I usually reserve this space in the weekly picks blog to write about the Giants, but I’m not sure that will continue this season. Like Tony Perkis telling Nicholas in Heavyweights, “I’m a beaten man.”

The Giants have beaten me up since the beginning of the 2017 season, losing 25 of their last 33 games, and there’s nothing left to beat as a Giants fan. They have lost because of their quarterback; they have lost because of their receivers; they have lost because of their offensive line; they have lost because of their defensive line; they have lost because of their secondary; they have lost because of their coaching; they have lost in blow-out fashion; they have lost in the final minute; they have lost as time expires. The Giants have lost in every way imaginable over the last two-plus seasons and it’s hard to take it anymore. They aren’t a team in the middle of a rebuild with a light at the end of the tunnel and a clear timeline for when they will be competitive again. They are a team in the middle of a rebuild with no light at the end of the tunnel and no clear timeline for when they will be competitive again.

Thankfully, I have no expectations for them this season and don’t expect them to make the playoffs or go on a postseason run. My expectations are for them to be one of the worst teams in the league and once again pick near the top of the draft in 2020. Week 1 was enough for me to realize this is going to happen and I don’t know how it will get better or when it will be fun and enjoyable to watch the Giants.

Week 1 is all about survival and not getting buried with the picks record for the season just as the season begins. I survived Week 1. It wasn’t pretty, but coming away with a 7-9 record after some sloppy football and wild finishes is more than acceptable, at least to me. Week 2 has always been the hardest week of the season for me, and I’m sure it will be again this year.

(Home team in caps)

CAROLINA -7 over Tampa Bay
I love Thursday Night Football because it means football. I hate Thursday Night Football because of this blog. But the one thing I have learned over the years is if you’re unsure of who to take, take the home team on Thursday night. It makes it a little easier when the road team is the Buccaneers.

New England -18.5 over Miami
I don’t care about Tom Brady’s odd career record in Miami and I don’t care about all the weird things that have happened to the Patriots down south. This Dolphins team is unlike any other Brady has ever faced since this Dolphins team isn’t even trying to win and isn’t even fielding an NFL-caliber roster.

The Dolphins have one goal this season: lose more games than any other team. Achieving that goal will get them Tua Tagovailoa, and getting him will speed up their rebuilding process. The lines for Dolphins games are only going to go up, s0 feel safe teasing them now because pretty soon the lines are are going to be Alabama vs. New Mexico State-esque.

BALTIMORE -13.5 over Arizona
Kyler Murray’s NFL debut looked like it was going to be a flop when the Cardinals were trailing the Lions 24-6 early in the fourth quarter. But Murray led the Cardinals to a comeback which included a touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald with 43 seconds remaining and a successful two-point conversion to Christian Kirk to send the game to overtime, eventually tying 27-27.

Unfortunately, Murray’s feel-good start to his career and search for his first win will be put on hold in Week 2. This isn’t about the Ravens demolishing the Dolphins like a lopsided August college football matchup, this is about the Ravens being a postseason team with arguably the best defense in the league whether they embarrassed the Dolphins on the road or not. The Cardinals historically have been a disaster in Eastern Time Zone games and that’s only going to be enhanced for a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach flying across the country to face for the Ravens’ home opener.

San Francisco -1.5 over CINCINNATI
This is the type of game where I have no idea which way to lean and wonder who would ever bet on this game and it becomes the easiest pick of the day and the biggest laugher from a score standpoint. One of these teams will probably win in a blowout. I hope I’m picking the right team.

Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 over DETROIT
If anyone watched the Lions blow a late lead to a rookie quarterback/head coach combination like I did on early Sunday night, you too would not pick the Lions to cover. I don’t need any other information other than the fourth quarter of Week 1 to make this pick.

Minnesota +3 over GREEN BAY
It took the Vikings a full season and a disappointing 8-8 record to realize Kirk Cousins isn’t good. I guess better late than never. We know the Vikings have come to terms that they should have kept the much cheaper Case Keenum and not destroyed their salary-cap situation by signing Cousins because of their Week 1 game plan. The Vikings let Cousins only throw the ball 10 times in their win over the Falcons, running the ball 38 times instead of letting their unreliable and untrustworthy quarterback decide the game.

