The back-to-back losses ended whatever small chance the most optimistic of Giants fans thought the team had of reaching the postseason. Now at 2-4, the Giants are back to where they were before the Daniel Jones era began, and it would most likely take an 8-2 finish to earn a postseason berth.

This season was never supposed to be about the postseason, no matter how much smoke ownership, Dave Gettleman and Pat Shurmur tried to blow up the fan base’s ass during the offseason. This season was always going to be about transitioning from Eli Manning to Jones, seeing if the No. 6 pick would be the franchise quarterback and getting experience for both he and the young defense. The transition happened, Jones looks like he’s the future at quarterback and he’s gaining valuable experience. Now it’s up to the defense to display some signs of progress over the last 10 weeks, and then maybe, next season can be about trying to get back to the postseason.

Even if the Giants were to beat the Cardinals this week (and they should), their schedule still consists of road games at Detroit, Chicago and Philadelphia and games at MetLife against Dallas, the Jets, Green Bay and Philadelphia. The Giants aren’t reeling me back in if they are 3-4 after this week or even 4-4 after next week. Their defense isn’t good enough to reel anyone back in.

The next 10 games are about next season. Forget the postseason, experience and progress are all that matter now. And if the Giants get and show both, no matter what their final record is, it will be a successful season.

***

(Home team in caps)

Kansas City -3 over DENVER
Two weeks ago, this line might have been double digits. But after back-to-back losses, the Chiefs are only giving 3 to the Broncos? I get that it’s on the road and the Denver defense is still solid, but in order to go against the Chiefs here, you would have to think they are more like the team that has lost back-to-back games to the Colts and Texans and less like the team that came within overtime of going to the Super Bowl last season. I’m not ready yet to think they are anything other than the second-best team in the AFC.

Los Angeles Rams -3 over ATLANTA
Like the Chiefs, the Rams have a losing streak of their own, except theirs is a three-game. What’s the best cure for a three-game losing streak? A game against the Falcons.

BUFFALO -17 over Miami
The Dolphins front office had to be sick to their stomach when their team nearly won in Week 6 against the Redskins. Thankfully, for Dolphins fans, the team lost by one point and remains winless and in line to receive the No. 1 pick in the draft. This season is all about acquiring that pick and many others (which they have already done), and then drafting Tua Tagovailoa and contending within the next four years.

Jacksonville -3.5 over CINCINNATI
Don’t think for a second the Bengals aren’t starting to think about Tagovailoa the way the Dolphins have been since the offseason. The Bengals are horrible, but even at 0-6, they have been in most of their games, losing four of them by six points or less. Eventually, the Bengals will win a game and take themselves out of the Tagovailoa sweepstakes, but it won’t be this week.

Minnesota -2 over DETROIT
It’s nearly impossible to trust the Vikings and know which version of their offense you’re going to get from week to week. Is it going to be the offense which did whatever it wanted against the Falcons, Raiders, Giants and Eagles or the one which no-showed against the division rival Packers and Bears? The NFC is wide open this season without a truly dominant team. Maybe that team will be the Saints again, but for now, it’s no one. The Vikings have as good of a chance as any team in the conference to reach the Super Bowl if they can put it all together and survive their own division. They will need to start winning games in their division though. (I’m well aware Kirk Cousins is going to ruin this pick.)

GREEN BAY -4.5 over Oakland
I have no idea how the Raiders are 3-2 and how they have managed to win games against the Colts and Bears. Everything about this team from their coaching staff to their actual roster says they should be one of the league’s worst, but here they are with a winning record through five games. Despite their record, I don’t think the Raiders are for real or even good, and that will start to show this week.

Houston +1 over INDIANAPOLIS
Both teams have had bad losses and impressive wins, seem to be evenly matched and are division opponents. Everything about this game says it should be a three-point line in favor of the home team, and it seems odd it’s only 1. Because of the oddness, I’m going to be safe and take the one point.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 over Arizona
For as bad as the Giants have been, they are only game back in the NFC East. No, I don’t think the Giants have a chance to win the division with their defense, I’m just pointing out how bad the Eagles and Cowboys are. All I care about with the Giants is Daniel Jones gaining valuable experience, the defense showing signs of progress and a nice sendoff for Eli Manning in the season finale at home against the Eagles. Is that too much to ask? As for the pick, always go against the Cardinals outside on the East Coast.

