team going nowhere and the Steelers lost on Sunday Night Football to the best team in the league. Logic would suggest the Steelers will play better at home and the Seahawks will play worse on the road this week, but there’s no logic in the NFL and nothing truly matters from week to week as each week is essentially its own season. For that, I’m regrettably picking the Seahawks.

TENNESSEE -3 over Indianapolis
I would like to thank the Titans for going to Cleveland and blowing out the Browns in Week 1. It was beautiful. Watching Odell Beckham be a part of another loss and Baker Mayfield scrambling to avoid eventual sacks before losing it on the officials with only a few minutes remaining in a four-score game was enjoyable. Beckham did get his targets (11), receptions (7) and yards (71), so I’m sure he didn’t care that the team lost. I’m going to show my appreciation for the Titans by picking them again in Week 2.

Dallas -5 WASHINGTON
I used to care about other NFC East matchups because they would have implications for the Giants and the postseason. The Giants aren’t going to the postseason unless they buy tickets, so I have to find other reasons to determine who to pull for in division games.

I don’t think Dak Prescott is a good quarterback, and the longer he plays for the Cowboys, the less of a chance they have of winning a championship. Since the Cowboys are in extension mode right now giving out years and money to anyone who comes in contact with Jerry Jones, it only makes sense that Prescott is next. It was all the FOX broadcast talked about during Sunday’s game against the Giants, and the Giants did their part by making Prescott look like a superstar by allowing him to throw four touchdown passes while racking up yards thanks to yards after the catch against the Giants’ horrendous defense.

The better Prescott plays, the more years and money he will get in his eventual contract extension. The more years and money he gets, the more players the Cowboys won’t be able to sign in the future, and hopefully that future coincides with the Giants return to being a competitive team. Here’s to Prescott going off against the Redskins and adding more zeros to his future contract!

Kansas City -7.5 over OAKLAND
The game which will be most used in teasers is also the second-best survivor pool game of the week. The Jaguars and their preseason top-ranked defense couldn’t stop the Chiefs, so I have no idea how the Raiders plan on doing so. The over/under on Chiefs punts in this game is 0.5 and I’m taking under.

Chicago -2.5 over DENVER
After the Bears proved that running the ball and playing great defense is still a successful formula in the NFL last season, they apparently thought they had now become the Saints of the north, allowing Mitch Trubisky to throw 45 times in Week 1, while only running the ball 12 times. That formula resulted in three points and a disastrous season-opening loss despite holding Aaron Rodgers to 203 passing yard and 10 points.

I have no idea what Matt Nagy was thinking in Week 1. What unfolded for the Bears couldn’t have been their game plan since someone in the organization would have spoken up and said, “Um, what the eff are we doing?” Nagy must have inexplicably changed course during the game, deciding to go with an air-it-out strategy. The only problem with that strategy is that his quarterback is Trubisky, who isn’t capable of that type of game, as a one-read-only passer who telegraphs nearly all of his passes.

I have to think the Bears will get back to what led them to a division title last season. If they do, the Broncos, who were beat up by the talent-less Raiders won’t have a chance.

LOS ANGELES RAMS -2.5 over New Orleans
This is a tough one. Not because the two teams are possibly the best two teams in the NFC again this season after playing each other to overtime in the NFC Championship Game last season. It’s tough because I have to pick for either the Rams, who laid an all-time egg in the Super Bowl against the Patriots, or the Saints, who no longer cover the spread at the Superdome and who cost me a two-team Championship Sunday parlay in January. The reason to not pick the Rams has more staying power and had a much more negative impact on my life, but the reason to not pick the Saints is more recent, including Monday night’s game in which a Drew Brees red-zone interception coupled with a Will Lutz missed field goal caused the Saints to not cover. I guess the only way to settle this is to go with the home team.

Philadelphia -1.5 over ATLANTA
If the Falcons’ season keeps going the way Week 1 went, Dan Quinn is going to be fired in a move which should have been made the second the Falcons blew their 28-3 second-half lead to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I don’t know how Arthur Blank can live with Quinn as his head coach after what happened in that Super Bowl and I’m not sure how he has kept him on after that loss and two more disappointing seasons. This season has to be Quinn’s last. It has to be. Until he’s gone it will be hard for me to ever pick the Falcons.

NEW YORK JETS +2.5 over Cleveland
I used to love Odell Beckham and would defend him because of his talent and because he had single-handedly won a few games for the Giants. That all ended last October when I wrote I’m Done Defending Odell Beckham after he helped lead the Giants to a season-crushing loss to the Panthers. I turned on Beckham for good at the right time, as it was clear he would never be part of the solution for the Giants and was only going to be part of the problem, if not the problem.

