NFL – Page 10 – Keefe To The City

Oct 24, 2013

NFL Week 8 Picks

The Giants won their first game of the season and I had my first over-.500 week of the picks season as my picks season continues to go as the Giants’ season goes.

A win is a win. That’s what I have been telling myself and my girlfriend since the Giants’ 27-7 “win” over her Vikings on Monday Night Football. I say “win” because I’m not sure beating Josh Freeman and his 33 incompletions should really be considered a win. But a win is a win and the Giants desperately needed one (one as is one win this season) and if they have

I’m not sure how to act in a lost season that goes missing in September with three months still to be played. I’m used to watching the season unravel in November or December with a second-half collapse ruining what once looked to be a division title and possible first-round bye. I know how to deal with that type of season. I don’t know how to deal with this.

All Monday’s win did was take the Giants out of the Jadeveon Clowney sweepstakes and give Antrel Rolle another week of “winning out” proclamations to spew on sports radio. It didn’t give any more realistic hope to an epic comeback and possible playoff berth and a win this weekend in Philadelphia won’t do that either. Win this weekend and then beat the Raiders and then the Packers and then the Cowboys and we’ll talk.

***

As the Giants season goes, my picks season goes. And with the Giants’ first win of the year on Monday Night Football, I enjoyed my first over-.500 week of the season at 9-6. Thank you, thank you.But with a 9-6 week comes expectations and if my picks season is going to really, truly mirror the Giants season then expectations are the last thing I need just when it looks like I might be ready to turn around the first half debacle.

Week 8 … let’s go

(Home team in caps)

Carolina -7 over TAMPA BAY
If I only had to pick the Thursday games, I would be having a great year at 5-2. But aside from that …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Panthers fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

San Francisco -16.5 over JACKSONVILLE
After earning some respect in their loss to the Broncos and getting Vegas to lower their next line to just — at home against the chargers, Vegas isn’t willing to make things so easy for the Jaguars anymore. The Jaguars have now scored in single digits in four of seven games and have lost by an average of 31.7-10.9.

Dallas +3 over DETROIT
Let’s pretend for a second that the Giants could eventually have a chance at playing in the postseason. (Yes, I know how ridiculous that sounds.) Now if the Giants are going to get there, the Cowboys and Eagles would have to go into the tank and that means losing games like this one on the road in Detroit. But for as much as I despise the Cowboys and I greatly despise the Cowboys, this year feels like their year. Not “their year” in the sense that it’s “their year to win a championship.” No, no, no. I mean “their year” as in “their year to win the division and reach the postseason.” And with the Cowboys in 2013, that’s all their goal should really be.

New York Giants +5 over PHILADELPHIA
It shouldn’t matter if Michael Vick starts or Nick Foles or Nick Vick or Matt Barkley, the Giants should be able to keep this game close.

KANSAS CITY -7.5 over Cleveland
You never want to pick for the team whose quarterback situation is such a mess that they have Jeff Garcia saying he is willing to try out to be their quarterback if they are willing to let him, considering Garcia is 43 and last threw a pass in the NFL in 2008. I think I’ll take my chances with the undefeated 7-0 team against that team.

NEW ORLEANS -11.5 over Buffalo
My apologies to Thad Lewis who I greatly underestimated last week as he and the Bills went to Miami and upset the Dolphins. (OK, maybe it was more like the Dolphins offense and the Bills defense that were responsible for the upset, but Thad still gets the W for his resume.) The problem with trusting Thaddeus now is that he isn’t going to South Beach to face a Dolphins team that last won on Sept. 22. He’s going to the place where all quarterbacks (even great ones) and all opponents (even worthy ones) go to lose and lose big.

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 12 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

So what’s the best medicine for the Saints to get back in the win column after losing in Foxboro on an improbalby last-minute touchdown coming off their bye? How about the Bills in the Superdome?

Miami +7 over NEW ENGLAND
Playing in Foxboro against the Patriots isn’t what it used to be in terms of losing, but that has more to do with what the Patriots offense has become and not what their defense is. Sure, teams still have a hard time winning game at Gillette, but we’re not picking winners here and no one says the Dolphins are going to win, but covering a touchdown on the road against a division rival?

Aside from their 20-point blowout of the Buccaneers, who might very well be worse than the Jaguars, here are the margins of victory in the Patriots’ other six games: 2, 3, 7, 7, 3 and 3. (The Patriots went 4-2 in those six games.)

New York Jets +6.5 over CINCINNATI
The Giants are 1-6. The Jets are 4-3 and with a win and a Patriots loss, they will be tied atop the AFC East with the Patriots at 5-3. Back in 2010, I feared that the Jets might take over the New York football landscape after they went to back-to-back AFC Championship Games while the Giants missed out on the playoffs in both 2009 and 2010. But then the Jets lost to the Giants on Christmas Eve in 2011 and the Giants beat the Cowboys the following week for the division title and then ran the table in the playoffs and won the Super Bowl and the landscape never changed. It’s not going to change in 2013, but I don’t like there even being a possibility that it could.