San Francisco -10 over WASHINGTON
The Redskins won their first game last week and that will be the only win they get this season. The easiest opponent the Redskins have left is the Giants, who already beat them by 21 in Week 4. There’s a good chance the Redskins don’t finish another game this season within double-digit points of their opponent.

TENNESSEE -2 over Los Angeles Chargers
It’s the battle for the biggest disappointment of 2019. The Chargers went to the playoffs last year, won their first game and then were thoroughly embarrassed in their second only to return this season with a 2-4 start and back-to-back home losses to the Broncos and the third-string quarterback Steelers. The Titans finished 8-8 last year and looked poised to take a big step this season, only to also begin 2-4, while scoring seven points or less in half of their games. It’s hard to not considering the Titans a bigger disappointment when their franchise quarterback was benched in Week 6 for Ryan Tannehill, but it’s the Chargers who are the biggest disappointment as their championship aspirations are on the verge of crumbling, and might be gone after this week.

New Orleans +3.5 over CHICAGO
The Saints are undefeated with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback as he keeps adding money to the contract he will inevitably sign based off this run. Good for him after the Vikings screwed him over post-injury and he had to momentarily be a Jet and then back up Drew Brees. It’s scary to go against the Bears defense at home, coming off a bye, but this isn’t about going against the Bears defense, it’s about going against their offense.

Baltimore +3.5 over SEATTLE
The Seahawks have won five games. Four of their wins have been by 1, 2, 1 and 4 points. Their only loss of this season was at home to the Teddy Bridgewater Saints. The Seahawks can’t be trusted to cover as favorites at home like they once could, and they can’t be trusted against good opponents either.

Philadelphia +3 over DALLAS
There was a time when the NFC East was easily the best division in football. But it’s been nearly a decade now since that was true, and somehow, for as bad as the Giants have been this season, they’re only one game back of both of these teams for the best record in the division. The Cowboys are clearly frauds with wins over the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins to open the season and now three straight losses to the Saints, Packers and Jets. The Eagles have been the model for inconsistency with one only one good win on the season and two sloppy losses. I’m taking the points because it’s the safe thing to do.

NEW YORK JETS +10 over New England
I can see it now: the Jets are going to make their season interesting. Even if they don’t win this week, though they very well could if the Patriots play the way they did against the Giants, the Jets have Jacksonville then Miami, the Giants, Washington, Oakland, Cincinnati and Miami again. Let’s say they lose to the Patriots because they always do, they will be 1-5. But then they have seven more-than-winnable games in a row. There’s a chance the Jets could reel their fans back in and be around 7-6 with three games remaining and in contention for a postseason berth. But then, they will most likely need to win in Week 17 in Buffalo, and they won’t.

Last week: 7-7-0
Season: 42-49-1

After losing to the Cowboys and Bills to open the season, if the Giants really wanted to have any chance at the postseason this season (even though they never really had a chance), they would have had to beat the Vikings on Sunday or pull off the most improbably of upsets (given their defense) over the Patriots on Thursday. The Giants scored 10 points and let Kirk Cousins of all quarterbacks do whatever he wanted against them in an 18-point loss Sunday, and now they will play the Patriots on the road in a short week without Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard or Evan Engram. Eli Manning should feel lucky to be on the sideline for this one.

The Giants’ only goal this season is back to what it was prior to the season, and what it’s really been all along outside of the one calendar-week window where back-to-back wins gave the team and its fans the slightest idea of a miracle season ending with a postseason berth. That goal is to get Daniel Jones experience and improve the defense. The first part of the goal is going well, the second part, not so well. The defense is going to have its work cut out for them on Thursday Night Football against Tom Brady and the undefeated Patriots, and if the Giants have so far let Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Jamies Winston and Cousins put up video game-like numbers against them in the first half alone, what is Brady going to do against them?

I’m happy the Giants are playing on an off day for the Yankees, but I’m not happy it’s this game that’s being played.