After the one-handed catch in Dallas made him a household name, he did everything he could to be in and remain in the spotlight. From outrageous in-game antics to unnecessary sideline actions to bizarre off-the-field behavior, Beckham wanted to be the focal point of every Giants game, win or lose. After the emergence of Saquon Barkley last season, Beckhamn desperately tried to hold his status as the Giants’ star attraction by increasing his sideline shows and saying whatever he felt would keep his name in headlines.

Eventually, Beckham’s behavior and inability to stay healthy overshadowed his ability on the field. The Giants decided the organization would be better off without the player they made the highest-paid receiver in history and the culture of the Giants would never change as long as he was a member of it.

Since Beckham’s arrival in Cleveland, he has kept up the same act he had with the Giants, speaking about his time and dismissal from the Giants at every chance and going over the top with his look-at-me longing for attention. Beckham wore a $190,000 watch in the Browns’ season opener, a game the Browns lost, adding to the embarrassing record for the Giants and Browns when Beckham has played for them. When asked about the watch, Beckham acted though he was the victim of a media attack, never recognizing for a moment he would never need to know the time of day in the middle of a game and never admitting the decision to wear a clearly visible watch in an NFL game was all for publicity.

Like I said last week, since the Giants can’t be expected to win the Super Bowl this season, my rooting interest has turned to rooting against the Browns because of Beckham. All Week 1 did was make me want to root harder against them, even if they’re playing the Jets.

Last week: 7-9

I have seasonal depression. The fact that it’s getting cold at night and the temperatures are going to begin to fluctuate enough from day to day that I will have to actually check the weather to see what I should be wearing saddens me. I hate that summer is over. I hate it. But like every year at this time, I’m happy that football is back.

The first week of football is special and the anxiousness at 1:00 p.m. on the first Sunday of the season is indescribable. Keeping up with the games, parlays, teasers and fantasy teams all at once, while drinking and eating thousands of bad calories for nearly 11 straight hours 17 times a year is magical.

In order to avoid a down week from a financial standpoint I have come up with some personal gambling rules to prevent any emotional or illogical decisions this season.

1. Don’t Be Tricked by Week 1
Week 1 is my favorite week to pick and wager on because your decision making is based on your own knowledge and feel for how the season will play out. Week 2, on the other hand, is a reaction and a lot of times an overreaction to what happened in Week 1. (If I could, I would sit out Week 2. I guess I technically could sit out Week 2, but we all know that’s not going to happen.)

I spend the entire offseason coming up with an opinion on each team, and then Week 1 happens, and some of those opinions, and at times a lot of those opinions, are destroyed or proved wrong. Except they aren’t.

Don’t let the results of Week 1 influence your original opinions on teams for Week 2. The Week 2 lines are the most reactive lines of the season because there is only one game of information to go off of.

I need to set a calendar reminder to read this paragraph when I write the Week 2 picks blog.

2. Be Careful with Thursday Night Football
It’s not so much about Thursday Night Football in September and October as it is in November and December when baseball is over and the time between Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football feels like an eternity.

The Thursday Night Football game generally sucks. Generally might be too generous. It sucks nearly every single week. The Opening Night Thursday game doesn’t count and neither do the Thanksgiving games since those are unlike the other Thursday games. Thankfully, this season, the Thursday Night Football schedule has given us matchups that include at least one postseason-contending team each week (at least for now). I have bolded those teams.

Tampa Bay at Carolina
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Philadelphia at Green Bay
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle
New York Giants at New England
Kansas City at Denver
Washington at Minnesota
San Francisco at Arizona
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Indianapolis at Houston
Dallas at Chicago
New York Jets at Baltimore

I didn’t want to bold Indianapolis or Houston, but I did because both teams were playoff teams last season and both teams could at least be in the conversation this season.

Even with the best potential Thursday Night Football slate we have ever received, it still doesn’t mean the games need to be bet on because there hasn’t been a game in 72 hours.

3. Beware of the Non-Bear Bs
It was always beware of all the Bs, but after the Bears’ 2018 season, they have removed themselves from the pack. Now watch the Bears regress like the post-2016 Giants and be the worst of all the Bs.

The Browns, Bengals, Buccaneers, Broncos and Bills are not your friend. Don’t get enticed by any high-point spread or any glowing money line.

It doesn’t matter that the Browns now have Odell Beckham to go along with Jarvis Landry. The Bengals’ quarterback is still Andy Dalton. Jameis Winston is still the starter in Tampa Bay even if Bruce Arians is the head coach. The Ravens decided to move on from Joe Flacco despite watching one of the single-worst quarterback performances of all time in the playoffs and now he’s the Broncos’ starter. The Bills … they’re the Bills.