Pittsburgh -3 over OAKLAND
There are very few teams I would trust picking the Steelers to cover three points on the road against. The Raiders happen to be one of them. And with the Steelers riding back-to-back wins, a win in Oakland and a 3-4 record will keep their postseason hopes alive with New England, Detroit, Baltimore, Miami, Cincinnati and Green Bay still on the schedule.

Washington +13 over DENVER
Do I trust the Redskins on the road with their defense against the Broncos offense? Of course not! But I think I have been trusting the Broncos a little too much lately and it’s time to realize that the Broncos defense just isn’t good and certainly isn’t a championship-caliber defense. And it seems like RGIII has put an end to his early-season sophomore slump.

ARIZONA -2 over Atlanta
I think Kurt Warner was the Cardinals quarterback the last time I picked the Cardinals. But after getting burned by Arizona seemingly every week since then, it’s time I turn my back on the Falcons. When I first looked at this line I couldn’t believe the Cardinals were giving points and it seemed like taking the Falcons was easy, actually too easy, and whenever you’re presented with a game like this and a line like this, you get the feeling that something is off. And oh yeah …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Cardinals fan or a Falcons fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Green Bay -9.5 over MINNESOTA
Josh Freeman was historically bad on Monday Night Football after Leslie Frazier did the opposite of what any coach in any sport tries to do by putting their players in the best position to succeed. Frazier started Freeman and stuck with him despite the obvious lack of chemistry between the quarterback and his receivers. This week Frazier isn’t starting Freeman, but is instead going back to Christian Ponder, who got the Vikings off to an 0-3 start to the year. Ponder wasn’t good enough to start in Week 7 over a guy that had been a Viking for two weeks and had never taken a snap as Vikings quarterback, but now he’s good enough to start against the Packers? I know the first game everyone will be putting in their teasers this week.

Seattle -11.5 over ST. LOUIS
The Seahawks are trying to win the Super Bowl this year and the Rams reached out to Brett Favre about returning to the NFL to play quarterback for them.

Last week: 9-6-0
Season: 44-59-4

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Oct 17, 2013

NFL Week 7 Picks

My picks season continues to mirror the New York Football Giants’ season and that means last week was another week that ended in disappointment.

Six weeks ago I was looking forward to Giants football as the Yankees’ season crawled to a painful end. I was hoping for the Giants (along with the Rangers) to take off a little of the edge left by the Yankees and carry me through the fall and holiday season and if I was lucky enough, carry me through the disgusting January weather and maybe even into February like they did in 2007 and 2011. Instead the Giants’ season ended along with the Yankees’ season at the end of the September and now it’s Week 7 and the Giants have 10 meaningless games left and it will be 10 1/2 months until they have anything other than spoiling another team’s season to play for.

Things have gotten gradually worse for the 2013 Giants since the six-turnover game to open the season and I should have just turned them off and never turned them back on after the first play of that game when Eli Manning threw an interception right to DeMarcus Ware. Like actually right to him. The phrase “right to” had never had as much meaning as it did then. But I didn’t turn them off. I watched Eli do the opposite of fourth-quarter magic in that game as if he were a magician asking their volunteer “Is this your card? No? OK. Is this your card? No? This one? This one? Umm … this one?” I kept watching when the team fell apart in the second half against the Broncos and when the offensive line underwent the embarrassment equivalent of being pantsed in the sixth-grade cafeteria. I watched the Chiefs defense have their way in Week 4 and watched Nick Vick (the lethal combination of Nick Foles and Michael Vick) do what the Seahawks’ Charvaris Whiteson (the combination of Charlie Whitehurst and Tavaris Jackson) did to the Giants two years ago. And then last Thursday I watched Eli throw an interception on his second and fifth throws of the game and then with a chance to redeem himself and possibly save the Giants’ season he threw a third pick trying to beat the two-minute warning for no reason in what was more failed fourth-quarter magic.

Six weeks and five losses ago, David Wilson said this about his own season: “I’m at the bottom now. Nowhere to go but up.” He was wrong about his game and if that quote were about the Giants, it would have also been wrong. The Giants have only gone down since the “Disaster in Dallas” and maybe this lost season is bottomless when it comes to possible ways of losing.

***

My picks season has mirrored the Giants’ season through six weeks and maybe I will never see .500 this season the way they might never see the win column.

Week 7 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Seattle -6.5 over ARIZONA
The only thing I know is that I can correctly pick the Thursday game.

New England -4.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Saints learned that if you give Tom Brady the ball with 3:29 left and then with 2:24 left and then with 1:13 left, you will eventually lose. It doesn’t matter if he has no timeouts, no receivers or virtually no mathematical chance, he will make you pay.

The Jets lost to the winless Steelers at home in Week 6, leaving the Giants as the only winless team not from Jacksonville. But somewhere between being 3-3 and losing to the Patriots on the road in Week 2 and then losing to the Steelers at home, the Jets got their overconfident attitude back like the intolerable friend in your group that thinks he can get any girl. Here’s what Jets rookie defensive tackle had to say about Tom Brady as if he were part of the 2010 Jets:

“I’m not treating him like Superman. He’s Tom Brady; I’m Sheldon Richardson. He’s a name. He’s a figure, a franchise player. I’m trying to get after him, simple as that. No one really treats him like [Superman] around here. I think he’s the complete opposite of that.”