(Home team in caps)

NEW ENGLAND -17 over New York Giants
The Giants will be without their all-world running back, No. 1 wide receiver and possibly the league’s top tight end. I have no idea how they’re going to score points to cover against this Patriots team and Patriots defense, which looks like the Patriots’ defense from the early years of the Brady era. Unlike some of the Patriots’ other opponents, the Giants don’t have a defense capable of scoring a touchdown for a backdoor cover, and after putting up only 10 points at home against a lesser opponent in the Vikings, scoring 10 on Thursday would be a lot.

Carolina -2.5 over TAMPA BAY (in London)
Finally, some Sunday morning football, so if I wake up hungover at 7 a.m. on Sunday I will have something to watch when I can’t fall back asleep. The Panthers are 4-0 when Kyle Allen starts since his first start last season, and since that start, the Panthers are 0-9 when Cam Newton starts. There shouldn’t even be a quarterback controversy for the Panthers. Allen is better.

BALTIMORE -11 over Cincinnati
The Bengals are 0-5 and tied with the Redskins for the worst record in the league. I don’t expect either to finish as the worst team in the league (that honor goes to the Dolphins), but now that the Bengals are 0-5, they have to be thinking about what their future could look like with Tua Tagovailoa as their quarterback. That has to scares the Dolphins and their fans.

Seattle -1.5 over CLEVELAND
The Browns suck. People were actually picking them to win the AFC and go to the Super Bowl because … I have no idea? The idea the Browns were going to be one of the top teams in the league because Baker Mayfield is now in his second year or because they traded for Odell Beckham was preposterous. The Browns have now suffered two losses of at least 28 points in the first five weeks of the season, and now have Seattle at home before their bye, and then road games at New England and Denver. The Browns might be improved from the Browns we have come to know, but they’re an eight-win team at best.

New Orleans +1 over JACKSONVILLE
The Saints are 3-0 when Teddy Bridgewater starts. I wonder how Vikings fans feel about that. Actually, I know since my wife is a Vikings fan and she isn’t happy about it. Jets fans can’t be happy either after they traded away Bridgewater for nothing to the Saints prior to last season and then could have used him to stay afloat over the last four weeks this season. Instead, he’s helping the Saints stay afloat until Drew Brees can come back, and he’s building himself up for a nice payday and a starting job somewhere in 2020.

KANSAS CITY -4.5 over Houston
I watched the Colts lose to the Raiders two weeks ago and everything I thought I knew about this Colts team was erased. But then the Colts went out on Sunday Night Football this past week and won on the road in Kansas City, where no visiting team wins, further proving each week of the NFL season needs to be evaluated as a one-week season. Nothing about this sport and the result make sense and it’s absolutely ridiculous that I or anyone wager money on it. It’s just so fun not to.

Washington -3.5 over MIAMI
If FOX isn’t calling this the Tua Bowl on Sunday then what’s the point of anything? The two worst teams in the league going head-to-head and one will come out with a win they certainly don’t want. I think it’s going to be the Redskins because I think the Dolphins have made it more than clear they will lose at all costs to get the No. 1 pick. With the Redskins and Bengals at 0-5, the Dolphins need to make sure they lose this game or their entire rebuilding plan will be ruined. The biggest Redskins fan in the world on Sunday will be Tagovailoa.

MINNESOTA -3 over Philadelphia
This game was the hardest one for me to pick because as someone who bought the Sunday Ticket solely for Vikings games, I have seen every game in its entirety of the Cousins era. The Vikings are good because of their defense, but they’re not great because of Cousins. But the Eagles are just as average as the Vikings, and because of that, I have to take the home team.

ARIZONA +2.5 over Atlanta
Once an owner starts commenting on the status of the team’s head coach to the media, that head coach is done. That’s exactly what’s happening in Atlanta. It’s a move that’s way overdue, and a move that should have been made the second the Super Bowl collapse happened, but it’s a move that’s coming before the start of next season.