That game plan is likely the one the Packers thought they were going to see in Chicago before the Bears forgot who their quarterback is, so the Packers will be ready for it this week, except the Vikings have much better personnel than the Bears to pull it off. If the Vikings stick to their plan and don’t allow Cousins to ruin the game, they will be 2-0 and in first place in the NFC North. If they go back to what made them unsuccessful last year, they will be unsuccessful again.

HOUSTON -9 over Jacksonville
It’s never good to have a team +10.5 in a five-team, seven-point teaser and have that team’s quarterback break his clavicle on a 75-yard touchdown pass in the first quarter and have that team’s best defensive player get ejected from the game for throwing punches also in the first quarter, especially when that team is playing the best offense in the league. Yes, I had the Jaguars +10.5 in a five-team, seven-point teaser.

The Texans covered for me and should have won if not for playing the old prevent defense, which unsurprisingly gave the Saints a time-expiring win. The Texans surprised me and looked much better than I expected them to and DeAndre Hopkins looked as good as ever despite already being the best wide receiver in the league. Usually, I would have a hard time picking for the Texans, but here I am picking them to cover in back-to-back weeks to open the season.

Buffalo -2 over NEW YORK GIANTS
I have a feeling the first defensive and first offensive drives of the season are the only two times I will be happy with the Giants this season. Actually, I know they will. Because after seeing Sunday’s debacle in Dallas, I know the Giants still suck and didn’t improve at all on either side of the ball. This wasn’t just one game and it’s not early and only Week 1. This is a continuation of the 2018 season which was a continuation of the 2017 season.

So why would I ever pick the Giants to win their home opener against the Bills, who were also in MetLife on Sunday to overcome a 16-point second-half deficit to the beat the Jets, who at least on paper are must better than the Giants? I don’t care that the Bills will always be the Bills and I don’t care that the Jets will always be the Jets. The Giants are still the Giants of the last two-plus seasons and that’s much worse than the Bills.

Seattle +4.5 over PITTSBURGH
The Seahawks almost lost to the Bengals at home and almost knocked me out of my survivor pool on the first Sunday of the season. The Steelers were flat-out embarrassed, and Mike Tomlin rightfully ripped his team, and himself, after the ugly loss. I always have a hard time trusting either of these teams, but the difference is the Seahawks are coming off a narrow win at home to a team going nowhere and the Steelers lost on Sunday Night Football to the best team in the league. Logic would suggest the Steelers will play better at home and the Seahawks will play worse on the road this week, but there’s no logic in the NFL and nothing truly matters from week to week as each week is essentially its own season. For that, I’m regrettably picking the Seahawks.

TENNESSEE -3 over Indianapolis
I would like to thank the Titans for going to Cleveland and blowing out the Browns in Week 1. It was beautiful. Watching Odell Beckham be a part of another loss and Baker Mayfield scrambling to avoid eventual sacks before losing it on the officials with only a few minutes remaining in a four-score game was enjoyable. Beckham did get his targets (11), receptions (7) and yards (71), so I’m sure he didn’t care that the team lost. I’m going to show my appreciation for the Titans by picking them again in Week 2.

Dallas -5 WASHINGTON
I used to care about other NFC East matchups because they would have implications for the Giants and the postseason. The Giants aren’t going to the postseason unless they buy tickets, so I have to find other reasons to determine who to pull for in division games.

I don’t think Dak Prescott is a good quarterback, and the longer he plays for the Cowboys, the less of a chance they have of winning a championship. Since the Cowboys are in extension mode right now giving out years and money to anyone who comes in contact with Jerry Jones, it only makes sense that Prescott is next. It was all the FOX broadcast talked about during Sunday’s game against the Giants, and the Giants did their part by making Prescott look like a superstar by allowing him to throw four touchdown passes while racking up yards thanks to yards after the catch against the Giants’ horrendous defense.

The better Prescott plays, the more years and money he will get in his eventual contract extension. The more years and money he gets, the more players the Cowboys won’t be able to sign in the future, and hopefully that future coincides with the Giants return to being a competitive team. Here’s to Prescott going off against the Redskins and adding more zeros to his future contract!