Brady is 18-4 against the Jets in his career (including five straight wins since the 2010 playoff game) and 1-0 against them with Richardson on the team. He’s 5-1 this season despite his leading receiver being Julian Edelman (real life) and led the Patriots to a nearly impossible game-winning drive against the undefeated Saints four days ago. Maybe he’s not Superman, since Clark Kent is Superman, but he’s more than a name and a figure.

San Diego -8 over JACKSONVILLE
The Jaguars were able to cover the four-touchdown spread againts the Broncos, but they still lost by 16 points and have yet to lose by less than double digits this season. That’s a trend I’m willing to follow even if it means needing Philip Rivers and the Chargers to continue it for me.

DETROIT -3 over Cincinnati
Last week the Bengals had to go to overtime to get by Thad Lewis and the Bills (possible band name like Jesse and the Rippers or Hot Daddy and the Monkey Puppets?) and they had to go to overtime because they let Thad Lewis lead a game-tying drive with 2:40 from the Buffalo 14 that ended with a 40-yard touchdown pass.

MIAMI -8 over Buffalo
The Dolphins were 3-0 and flying high before being trounced at the Superdome like every visiting team is and before losing a three-point game to the defending Super Bowl champs. The Dolphins are coming off their bye and looking to avoid losing further ground to the Patriots in the division and what better way to keep pace with the Patriots than to have Thad Lewis and the Bills in town?

WASHINGTON -1 over Chicago
A year ago the Redskins were all about RGIII and the pistol offense and the revival of football in the nation’s capital. Now the Redskins are all about RGIII’s sophomore slump and trying to avoid a team name change. It seems inevitable at this point that the Redskins are going to have to change their name with momentum heavily gaining against Dan Snyder and sports radio callers justifying “Redskins” as people with sun burns losing their battle.

I shouldn’t want the Redskins to win a game, but they’re 1-4 and the Giants are 0-6 and we need to clear out the bottom of the barrel in the league for Jadeveon Clowney. We need to narrow this thing down to the Giants and Jaguars and hope the Jaguars catch fire at some point. OK, maybe not fire and more like sparks or some semblance of heat and win a game or two or if we’re lucky three. OK, let’s keep it at one for now.

Dallas +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
It’s disgusting to know that the NFC East winner is going to be the Cowboys or Eagles. (No, this isn’t a reverse jinx attempt to get the Giants back in the playoff picture. Or is it?) Either Tony Romo or Michael Vick or Nick Foles of Nick Vick will be playing in January while the Giants are reevaluating things and themselves like you would do after a drunken, sleep-deprived weekend that includes leaving your phone in a cab, your card at the bar and Dominos boxes all over your living room.

CAROLINA -6.5 over St. Louis
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Panthers fan or a Rams fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

ATLANTA -7 over Tampa Bay
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Falcons fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

San Francisco -5 over TENNESSEE
I initially picked the Titans to cover after they were able to keep it close and cover against the Seahawks at home last week. But then I realized when the 49ers win, they win by an average of 18.3 points and when they lose, they lose by an average of 15.3 points. So if I think they are going to win the game straight up, which I do, then math says they are going to win by more than five. And if I’m wrong, I have math to blame.

KANSAS CITY -6.5 over Houston
Last year, the Broncos had to worry about the Ravens and Patriots and Texans in the AFC. This year they definitely don’t have to worry about the Texans, don’t really have to worry about the Ravens and as of now, they don’t yet have to worry about the Patriots. The Broncos need to worry about the Kansas City Chiefs. The 6-0 Chiefs who have allowed a league-leading 65 points in six games and 93 less points than the Broncos have allowed. Yes, the Broncos have scored a league-leading 265 points and 113 more points than the Chiefs, but high-scoring offenses don’t win in the playoffs (just ask any of those first-round exit teams Peyton quarterbacked that we are going to get to momentarily) and we’ll get a taste of which team is really the best in the AFC in Weeks 11 and 13.

GREEN BAY -10 over Cleveland
Since their bye in Week 4, the Packers have destroyed the Lions in Lambeau and knocked off the Ravens in Baltimore. The Packers would appear to be putting it together and that coupled with the idea of needing Brandon Weeden to do enough to keep it close in Green Bay are why I’m willing to take the Packers to cover two possessions.

Baltimore +1.5 over PITTSBURGH
The Yankees-Red Sox of the NFL in that no matter what year it is, no matter what the rosters look like, these two teams will play close games and that’s why you’re always better off taking the points in these games. Let’s go back to when Joe Flacco became the starting quarterback of the Ravens in 2008 and see how these two-game season series have gone.

In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and 13-9.

That’s 10 games with eight of them being decided by three points, one being decided by four points and one being decided by 28 (the Steelers had seven turnovers, yes seven turnovers, in that loss). Forget picking the Ravens to cover, is there a prop bet that this game will be won by exactly three points?