LOS ANGELES RAMS -3.5 over San Francisco
If you had to bet on Greg Zuerlein to successfully kick a 44-yard field-goal attempt, you would bet for him every time. That’s the situation I was in in the Rams-Seahawks game last week when the Rams had a chance to win the game if Zuerlein convered the 44-yard attempt as time expired. He didn’t and the Rams lost and my pick lost and my bank account lost. That loss was the Rams’ second straight, something I didn’t think was possible for this team in this window. A third straight loss? No way.

Tennessee +2.5 over DENVER
The Broncos surprised everyone with a win on the road against the Chargers. The Chargers losing one of their easier games at home to a Broncos team, which looked dysfunctional on offense for the first four games of the season shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone since that’s the exact kind of game the Chargers always lose. Meanwhile, the Titans, who I wrongly predicted to build off their 8-8 finish last season, lost a 14-7 game in Buffalo after their eventually-released kicker missed all for field-goal attempts. For two teams with good defenses who have trouble moving the ball on offense, the over/under on this barnburner should be 20.

NEW YORK JETS +7.5 over Dallas
The good news for the Jets is their quarterback is back. The bad news for the Jets is it will take a miracle for them to save their season. If 10 wins gets the Jets a playoff berth, they would have to go 10-2 the rest of the way. Their next three games are against Dallas, New England and Jacksonville, which means they could be eliminated from going 10-2 in the next three weeks. The Jets finally had a roster capable of reaching the playoffs and a schedule that would allow them an easy path to do so, and it just didn’t work out, the way things never work out for the Jets.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -6.5 over Pittsburgh
The Chargers are 2-3 this season. Their two wins were a home overtime win over Indianapolis in Week 1 and a win at Miami in Week 4. Their three losses have been to Detroit, Houston and Denver, and in those three games, they have scored 10, 20 and 13 points, for an average of 14.3 points per game. What happened to the Chargers team that looked like a Super Bowl contender nine months ago and was able to put up points with ease? The Chargers’ schedule is about to get extremely difficult with two timezone-changing trips and Green Bay and Kansas City before their Week 12 bye. If the Chargers can’t win this game, and win big, against a Pittsburgh team on their third-string quarterback, then call it a season and we’ll see the Chargers again next September.

GREEN BAY -4 over Detroit
Unless you’re a Lions fan, you would have to be crazy to ever bet on Lions game, for or against them. If you bet for them, they will screw you. If you bet against them, they will screw you. There’s no knowing what type of effort you will get from Lions and what kind of comeback they will produce or what kind of late-game meltdown they will endure. The safest thing to do is to pick against them.

Last week: 7-7-1
Season: 35-42-1

The Giants have done exactly what I thought they would do. They have turned a lost 0-2 season into a reel-Giants-fans-back-in 2-2 season. But after playing two easy opponents (though no opponent for the Giants is easy), they now have the Vikings on Sunday followed by the Patriots on Thursday. Winning one of the two next games would be a major accomplishment and would continue to keep this season alive. Losing both would send the season right back to where it was before the Daniel Jones era began.

I haven’t bought into this Giants team as one that has turned their season around and is going to truly battle for a postseason berth. It’s hard to when their defense got worked over for the first three weeks of the seasons, and one of their two wins was a direct result of a kicker missing two extra points and a game-winning, 34-yard field-goal attempt. The only game the Giants looked convincingly better than their opponent was against the Redskins last week, and the Redskins are winless and were forced to play their rookie quarterback who had yet to play because the head coached deemed him not ready.

After the Vikings and Patriots, the Giants also have to play the Cowboys, Eagles twice, Bears and Packers. Since no opponent is “easy” when it comes to the Giants, let’s assume the following opponents aren’t “easy” but rather “easier” than the others: Cardinals, Lions, Jets, Dolphins and Redskins. (I included the 2-1-1 Lions who are extremely close to being 4-0 with the “easier” group because they don’t belong with the first list of teams.) That gives the Giants seven challenging games and five “easier” games to play.

It’s quite possible the Giants could fight for a seven- or eight-win season, which would be a successful season considering how the last two seasons went, most of the games will have been started by a rookie quarterback, the absence of Saquon Barkley for multiple weeks, the state of the defense and that Pat Shurmur is their head coach. I would sign up for 7-9 or 8-8 right now because that would mean the team is actually making progress rather than deteriorating and continuing to go in the wrong direction. It would also mean I cover my over six wins prediction for the Giants.