4. Don’t Bet on the Giants
I have had some memorable runs with the Giants, especially their money lines over the years, but we are long past the point of where I have lost money overall on the Giants. Long past the point. If the point is Mischa Barton on The OC in 2003 then I’m Mischa Barton on The Hills in 2019.

I’m over thinking the Giants are good or are going to eventually be good midseason or are going to win each week. I’m over it. I need to accept the Giants aren’t going to be good in 2019 and need to realize no one really knows the next time they will be good. As a Giants fan, I need to expect the worst each week and not let inexplicable turnovers, undisciplined penalties and nonsensical in-game coaching decisions affect my life. I need to treat the Giants the way they have treated me in all but two years over the last 12 years: like I don’t care.

On top of this all, I need to somehow talk myself into thinking John Mara and David Gettleman have any idea what they’re doing and won’t further separate the Giants from contention. I need to talk myself into believing in Daniel Jones, the rest of Gettleman’s draft picks and the vision he has about building a team around a running back in a league which has drastically changed every rule to promote and help the passing game.

I won’t be betting on the Giants in 2019 because I’m suspending myself from betting on the Giants for all of 2019. (Unless, it’s in a teaser, of course.)

(Home team in caps)

CHICAGO -3 over Green Bay
In Week 1 on Sunday Night Football last season, I had my entire week connected to the Bears-Packers game. I had the Packers to cover (-7.5), I had the Packers’ money line as the final piece to a parlay and I had the Packers at 0.5 as the final piece of a teaser. When the Packers trailed 20-3 at the end of the third quarter, I figured all three bets were losses. Fortunately, the Packers came all the way back in the fourth quarter to win 24-23 and save two of the three bets.

I made those bets thinking the Bears were the same old Bears, and the result of that game showed me they were. But all of that happened before the Bears became the team that won the NFC North and should have won their wild-card game against the Eagles. I believe in the Bears this season. Or at least I believe in their defense. Give me the Bears at home in the first game of the season.

Tennessee +5 over CLEVELAND
Since the Giants can’t be expected to win the Super Bowl this season, my rooting interest has turned to rooting against the Browns. The last thing I want is for Odell Beckham to have any sort of success from a win-loss standpoint in Cleveland and what I really want is for the Browns to get off to a miserable start and have the offense divided in the locker room and on the field, so optimistic Browns fans can see the real Beckham at his best.

It’s unfortunate that it had to come to this. I enjoyed rooting for the Browns last season and was every bit as happy as real Browns fans when they beat the Jets in Baker Mayfield’s first game. But now I have to root for their demise. Though when you pair the history of the Browns with the issues Beckham brings, I won’t have to do much rooting. It will take care of itself.

Baltimore -6.5 over MIAMI
I’m sure Tua Tagovailoa is happy to see the Dolphins tanking as hard as possible for the first pick in the 2020 draft. Most first-overall picks end up in Cleveland or Oakland or some other cold-weather city with a crappy team no one wants to play on and a team that’s not going to be good for a while. But Miami? No one cares about getting drafted by the Dolphins and no one cares if the team is never going to be good when they’re living in South Florida and not paying state income tax.

MINNESOTA -4 over Atlanta
I was expecting this line to be higher, around 6. But when you collapse the way the Vikings did last season with Kirk Cousins, and when you’re as mediocre as the Falcons have been over the lastwo seasons, I guess 4 makes sense.

I don’t want to say how much money Kirk Cousins lost me last year. Actually, I can’t say because I have been too scared to add it all up. A year after riding the Vikings and Case Keenum to win after win after win, I tried to do the same for the 2019 Vikings and my bank account took more hits than Cousins, and no loss was worse than the Week 17 win-and-they’re-in game at home against the Bears, who had nothing to play for. But the same goes for the Falcons after I rode them to the Super Bowl a couple years ago only to frequently lose on them over the last two years.

I don’t want to pick Cousins to cover four points, but there’s no way I can pick the Falcons against a real opponent.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Buffalo
I wouldn’t say I believe in the Jets from a “going to the playoffs” standpoint, but I believe in the Jets from a “going to win enough to crush their fans” standpoint. There’s nothing worse than the idea of having to watch the Giants play meaningless games starting in October while the Jets are in a playoff race, which is most likely going to happen. But the good news for Giants fans is that while the Jets are looking at a schedule that could lead to a midseason six-game winning streak, the final three weeks of their schedule present opponents which could ruin their season and postseason chances. That’s what I’m looking forward to.

PHILADELPHIA -10 over Washington
If the Giants are going to suck, they better suck enough to finish last in the division to set up the easiest possible 2020 schedule and also have the highest possible draft pick. In order to achieve these “goals”, they’re going to need the Redskins to not suck as much as them, and that’s going to be hard because the Redskins are going to suck.