Denver -7 over INDIANAPOLIS
Jim Irsay went and did what a Midwestern billionaire who owns an NFL team would do and opened his big mouth about not winning more than one Super Bowl in 11 postseason trips during Peyton Manning’s career with the Colts. Sure, it might have been a little out of line, but Irsay has a point, doesn’t he? The Colts went to two Super Bowls in 11 postseason trips with Peyton Manning, but lost their first playoff game seven times and were just 9-10 and also helped the Patriots build their early-2000s dynasty. (Thanks for that, Peyton!)

What if John Mara made the same statement about Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin one day? I think he would also have a case. Since 2005, the Giants have won two Super Bowls and are 8-3 in the playoffs, but they have three losses in their first playoff games (2005, 2006 and 2008) and have missed out on the playoffs in three of eight years and after this season they will have missed the playoffs in four of nine years. Don’t get me wrong, I am perfectly content with the two Super Bowl wins over the Patriots, but you can’t help but think what more the Giants could have done without the second-half collapses.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 over Minnesota
The Giants are 0-6. The playoffs are out of the question and so is Jadeveon Clowney (I think). But this game might be one of the Giants’ only real chances at winning in 2013. At home against the 1-4 Vikings and Josh Freeman, who is trying to revitalize his career with a second chance in Minnesota. If the Giants can’t beat the Vikings at home then who are they going to beat? Here are their remaining games: Philadelphia, Oakland, Green Bay, Dallas, at Washington, at San Diego, Seattle, at Detroit and Washington. A loss to the Vikings will mean 0-7 and with each loss it will only get that much harder to win as players give up (well, those who haven’t already) and the pressure of winning a single game mounts.

Last week: 5-9-0
Season: 34-53-4

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Oct 10, 2013

NFL Week 6 Picks

I finally broke up with the Giants after their loss to the Eagles. But then I took them back just in time for their game against the Bears.

Breaking up with the Giants is hard to do. I deleted their number, unfriended them on Facebook, put all the memories they gave me in a box that I then labeled “JOKE” and have even avoided using the word “giant” in any context, choosing to go with “huge,” “enormous” and “mammoth” among others. But guess what? I let them back in my life! I know, I know! I’m an idiot and at midnight on Thursday night when they’re 0-6 and Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin and Justin Tuck are making excuses like a sophomore in high school whose English midterm is late again (no, that wasn’t me…) you can all tell me “I told you so.” But this morning, with the thought of being still in the division thanks to the Cowboys, it was the equivalent of seeing a few late-night texts from the Giants or seeing a request that “New York Giants wants to be your friend” waiting for me on Facebook and I couldn’t help but give them what is now their third chance this season. I know I’m stupid, but just shut up for a minute and let me explain.

The difference this time is I’m fully prepared for the Giants to get beat up by the Bears and run out of Soldier Field like a drunk Packers fan wearing a foam cheesehead with his entire body painted green screaming “Bears suck!” during a Bears-Packers game. I’m not going into this game thinking the Giants are going to win or that they even have a real chance to win. I’m going into the game hoping that they have a Lloyd Christmas-Mary Swanson-like small chance or even smaller to stay in the game until the fourth quarter and then maybe Eli Manning will find his missing fourth-quarter magic or maybe Jay Cutler will hand the Giants a win the way he has handed so many other teams wins in his career. You’re still not sold? Neither am I really.

***

Apparently as the Giants season goes, my picks go. Week 5 was another train wreck that proved that logic and reasoning is pointless when it comes to the 2013 NFL. On top of it all, anything you have seen or learned or figured out is worthless at the end of each week and completely irrelevant in picking the following week. It’s almost as if the movie 50 First Dates has become me making my NFL picks. And for as bad as that movie was, my picks have been worse.

Week 6 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

New York Giants +7.5 over CHICAGO
This is the last time I will be picking the Giants. The absolute last time. This is it. It’s really it.

KANSAS CITY -8 over Oakland
Picking an Andy Reid-led team with Alex Smith as the starting quarterback (even if they are undefeated) this many times is sure to backfire at some point. But the Chiefs have won four of their five games by at least nine points and that’s good enough for me to pick against the Raiders on the road.

Philadelphia -1.5 over TAMPA BAY
It doesn’t matter if Michael Vick starts or Nick Foles starts or Nick Vick (the combination of the two that we saw against the Giants) starts against the Buccaneers. Any of those three options is better than Mike Glennon, who will be making his second career start following Josh Freeman’s release and the circus Greg Schiano created down in Tampa Bay. And if Glennon for some reason can’t play or is removed from the game, you know who his backup is? Dan Orlovsky, that’s who. The future is bright in Tampa Bay.

BALTIMORE +3 over Green Bay
I originally had Green Bay -3 in this game and because I switched it Green Bay is 100 percent going to cover. I have been down on the Ravens through five weeks, but their 26-23 win in Miami last week has made me a believer for at least Week 6 in the Ravens. And I don’t really trust the Packers away from home.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over Carolina
Need a good laugh? Here’s what I said about the Panthers last week:

I know Bill Parcells said, “You are what your record says you are,” and the Panthers are 1-2, but they are good.