The next two weeks will tell us a lot about what to expect from the Giants for the next three months. Two losses and they haven’t changed. One win and there’s reason to be intrigued. Two wins and … if the Giants beat both the Vikings and Patriots to improve to 4-2 on the season and 4-0 with Daniel Jones, I book a hotel room in Miami for the Super Bowl. But let’s start with them winning one of the two games and go from there.

***

Well, it’s going to be tough to climb out of this hole. After a nice, solid 9-7 Week 3, Week 4 was an absolute disaster at 5-10. I’m sure I wasn’t the only one losing teasers involving the Colts, Rams, Texans or Vikings, and I’m sure a lot of survivor pool dreams were crushed by the Rams’ lack of defense against a Buccaneers which lost to the Giants. Underdogs went 10-5 against the spread with eight of them winning outright.

Week 4 was certainly forgettable, but thankfully, there’s another week ahead to get back to winning, and 13 more weeks to erase this under-.500 record.

(Home team in caps)

Los Angeles +1 over SEATTLE
I never like taking the road team on Thursday Night Football and I don’t usually like taking any team at Seattle, but there are exceptions to everything. The exception here is that the Rams suffered an embarrassing loss at home to a Buccaneers team which had to fly across country reeling from a loss to the Giants. The Rams will be looking for redemption on the short week.

CINCINNATI -3 over Arizona
After the hard-to-watch Monday Night matchup, which was so hard to watch, I watched it for less than five minutes, we get another winless matchup early on Sunday.

TENNESSEE -3 over Buffalo
I was high on the Titans coming into the season and their Week 1 blowout win over the Browns validated my being high on them. Then they went out and back-to-back games and I figured they were the same old .500-ish Titans. But they were able to beat the Falcons (not exactly a great accomplishment) last week and now I’m ready to ride them again.

Chicago -6 over OAKLAND
The Colts should be embarrassed for the way they played on Sunday, allowing the Raiders to go down the field on their defense with ease. I can’t envision them having them offensive success this week going against the best defense in the league, even if they are at home. Derek Carr better have his head on a swivel in Khalil Mack’s return to Oakland, where he will want to put on a show for his former fans and for the team who thought it was a good idea to not pay him.

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 over Tampa Bay
That’s two starts for Teddy Bridgewater and two wins for the Saints. It’s almost as if the Vikings should have kept Bridgewater, so they wouldn’t now be wasting their championship window on the Kirk Cousins era in which they are 10-10 with nearly $100 million in guaranteed money tied up with a mediocre-at-best quarterback.

NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 over Minnesota
My wife is a Vikings fan. Yes, a Vikings from Los Angeles. Long story. Do I really believe the Giants’ winning streak will reach three games and they will be able to score against the Vikings’ defense like they did against Tampa Bay and Washington or that they will be able to play defense against Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs? No. But I can’t pick against them with so much on the line at home.

PHILADELPHIA -13.5 over New York Jets
Will the Jets’ offense score a touchdown coming out of their bye week? I don’t think so since the Eagles are also essentially coming out of a bye with a 10-day layoff. This has to be the most pick survivor pool game of the week with the Dolphins on their bye.

Baltimore -3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I couldn’t have been more wrong about the Ravens last week and thinking they were in the level just below the Patriots and Chiefs in the AFC. Teams in that level don’t get run out of their own building. But in actuality, that level doesn’t even exist this season. It’s the Patriots and Chiefs and then everyone else is much, much far behind the two. The AFC is essentially the NBA in that we already know how the playoffs will unfold. 

New England -15.5 over WASHINGTON
The Patriots have failed to cover back-to-back weeks after a defensive touchdown gave the Jets a backdoor cover over them in Week 3 and a missed extra point allowed the Bills to cover in Week 4. After watching the Redskins blow a sizable lead to the Eagles in Week 1 and then get routed by a Giants team which shouldn’t rout any team, I think it’s safe to say the Patriots will get back to covering this week.

CAROLINA -3.5 over Jacksonville
Last week, I wrote:

I have never listened to North Carolina sports radio, but if Kyle Allen plays well again, I think I’m going to have to check it out. I want nothing more than for there to be a quarterback controversy with the Panthers. 