Kansas City -7.5 over OAKLAND
The game which will be most used in teasers is also the second-best survivor pool game of the week. The Jaguars and their preseason top-ranked defense couldn’t stop the Chiefs, so I have no idea how the Raiders plan on doing so. The over/under on Chiefs punts in this game is 0.5 and I’m taking under.

Chicago -2.5 over DENVER
After the Bears proved that running the ball and playing great defense is still a successful formula in the NFL last season, they apparently thought they had now become the Saints of the north, allowing Mitch Trubisky to throw 45 times in Week 1, while only running the ball 12 times. That formula resulted in three points and a disastrous season-opening loss despite holding Aaron Rodgers to 203 passing yard and 10 points.

I have no idea what Matt Nagy was thinking in Week 1. What unfolded for the Bears couldn’t have been their game plan since someone in the organization would have spoken up and said, “Um, what the eff are we doing?” Nagy must have inexplicably changed course during the game, deciding to go with an air-it-out strategy. The only problem with that strategy is that his quarterback is Trubisky, who isn’t capable of that type of game, as a one-read-only passer who telegraphs nearly all of his passes.

I have to think the Bears will get back to what led them to a division title last season. If they do, the Broncos, who were beat up by the talent-less Raiders won’t have a chance.

LOS ANGELES RAMS -2.5 over New Orleans
This is a tough one. Not because the two teams are possibly the best two teams in the NFC again this season after playing each other to overtime in the NFC Championship Game last season. It’s tough because I have to pick for either the Rams, who laid an all-time egg in the Super Bowl against the Patriots, or the Saints, who no longer cover the spread at the Superdome and who cost me a two-team Championship Sunday parlay in January. The reason to not pick the Rams has more staying power and had a much more negative impact on my life, but the reason to not pick the Saints is more recent, including Monday night’s game in which a Drew Brees red-zone interception coupled with a Will Lutz missed field goal caused the Saints to not cover. I guess the only way to settle this is to go with the home team.

Philadelphia -1.5 over ATLANTA
If the Falcons’ season keeps going the way Week 1 went, Dan Quinn is going to be fired in a move which should have been made the second the Falcons blew their 28-3 second-half lead to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I don’t know how Arthur Blank can live with Quinn as his head coach after what happened in that Super Bowl and I’m not sure how he has kept him on after that loss and two more disappointing seasons. This season has to be Quinn’s last. It has to be. Until he’s gone it will be hard for me to ever pick the Falcons.

NEW YORK JETS +2.5 over Cleveland
I used to love Odell Beckham and would defend him because of his talent and because he had single-handedly won a few games for the Giants. That all ended last October when I wrote I’m Done Defending Odell Beckham after he helped lead the Giants to a season-crushing loss to the Panthers. I turned on Beckham for good at the right time, as it was clear he would never be part of the solution for the Giants and was only going to be part of the problem, if not the problem.

After the one-handed catch in Dallas made him a household name, he did everything he could to be in and remain in the spotlight. From outrageous in-game antics to unnecessary sideline actions to bizarre off-the-field behavior, Beckham wanted to be the focal point of every Giants game, win or lose. After the emergence of Saquon Barkley last season, Beckhamn desperately tried to hold his status as the Giants’ star attraction by increasing his sideline shows and saying whatever he felt would keep his name in headlines.

Eventually, Beckham’s behavior and inability to stay healthy overshadowed his ability on the field. The Giants decided the organization would be better off without the player they made the highest-paid receiver in history and the culture of the Giants would never change as long as he was a member of it.

Since Beckham’s arrival in Cleveland, he has kept up the same act he had with the Giants, speaking about his time and dismissal from the Giants at every chance and going over the top with his look-at-me longing for attention. Beckham wore a $190,000 watch in the Browns’ season opener, a game the Browns lost, adding to the embarrassing record for the Giants and Browns when Beckham has played for them. When asked about the watch, Beckham acted though he was the victim of a media attack, never recognizing for a moment he would never need to know the time of day in the middle of a game and never admitting the decision to wear a clearly visible watch in an NFL game was all for publicity.

Like I said last week, since the Giants can’t be expected to win the Super Bowl this season, my rooting interest has turned to rooting against the Browns because of Beckham. All Week 1 did was make me want to root harder against them, even if they’re playing the Jets.