Done laughing?

The Panthers repaid my praise for them by getting embarrassed by the Cardinals. (The Cardinals!) A 22-6 loss in a game that featured seven combined turnovers (Carolina had four and Arizona had three), including three picks for both Cam Newton and Carson Palmer.

Meanwhile the Vikings are coming off their bye and their first and season-saving win against the Steelers in London.

HOUSTON -7.5 over St. Louis
The Rams did manage to beat the Jaguars by two touchdowns to cover their 11.5-point spread, but the Jaguars were in the game for far too long and did lead for enough time that it made me think the Jaguars wouldn’t finish the season 0-16 and made me realize just how bad the 2008 Lions were to finish that season 0-16.

NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Pittsburgh
I expected the J-E-T-S to get blown out of the Georgia Dome on Monday Night Football and instead they put together a 2011 Giants-esque game-winning drive to improve to 3-2 on the season. The Giants are 0-5 on the year, the Yankees’ season ended 11 days ago and in the Rangers’ most recent game they were run out of San Jose in a 9-2 loss. Maybe me picking the Jets this week will restore some order in the New York sports world.

Cincinnati -7.5 over BUFFALO
Last week someone named Jeff Tuel took over for an injured E.J. Manuel in the Bills’ 37-24 home loss to the Browns (who also lost their starter Brian Hoyer to a torn ACL and had to replace him with former start Brandon Weeden) on Thursday Night Football. (How great has Thursday Night Football for 17 weeks worked out?) How bad was Tuel? Bad enough that the Bills have signed someone named Thad Lewis off their practice squad to start over Tuel this week. Bills head coach Doug Marrone said, “Thad gives us the best chance to win,” but he’s wrong. He’s not wrong that Lewis is better than Tuel because he might be, though that’s not saying much. He’s wrong that the Bills have a chance to win this game. They don’t. Now we just need Lewis to be bad enough that the Bengals can cover.

SEATTLE -13.5 over Tennessee
Ryan Fitzpatrick finally gets a chance to start for the Titans and he gets the then-5-0 Chiefs (now 6-0) and the 4-1 Seahawks (soon to be 5-1). Sometimes things aren’t fair for Harvard graduates who get $59 million contracts with $24 million of guaranteed money.

DENVER -27 over Jacksonville
At no point would I feel nervous about taking the Broncos in this game. The Broncos beat the defending Super Bowl champions by 22 points in Week 1 and beat the Eagles by 32 points in Week 4. You don’t think they can beat the winless Jaguars by four touchdowns? The Rams managed to beat the Jaguars by two touchdowns last week.

SAN FRANCISCO -11.5 over Arizona
The Cardinals are on a mission to destroy my picks as best they can this season and so far they are succeeding. I can’t help that I want to pick against Carson Palmer every possible chance I get. Is that so wrong?

Since the 49ers were embarrassed in Seattle and Indianapolis in back-to-back weeks in Weeks 2 and 3, they are 2-0 and have outscored their opponents (St. Louis and Houston) 69-14. The NFC favorite that was supposed to go back to the Super Bowl this season is back after their two-week hiatus and now they need to put an end to the pesky, pick-destroying Cardinals.

New Orleans +1.5 over NEW ENGLAND
The Saints proved my whole theory about them being a different team outside the Superdome wrong with a win on the road at Soldier Field. But maybe that theory was only good for Saints teams of the past? Maybe the 2013 Saints are capable of winning road games against worthy opponents? Their two-point win over the Buccaneers said they weren’t, but now their eight-point win over the Bears says they are.

The difference in New Orleans is with Rob Ryan’s defense, which hasn’t allowed more than 18 points in a game this season (17, 14, 7, 17 and 18). In the past the Saints weren’t worried about giving up points knowing they could outscore any team in the league, especially at home, but now the Saints (at least through five games) appear to be a well-balanced team and that’s bad news for the rest of the NFC.

Washington +6.5 over DALLAS
I was nervous that the Cowboys were going to stop the 2013 Broncos train in the final minutes on Sunday, but Tony Romo put to rest my fears with a Tony Romo game-ending interception to keep the Giants mathematically involved in the NFC East despite having no wins. Now the Redskins are coming to the Big D with a chance to take over the division lead with a win and an Eagles loss. Everyone keeps talking about how the NFC East will be won by an 8-8 team or possibly even a 7-9 team. If it’s possible I’m pulling for a 6-10 team to come out of the East. The scary thing is the Giants would have to play .545 football the rest of the way and go 6-5 just to finish 6-10 at this point. Has anyone told Antrel Rolle this?

Indianapolis -2.5 over SAN DIEGO
I keep picking against the Colts and they keep making me pay. Thankfully, I jumped off the Chargers undefeated covering streak in time for their 10-point loss to the Raiders last week.

Last week: 5-9-0
Season: 29-44-4

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Oct 3, 2013

NFL Week 5 Picks

So last week wasn’t a must-win game for the Giants, but this week against the Eagles is. I’m serious.