I think it’s time to tune into North Carolina sports radio because if there isn’t already talk of a quarterback controversy with the Panthers, there should be. The Panthers are 2-0 with Allen and 0-2 with Cam Newton. I don’t know how Newton expects to be the starter when he eventually returns, and I don’t know how he possibly could be the starter with the way Allen has played. If Allen continues to play well and the Panthers continue to win, there won’t be a debate. Newton will be on the bench.

HOUSTON -5 over Atlanta
If it always feels like the Texans should be better than they are, it’s because they should be. They have the quarterback and offensive and defensive personnel to be a playoff team each year, but somehow they continue to struggle to score points and win games. Scoring 10 points at home is something that should only happen with teams like the Redskins and Dolphins, certainly not with the Texans. That trend can’t continue at home against the Falcons.

Since the Falcons blew a 25-point, second-half lead in the Super Bowl, they have lost in the first round of the playoffs, gone 7-9 and are now 1-3. If that’s not enough to get a head coach fired who should have been fired the second that awful Super Bowl ended, I don’t know what will be enough.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -6.5 over Denver
The Dolphins turned in their best performance of the season in Week 4, a 20-point loss to the Chargers. After seeing how bad the Dolphins were in the first three weeks of the season, it was a letdown performance from the Chargers. It’s somewhat understandable since the Chargers never play well outside of the Pacific Time Zone, or California really, but only beating the Dolphins by 20 is a bit of a red flag. Luckily for the Chargers, they return to California and the Pacific Time Zone this week to face a second straight winless opponent in the Broncos.

Green Bay +3.5 over DALLAS
Here’s what I wrote last week about the Cowboys:

The Cowboys have yet to be tested after getting the awful defenses of the Giants and Redskins in Weeks 1 and 2 and then the Dolphins, who might be the worst team in the history of the NFL, in Week 3. The Cowboys are good, but they’re not undefeated, class-of-the-NFC good. Right now, they’re riding high, and probably thinking they’re the cream of the crop in the NFC, as their fans are, but this week in New Orleans should be a nice wake-up call for them after having the easiest opening schedule through Week 3 in the league.

The Cowboys might be able to pick up easy wins against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, but their schedule is too hard for them to bully their way into the playoffs. At some point they’re going to have to win against the league’s better teams to reach the postseason since nine of their 12 remaining games are against Green Bay, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Detroit, New England, Buffalo, Chicago and Los Angeles Rams. As a Giants fan, I hope they extend Dak Prescott before the losing gets too out of hand for the Cowboys. 

KANSAS CITY -11 over Indianapolis
I know each week in the NFL season is essentially a one-week season and you can’t put a lot of stock into what you see from week to week. But it’s hard for me as someone who watched most of Raiders-Colts last week to not think the Chiefs might be able to tell their punter to stay home on Sunday.

SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 over Cleveland
So far, the Monday Night Football games have been Texans-Saints, Broncos-Raiders, Browns-Jets, Bears-Redskins and Bengals-Steelers. Outside of Texans-Saints, it will be nice to once again have a Monday night game with two teams worth staying up for.

I was completely wrong about the Ravens last week against the Browns, as the Ravens turned out to be the same frauds who were humiliated in the playoffs last year. I wasn’t necessarily wrong about the Browns though, since I still believe they are a seven- or eight-win team. If I’m going to be right about that, they’re going to need to continue to be the .500 team they are, and that means losing to equal or better opponents.

Last week: 5-10
Season: 28-35

I know what’s happening with the Giants because I have lived it many times.

The Giants start 0-2 and then win a couple of games to reel me back in after I gave up on them and the season. Then they lose a couple of games and I feel like an idiot for getting tricked by them. Then they win a couple more games and I fall for their postseason chances once again, all while at the same time injuries in the NFC East and poor play from the rest of the conference has cleared a path for the Giants to potentially reach the playoffs despite being a mediocre-to-bad team.

I have lived that exact season in many Giants season and it’s happening again.