Last week: 7-9

I have seasonal depression. The fact that it’s getting cold at night and the temperatures are going to begin to fluctuate enough from day to day that I will have to actually check the weather to see what I should be wearing saddens me. I hate that summer is over. I hate it. But like every year at this time, I’m happy that football is back.

The first week of football is special and the anxiousness at 1:00 p.m. on the first Sunday of the season is indescribable. Keeping up with the games, parlays, teasers and fantasy teams all at once, while drinking and eating thousands of bad calories for nearly 11 straight hours 17 times a year is magical.

In order to avoid a down week from a financial standpoint I have come up with some personal gambling rules to prevent any emotional or illogical decisions this season.

1. Don’t Be Tricked by Week 1
Week 1 is my favorite week to pick and wager on because your decision making is based on your own knowledge and feel for how the season will play out. Week 2, on the other hand, is a reaction and a lot of times an overreaction to what happened in Week 1. (If I could, I would sit out Week 2. I guess I technically could sit out Week 2, but we all know that’s not going to happen.)

I spend the entire offseason coming up with an opinion on each team, and then Week 1 happens, and some of those opinions, and at times a lot of those opinions, are destroyed or proved wrong. Except they aren’t.

Don’t let the results of Week 1 influence your original opinions on teams for Week 2. The Week 2 lines are the most reactive lines of the season because there is only one game of information to go off of.

I need to set a calendar reminder to read this paragraph when I write the Week 2 picks blog.

2. Be Careful with Thursday Night Football
It’s not so much about Thursday Night Football in September and October as it is in November and December when baseball is over and the time between Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football feels like an eternity.

The Thursday Night Football game generally sucks. Generally might be too generous. It sucks nearly every single week. The Opening Night Thursday game doesn’t count and neither do the Thanksgiving games since those are unlike the other Thursday games. Thankfully, this season, the Thursday Night Football schedule has given us matchups that include at least one postseason-contending team each week (at least for now). I have bolded those teams.

Tampa Bay at Carolina
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Philadelphia at Green Bay
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle
New York Giants at New England
Kansas City at Denver
Washington at Minnesota
San Francisco at Arizona
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Indianapolis at Houston
Dallas at Chicago
New York Jets at Baltimore

I didn’t want to bold Indianapolis or Houston, but I did because both teams were playoff teams last season and both teams could at least be in the conversation this season.

Even with the best potential Thursday Night Football slate we have ever received, it still doesn’t mean the games need to be bet on because there hasn’t been a game in 72 hours.

3. Beware of the Non-Bear Bs
It was always beware of all the Bs, but after the Bears’ 2018 season, they have removed themselves from the pack. Now watch the Bears regress like the post-2016 Giants and be the worst of all the Bs.

The Browns, Bengals, Buccaneers, Broncos and Bills are not your friend. Don’t get enticed by any high-point spread or any glowing money line.

It doesn’t matter that the Browns now have Odell Beckham to go along with Jarvis Landry. The Bengals’ quarterback is still Andy Dalton. Jameis Winston is still the starter in Tampa Bay even if Bruce Arians is the head coach. The Ravens decided to move on from Joe Flacco despite watching one of the single-worst quarterback performances of all time in the playoffs and now he’s the Broncos’ starter. The Bills … they’re the Bills.

4. Don’t Bet on the Giants
I have had some memorable runs with the Giants, especially their money lines over the years, but we are long past the point of where I have lost money overall on the Giants. Long past the point. If the point is Mischa Barton on The OC in 2003 then I’m Mischa Barton on The Hills in 2019.

I’m over thinking the Giants are good or are going to eventually be good midseason or are going to win each week. I’m over it. I need to accept the Giants aren’t going to be good in 2019 and need to realize no one really knows the next time they will be good. As a Giants fan, I need to expect the worst each week and not let inexplicable turnovers, undisciplined penalties and nonsensical in-game coaching decisions affect my life. I need to treat the Giants the way they have treated me in all but two years over the last 12 years: like I don’t care.

On top of this all, I need to somehow talk myself into thinking John Mara and David Gettleman have any idea what they’re doing and won’t further separate the Giants from contention. I need to talk myself into believing in Daniel Jones, the rest of Gettleman’s draft picks and the vision he has about building a team around a running back in a league which has drastically changed every rule to promote and help the passing game.