October isn’t the same without the Yankees in the postseason. Luckily this October I have Giants playoffs games to watch.

The Giants have officially reached must-win status on Sunday against the Eagles because they’re not coming back from an 0-5 start even if the Cowboys lose to the Broncos on Sunday (or should I say when the Cowboys lose to the Broncos on Sunday). It’s not necessarily must-win from here on out because the Giants aren’t going to go 12-0 and run the table the way Antrel Rolle suggested they would on WFAN, but losing a second game in the division and falling to 0-for-the season through Week 5 would mean it’s over.

And with the Yankees’ offseason already being filled with enough nonsense that will take us up to and through spring training I don’t need the Giants’ offseason starting on Oct. 7 and don’t want to have nearly three months of meaningless of football to watch.

As for the picks, Week 4 was the first .500 week of the season … progress! Or as Alain Vigneault says, “Pro-gress.”

Week 5 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

CLEVELAND -4.5 over Buffalo
In the battle of beaten-down football cities, it’s hard not to pull for a Cleveland team that doesn’t have Nick Swisher on the roster.

Kansas City -3 over TENNESSEE
It’s weird that I’m not sure if it’s a good thing or a bad thing that Jake Locker isn’t starting for the Titans. And I’m not sure if it’s a good thing or a bad thing that Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting for the Titans. But right now against the Chiefs, it doesn’t matter.

MIAMI -3 over Baltimore
The Dolphins are 3-1 with their only loss coming in the Superdome, which isn’t the same as any other loss since it’s an automatic loss for any team the day the schedule comes out. Eight months after winning the Super Bowl, the Ravens are a 3-point underdog in Miami and I’m picking the Dolphins.

Jacksonville +11.5 over ST. LOUIS
Last week I said, “I think the only way I wouldn’t pick against the Jaguars right now would be if they were playing the Giants,” but I lied because I never thought the Jaguars would be getting 11.5 points against the Rams.

This should be the game where I say, “Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Cardinals fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.” But really it’s probably a good idea to bet on this game and bet for Jacksonville to cover. Yes, I just suggest that people wager ON Jacksonville. So far the Jaguars have lost by 26, 10, 28 and 34 and have failed to cover in all of their games. But this is the Rams we’re talking about. The Rams, who have given no offensive support to the career of Sam Bradford and who have no business being favored against any team by 11.5 points, even if that team is the Jaguars.

New England -1.5 over CINCINNATI
If it were 2012 and the Patriots had gotten to 3-0 against the Bills, Jets and Buccaneers and I called them out for not being a convincing undefeated team and then they beat the Falcons in Georgia, I would have to believe in them. But it’s 2013 and the Falcons aren’t the team that went to the NFC Championship Game and blew a 17-0 lead in that game and my 10-to-1 parlay with the Ravens to beat the Patriots. However, the Patriots are 4-0 and just doing what the Patriots do seemingly every year even with Tom Brady’s top receiver being Julian Edelman.

Seattle -3 over INDIANAPOLIS
The Seahawks are 4-0 despite being tied for 14th in the league in total yards and 26th in passing yards in a league, which revolves around throwing the ball. Once Russell Wilson’s passing game clicks, it’s going to be hard for anyone in the league to stop the Seahawks, considering no one has stopped them yet just from their rushing and defense.

GREEN BAY -7 over Detroit
The 1-2 Packers at Lambeau coming off a bye against a division rival who plays their home games in a dome? It’s not as easy picking the Packers as it was in the 2011 season.

CHICAGO +1.5 over New Orleans
The Saints are 3-0 at home and have outscored their opponents 92-41. They have only played one road game, but that was a two-point win over the 0-4 Buccaneers, who over the first four games have been the biggest mess in the league. The Bears aren’t the Buccaneers. Soldier Field isn’t Raymond James Stadium. And most importantly, the Saints outside the Superdome aren’t the Saints.

NEW YORK GIANTS -1.5 over Philadelphia
Last week I said, “Save the season or end it. If it’s the latter, I will probably have to pick against the Giants for the rest of the season.” Well, the Giants lost and their season didn’t end and I’m still picking them this week. But this is the final straw. I mean it.

Carolina -2.5 over ARIZONA
I know Bill Parcells said, “You are what your record says you are,” and the Panthers are 1-2, but they are good. They nearly beat the undefeated NFC-favorite Seahawks in Week 1, had a terrible late-game letdown effort in Buffalo in Week 2 and then absolutely destroyed the Giants in Week 3 in the worst loss of the Tom Coughlin era.

Denver -9 over DALLAS
Once again, at some point the Broncos aren’t going to cover. If it’s this week, so be it. But I’m not going to be on the other side of another Broncos blowout.

SAN FRANCISCO -6 over Houston
The 49ers are coming off a much-needed win against the Rams at home and got to enjoy an extra long week off after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 4. The Texans are coming off a devastating loss to the Seahawks that has called into question Matt Schaub’s abilities and future and has everyone jumping all over Gary Kubiak’s coaching abilities. It’s a recipe for disaster for the Texans in San Francisco.