CAROLINA +2.5 over Los Angeles Rams
It made me sick to watch Jared Goff’s Super Bowl performance and then think about the contract he has. That was the Rams’ chance at a championship with him as quarterback. They were handed a gift on the non-pass interference call in the NFC Championship Game to appear in the Super Bowl, and then once there, the Rams’ defense did everything it could to put Goff and the offense in a position to win, and he played as bad as a quarterback could ever play. Unfortunately, after being part of delivering another championship to Boston, I will have to root against the Rams, like I do the Falcons.

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Kansas City
I’m expecting big things out of Jacksonville this season, especially now that the team has an actual quarterback to believe in, a healthy and dominant running back and the league’s top defense. The Chiefs will be a contender once again and seem to be the most-predicted Super Bowl winner, but a game that would have been an easy win for them last season won’t be this season.

Indianapolis +6.5 over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
I don’t think the Colts are a playoff team without Andrew Luck, but I don’t think they’re going to fall apart without him either. Jacoby Brissett has proven to be serviceable when he starts and behind that offensive line, being serviceable is more than enough. And for anyone who has watched the Chargers throw away easy covers over the last two seasons, it’s hard to trust them to cover a touchdown whether they’re playing against a team whose franchise quarterback retired two weeks before the season or not.

SEATTLE -9.5 over Cincinnati
Andy Dalton without A.J. Green at CenturyLink Field? We have everyone’s survivor pool pick and the game most used in a teaser of the week.

New York Giants +7.5 over DALLAS
Jerry Jones should be embarrassed for caving to Ezekiel Elliott. It’s not a surprise a deal got done and got done prior to Week 1. The Cowboys were never going to play a game without Elliott signed, and everyone wasted a lot of time covering, reporting on, reading about and watching training camp and the preseason as if there had ever been a real chance a deal wouldn’t get done. 

The Cowboys had a chance to show off their impressive offensive line against a weak Giants defensive line and have a non-Elliott running back go to town on the Giants’ defense and prove that Elliott’s success is a product of the Cowboys’ offensive line, and not that the Cowboys’ success is a product of Elliott’s abilities. This would have hurt Elliott’s leverage, and the Cowboys could have gone on without him, as he sat by and forfeited millions of dollars and destroyed his entire holdout plan. Instead, the Cowboys made Elliott the highest-paid running back in the line, gave him everything he wanted and did it just in time for him to return to face the Giants in Week 1.

Do I think the Giants will win? No. Do I think they can cover? Eh. As you read earlier, I’m not exactly an optimist when it comes to the Giants and I certainly don’t expect anything from them this season. If anything, I expect them to finish last in the league and have the No. 1 pick in the draft with Tagovailoa available, and have them draft Tagovailoa a year after using the third-overall pick on Daniel Jones, wasting the opportunity to build a complete core with Top 6 picks in three straight years. If the Giants are really becoming the pre-Baker Mayfield Browns, that would complete the transformation.

ARIZONA +2.5 over Detroit
If not for the debut of No. 1 pick Kyler Murray, what would be the appeal of this game to anyone who isn’t a Lions or Cardinals fan?

TAMPA BAY 0 over San Francisco
The cross-country flight and timezone change is no joke even if it comes in Week 1. If the teams are evenly matched on the field, the mismatch occurs on the sideline where Bruce Arians is levels above the man responsible for the Falcons’ second-half Super Bowl collapse in Kyle Shanahan.

NEW ENGLAND -5.5 over Pittsburgh
The Steelers have been frauds for a while now. Usually good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to do anything when they get there, let alone beat the Patriots once they’re there. Tom Brady has owned Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers in his career and after having seven months to think about and prepare for this game, this is about as confident as anyone can be in picking a game.

Houston +7 NEW ORLEANS
I’m done with Drew Brees. Done with him. Between his Week 13 127-yard performance against the Cowboys as a seven-point favorite and his interception in overtime in the NFC Championship Game, I’ve had enough.

In the past I would be scared off by the Superdome Saints, but not anymore. While I don’t love Houston this season since I don’t even like Houston this season, this pick is more about going against Brees and the Saints than it is thinking the Texans will be good enough to stay with the Superdome Saints in Week 1.

Denver 0 over OAKLAND
The last game of the week happens to also be the worst matchup of the week. Instead of this game getting lost in the shuffle, it will be everyone’e last attempt to make everything back from a poor week or really go for a big week with one final bang.

As a football fan, I will watch the beginning of this game in bed. As someone who doesn’t want to be tired the following morning because I stayed up watching and wasting my time with this game, I will find out if the Broncos covered on Tuesday morning.