I won’t be betting on the Giants in 2019 because I’m suspending myself from betting on the Giants for all of 2019. (Unless, it’s in a teaser, of course.)

(Home team in caps)

CHICAGO -3 over Green Bay
In Week 1 on Sunday Night Football last season, I had my entire week connected to the Bears-Packers game. I had the Packers to cover (-7.5), I had the Packers’ money line as the final piece to a parlay and I had the Packers at 0.5 as the final piece of a teaser. When the Packers trailed 20-3 at the end of the third quarter, I figured all three bets were losses. Fortunately, the Packers came all the way back in the fourth quarter to win 24-23 and save two of the three bets.

I made those bets thinking the Bears were the same old Bears, and the result of that game showed me they were. But all of that happened before the Bears became the team that won the NFC North and should have won their wild-card game against the Eagles. I believe in the Bears this season. Or at least I believe in their defense. Give me the Bears at home in the first game of the season.

Tennessee +5 over CLEVELAND
Since the Giants can’t be expected to win the Super Bowl this season, my rooting interest has turned to rooting against the Browns. The last thing I want is for Odell Beckham to have any sort of success from a win-loss standpoint in Cleveland and what I really want is for the Browns to get off to a miserable start and have the offense divided in the locker room and on the field, so optimistic Browns fans can see the real Beckham at his best.

It’s unfortunate that it had to come to this. I enjoyed rooting for the Browns last season and was every bit as happy as real Browns fans when they beat the Jets in Baker Mayfield’s first game. But now I have to root for their demise. Though when you pair the history of the Browns with the issues Beckham brings, I won’t have to do much rooting. It will take care of itself.

Baltimore -6.5 over MIAMI
I’m sure Tua Tagovailoa is happy to see the Dolphins tanking as hard as possible for the first pick in the 2020 draft. Most first-overall picks end up in Cleveland or Oakland or some other cold-weather city with a crappy team no one wants to play on and a team that’s not going to be good for a while. But Miami? No one cares about getting drafted by the Dolphins and no one cares if the team is never going to be good when they’re living in South Florida and not paying state income tax.

MINNESOTA -4 over Atlanta
I was expecting this line to be higher, around 6. But when you collapse the way the Vikings did last season with Kirk Cousins, and when you’re as mediocre as the Falcons have been over the lastwo seasons, I guess 4 makes sense.

I don’t want to say how much money Kirk Cousins lost me last year. Actually, I can’t say because I have been too scared to add it all up. A year after riding the Vikings and Case Keenum to win after win after win, I tried to do the same for the 2019 Vikings and my bank account took more hits than Cousins, and no loss was worse than the Week 17 win-and-they’re-in game at home against the Bears, who had nothing to play for. But the same goes for the Falcons after I rode them to the Super Bowl a couple years ago only to frequently lose on them over the last two years.

I don’t want to pick Cousins to cover four points, but there’s no way I can pick the Falcons against a real opponent.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Buffalo
I wouldn’t say I believe in the Jets from a “going to the playoffs” standpoint, but I believe in the Jets from a “going to win enough to crush their fans” standpoint. There’s nothing worse than the idea of having to watch the Giants play meaningless games starting in October while the Jets are in a playoff race, which is most likely going to happen. But the good news for Giants fans is that while the Jets are looking at a schedule that could lead to a midseason six-game winning streak, the final three weeks of their schedule present opponents which could ruin their season and postseason chances. That’s what I’m looking forward to.

PHILADELPHIA -10 over Washington
If the Giants are going to suck, they better suck enough to finish last in the division to set up the easiest possible 2020 schedule and also have the highest possible draft pick. In order to achieve these “goals”, they’re going to need the Redskins to not suck as much as them, and that’s going to be hard because the Redskins are going to suck.

CAROLINA +2.5 over Los Angeles Rams
It made me sick to watch Jared Goff’s Super Bowl performance and then think about the contract he has. That was the Rams’ chance at a championship with him as quarterback. They were handed a gift on the non-pass interference call in the NFC Championship Game to appear in the Super Bowl, and then once there, the Rams’ defense did everything it could to put Goff and the offense in a position to win, and he played as bad as a quarterback could ever play. Unfortunately, after being part of delivering another championship to Boston, I will have to root against the Rams, like I do the Falcons.