OAKLAND +5 over San Diego
I have picked for the Chargers the last two weeks and they won for me and tied for me. In Weeks 1 and 2, I picked against the Chargers and they covered both times. So far this season the Chargers are 3-0-1 against the spread, which would make one think they should be all over them since they are staying in their time zone and division against the lowly Raiders whose lone win is against … you guessed it … the Jaguars! But I have learned over the last six years, mainly because of Norv Turner, that you can’t trust the Chargers and Philip Rivers and if you do, you can’t trust them for long. Trusting the Chargers for a third straight week and to continue their undefeated streak of covering is too long.

ATLANTA -10 over New York Jets
Geno Smith and the J-E-T-S on Monday Night Football in the Georgia Dome. The Giants won’t be the only New York football team with embarrassing blowouts on their 2013 resume.

Last week: 7-7-1
Season: 24-35-4

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Sep 26, 2013

NFL Week 4 Picks

The Giants face a must-win game in Kansas City and it’s basically a must-win week for my picks (whatever that means).

I’m used to must-win games right now after spending the last few weeks watching the Yankees endure them. But on Wednesday night at the Stadium (my last Yankees game of the year), I watched the Yankees go down in their last meaningful game of the season. It took the Yankees 158 games and 97.5 percent of the season for the season to finally end, which was way longer than anyone though it would last with the names they used to replace their stars. As for the New York Football Giants, it might only take four games and 25 percent of the season for their season to end.

Three weeks ago I would have chalked up a visit to Kansas City to face Andy Reid, Alex Smith and the Chiefs as a predicted win for the Giants, but three weeks ago I also didn’t see the “Disaster in Dallas” coming or the blowout from the Broncos or whatever the eff that was in Carolina last Sunday. Those who try to predict wins and losses with NFL schedules are always reminded that it doesn’t matter who you play, it only matters when you play them and right now the Giants in their current state couldn’t be facing a worse matchup than on the road in Kansas City against the Chiefs in their current state.

The Chiefs are 3-0 under Reid, who knows the Giants and how to beat them better than any other coach in the NFL. They are coming off 10 days rest following their Week 3 win on Sept. 19 over Reid’s former team in his former city. Everything about this game says the Giants will lose to the Chiefs the way the Jaguars, Cowboys and Eagles already have. But in this NFL with these Giants, nothing goes according to plan and this game likely won’t either.

The Giants are at their best when they have been left for dead and the entire football world has moved on from considering them a playoff team or contender. Right now the football world has a reason to do that at 0-3 even if they trail the always-ready-to-collapse Cowboys by only two games in the division with the Eagles at 1-2 and Redskins at 0-3.

I don’t expect the Giants to go on the 13-0-type run that Antrel Rolle alluded to the possibility of on WFAN this week, but I also don’t expect them to roll over and become the 2012 Eagles. Once again I had to learn the lesson of having expectations with the Giants the hard way and that’s why in Week 4 against the Chiefs I don’t have any expectations. The Giants have two options: 1.) Win and save the season or 2.) Lose and spend the next 12 games and 13 weeks playing meaningless football.

As for the picks, well it looks like we are coming to a crossroads with those as well and we’re not in “must-win mode” for the picks yet (whatever must-win mode translate to in terms of making picks), but we’re almost there. I said in Week 2 that it would be a grind to chip away at the damage done in Week 1 and since “The Disaster” I have answered with back-to-back 7-8-1 weeks, which isn’t going to cut it. While the Giants try to save their season on Sunday, I will be trying to save mine as well.

Week 4 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

San Francisco -3.5 over ST. LOUIS
If this game had taken place in Week 1 or Week 2 it would have been interesting to see what the line would have been. But it’s Week 4 now and the 49ers are tied with the Rams at 1-2 and two games back of the Seahawks in the NFC West. I thought after the 49ers’ Super Bowl run last season and the Rams’ gradual improvement over the last year that we were getting away from the NFC West matchups being must-not-watch TV and picks disasters. But maybe we’re heading back to that time period, which I wouldn’t mind since I miss the NFC West being the worst division in football and the NFC East being the best.

MINNESOTA +3 over Pittsburgh
When I first saw this line, my jaw dropped. The Vikings are getting three points at home against the Steelers?!?! Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?!?! This is too good to be true! And it was. Because I forgot about the NFL’s annual London game, which happens to be this one. So no, the Vikings aren’t home and neither are the Steelers. If anything though I’m guessing it will feel more like a home-field advantage for the Steelers if their fans, who travel well in the U.S., travel as well outside the U.S.

Baltimore -3 over BUFFALO
This game is a lot harder to pick than it appears. It appears as the defending Super Bowl champions -3 against the Bills in Buffalo, but it’s much more complicated than that after what we’ve seen from both teams over the first three weeks. I’m just going to hope that the Ravens defense has gotten its act together and will present never-before-seen problems for E.J. Manuel.