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Kansas City
I’m expecting big things out of Jacksonville this season, especially now that the team has an actual quarterback to believe in, a healthy and dominant running back and the league’s top defense. The Chiefs will be a contender once again and seem to be the most-predicted Super Bowl winner, but a game that would have been an easy win for them last season won’t be this season.

Indianapolis +6.5 over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
I don’t think the Colts are a playoff team without Andrew Luck, but I don’t think they’re going to fall apart without him either. Jacoby Brissett has proven to be serviceable when he starts and behind that offensive line, being serviceable is more than enough. And for anyone who has watched the Chargers throw away easy covers over the last two seasons, it’s hard to trust them to cover a touchdown whether they’re playing against a team whose franchise quarterback retired two weeks before the season or not.

SEATTLE -9.5 over Cincinnati
Andy Dalton without A.J. Green at CenturyLink Field? We have everyone’s survivor pool pick and the game most used in a teaser of the week.

New York Giants +7.5 over DALLAS
Jerry Jones should be embarrassed for caving to Ezekiel Elliott. It’s not a surprise a deal got done and got done prior to Week 1. The Cowboys were never going to play a game without Elliott signed, and everyone wasted a lot of time covering, reporting on, reading about and watching training camp and the preseason as if there had ever been a real chance a deal wouldn’t get done. 

The Cowboys had a chance to show off their impressive offensive line against a weak Giants defensive line and have a non-Elliott running back go to town on the Giants’ defense and prove that Elliott’s success is a product of the Cowboys’ offensive line, and not that the Cowboys’ success is a product of Elliott’s abilities. This would have hurt Elliott’s leverage, and the Cowboys could have gone on without him, as he sat by and forfeited millions of dollars and destroyed his entire holdout plan. Instead, the Cowboys made Elliott the highest-paid running back in the line, gave him everything he wanted and did it just in time for him to return to face the Giants in Week 1.

Do I think the Giants will win? No. Do I think they can cover? Eh. As you read earlier, I’m not exactly an optimist when it comes to the Giants and I certainly don’t expect anything from them this season. If anything, I expect them to finish last in the league and have the No. 1 pick in the draft with Tagovailoa available, and have them draft Tagovailoa a year after using the third-overall pick on Daniel Jones, wasting the opportunity to build a complete core with Top 6 picks in three straight years. If the Giants are really becoming the pre-Baker Mayfield Browns, that would complete the transformation.

ARIZONA +2.5 over Detroit
If not for the debut of No. 1 pick Kyler Murray, what would be the appeal of this game to anyone who isn’t a Lions or Cardinals fan?

TAMPA BAY 0 over San Francisco
The cross-country flight and timezone change is no joke even if it comes in Week 1. If the teams are evenly matched on the field, the mismatch occurs on the sideline where Bruce Arians is levels above the man responsible for the Falcons’ second-half Super Bowl collapse in Kyle Shanahan.

NEW ENGLAND -5.5 over Pittsburgh
The Steelers have been frauds for a while now. Usually good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to do anything when they get there, let alone beat the Patriots once they’re there. Tom Brady has owned Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers in his career and after having seven months to think about and prepare for this game, this is about as confident as anyone can be in picking a game.

Houston +7 NEW ORLEANS
I’m done with Drew Brees. Done with him. Between his Week 13 127-yard performance against the Cowboys as a seven-point favorite and his interception in overtime in the NFC Championship Game, I’ve had enough.

In the past I would be scared off by the Superdome Saints, but not anymore. While I don’t love Houston this season since I don’t even like Houston this season, this pick is more about going against Brees and the Saints than it is thinking the Texans will be good enough to stay with the Superdome Saints in Week 1.

Denver 0 over OAKLAND
The last game of the week happens to also be the worst matchup of the week. Instead of this game getting lost in the shuffle, it will be everyone’e last attempt to make everything back from a poor week or really go for a big week with one final bang.

As a football fan, I will watch the beginning of this game in bed. As someone who doesn’t want to be tired the following morning because I stayed up watching and wasting my time with this game, I will find out if the Broncos covered on Tuesday morning.