Cincinnati -3.5 over CLEVELAND
The Browns finally win a game with Brian Hoyer as their quarterback and suddenly their only 3.5-point underdogs against the Bengals? OK. Yes, I know the Bengals were in most of their games last year and in their two losses this year, but backing the Brian Hoyer era in its second week is a risky proposition.

Indianapolis -9.5 over JACKSONVILLE
This line could be -14 and I would still be on the Colts because we’re at the point right now where it’s going to be nearly impossible to pick the Jaguars. Last week, depending on where you got the line, the Seahawks were basically a 20-point favorite over the Jaguars and they covered that line with ease and I was willing to back the Seahawks as high as -35. I think the only way I wouldn’t pick against the Jaguars right now would be if they were playing the Giants. And unfortunately they’re not this season because the Giants could use a win.

Seattle -3 over HOUSTON
The Broncos are +300 to win the Super Bowl right now. The Seahawks are +450. I have no choice, but to ride this wave for as long as I can.

TAMPA BAY -2.5 over Arizona
Will the Buccaneers turn around their 0-3 season with a new quarterback in rookie Mike Glennon? Sure! Why not? In other words: Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Cardinals fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Chicago +2.5 over DETROIT
Pretty even division rivals, who have both been handed early-season wins? I will go with the undefeated one and thank you for the 2.5 points, Vegas.

New York Giants +5 over KANSAS CITY
Save the season or end it. If it’s the latter, I will probably have to pick against the Giants for the rest of the season.

TENNESSEE -4 over New York Jets
Earlier in the season I was thinking I could use the “Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans fan or a Jets fan is going to bet on this game…” line for this game, but now we have a 3-0 Titans team hosting a 2-1 Jets team and it’s like it’s 2008 again. I would actually enjoy a Kerry Collins-Brett Favre matchup over a Jake Locker-Geno Smith matchup … even in 2013.

SAN DIEGO +2 over Dallas
The Giants aren’t in as bad of a place as they should be at 0-3 because the Eagles and Redskins have both stumbled out of the gate and only the Cowboys have a winning record in the NFC East. What does that mean for the season? It means that the Giants are probably going to need a Cowboys collapse at some point to get into the playoff picture. What better time than now in San Diego to start the annual implosion?

OAKLAND +3.5 over Washington
When I go to pick Redskins games I envision RGIII running around the field, picking up first downs left and right and controlling the game. But really I need to envision the Redskins defense challenging the Giants defense for the belt as the worst defense in the league. I mean 98 points allowed in three weeks? If only the Giants hadn’t given up 115 in the first three weeks more people would be talking about the Redskins defense and less about what’s wrong, if anything, with RGIII. So far the Raiders nearly pulled of an upset in Indianapolis, beat the Jaguars and were dominated in Denver. The Raiders should have been 1-2 through their first three games and they are. The Redskins shouldn’t be 0-3 after their first three, but they are. Right now the Raiders are playing like the team everyone expected them to be and even a little better than expected while no one knows who the Redskins are or what they are going to be.

DENVER -11.5 over Philadelphia
Remember when Chip Kelly saved the Eagles and brought his Oregon spread offense to the NFL and it worked flawlessly against the Redskins? And remember when Chip Kelly managed the clock against the Chargers the way Grady Little managed a bullpen and cost his team a game and then when his team turned the ball over five times in Andy Reid’s Philadelphia homecoming? I do and I’m glad the last two weeks happened to the Eagles and their fans and the construction on the Chip Kelly statue in front of Lincoln Financial Field was halted while the team gave their fans a reminder and reality check as to who they are.

As for the Broncos, at some point the Broncos aren’t going to cover. If it’s this week, so be it. But I’m not going to be on the other side of another Broncos blowout.

ATLANTA -2.5 over New England
I will never forgive the Falcons for blowing a 17-0 lead and losing to the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game and costing me the two-team parlay at 10-to-1 odds I had along with the Ravens over the Patriots. But I need to put that devastating loss aside for Sunday Night Football this week and remember how good the Falcons are at home (nearly Saints-esque), the fact they are 1-2 and that the Patriots aren’t exactly the most convincing 3-0 team. A two-point win in Buffalo over a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut, a three-point win at home against the Jets and a rookie quarterback making his second career start and a Week 3 win at home over the Buccaneers in the middle of a quarterback crisis are the reasons for not being overly convinced that the 2013 Patriots are going to be anything more than a team handed a playoff spot because they play in a weak division (Hey, Los Angeles Dodgers!).

NEW ORLEANS -6.5 over Miami
I’m on the Dolphins bandwagon and I’m sitting in the front seat and making small talk with the driver of it. The Dolphins are responsible for three of my 17 correct picks through three weeks so I feel terrible turning my back on them for a week and going with the Saints, but until the Saints stop winning games by a touchdown at home, I don’t have a choice. With Sean Payton as head coach, the last time the Saints didn’t win a home game by at least seven points (including the playoffs) was also the last home game they lost with Sean Payton as head coach, which was a 23-13 loss to the Buccaneers on Jan. 2, 2011. So I’m sure the Dolphins will understand my decision.

Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 17-28-3