The Giants were blown out in Week 1 and embarrassed in Week 2 before being gifted a win in Week 3. Now they have a home game against a defense as bad as theirs and an offense that is nowhere near theirs, even without Saquon Barkley. There’s a very real chance the Giants could be and should be 2-2 after this week, and with the Eagles at 1-2 facing a tough matchup and the Cowboys going on the road to New Orleans, the Giants could be in second place and one game back in the division on Sunday.

But then the other shoe will drop, the way it always does. The Giants will lose to the Vikings and Patriots in Weeks 5 and 6 to remind everyone who these Giants really are. But then they will bounce back against the Cardinals at MetLife and possibly in Detroit as well, finishing up with the Cowboys and Jets before their bye.

I thought the Giants were going to leave me alone this season. I thought this season was going to be about Daniel Jones gaining valuable experience and the team being bad enough to get defensive help near the top of the 2020 draft. But now it’s definitely going to involve me trying to map out the remaining schedules for all NFC teams with postseason chances and trying to find a path for the Giants to play in January.

I can see this unfolding from a mile away. I want to be strong enough to not fall for it, but the Giants are the most persuasive bad major professional sports team there is.

(Home team in caps)

GREEN BAY -4 over Philadelphia
In order for the Giants to toy with my emotions and waste three-plus hours of 13 of the next 14 Sundays for me, they’re most likely going to need some help. Considering their defense, they’re definitely going to need some help. That means having other NFC East teams and other average NFC teams losing. The Eagles are one of those teams.

I’m sure the Eagles and their fans had Super Bowl aspirations entering this season and probably still do. If not for Alshon Jeffrey tipping that eventual interception up in the air in the divisional round, the Eagles might have returned to the Super Bowl and might have even won it. They were good enough to.

But now the Eagles are 1-2, after coming up short on their final drives against the Falcons and Lions in back-to-back weeks. Six of their next seven games are against Green Bay, Minnesota, Dallas, Buffalo, Chicago and New England. The easiest of those is on the road against the undefeated Bills. Outside of Week 5 against the Jets, it’s a gauntlet. The Eagles’ season isn’t in trouble yet, but it’s headed that way. Because I’m on my way to believing in the Giants again, I’m going to need the Eagles pushed out of the way.

New England -7 over BUFFALO
For last week’s 23-point line in the Patriots-Jets game, I wrote:

This line could be 35 and I still couldn’t take the Jets. I get that it’s ridiculously high and if the Jets were to ever find the end zone even once it might complicate things since their defense is solid, but I don’t think they’re going to find the end zone on offense. Maybe on defense or special teams, but that can’t be counted on.

The Jets’ special teams and defense did both find the end zone to impact the line and cover for the Jets, but I would still give the 23 points every time.

The Bills might have a strong defense and an improved offense, but they’re still the Bills, and they’re still playing the Patriots. I will be rooting for the Bills to win, but I certainly can’t pick them to cover here.

Tennessee +4 over ATLANTA
The Titans have let me down after their impressive Week 1 win in Cleveland. Then again, the Browns are nowhere near as good as people thought they would be because they added Odell Beckham, and the Titans look to be the same 7-9 or 8-8 team they usually are. The Titans can turn their season around with winnable games the next three weeks, starting in Atlanta this week. The Falcons are also trying to save their season, but as always, I will be rooting against them not to.

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cleveland
The Ravens are the real deal. The Browns aren’t. I laughed at those who picked the Browns to go to the AFC Championship and laughed harder at those who picked them go to the Super Bowl. Even picking the Browns to be a playoff team should have warranted some laughs with the way they have looked through three weeks.

If 10 wins gets you a playoff berth, and the Browns have one win, it’s hard to find where they are going to get nine more wins in 13 games. They do have Cincinnati and Pittsburgh twice and Miami once, but that would only get them to six. They would still need three more wins from a schedule which includes Baltimore twice, San Francisco, Seattle, New England, Buffalo and not necessarily easy matchups on the road at Denver and Arizona.

The Browns might have Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb, but everything about them says they’re a seven- or eight-win team.

The Ravens, on the other hand, are a playoff team and the likely NFC North champion. For now, they don’t appear to be a real threat to the Patriots or Chiefs for the AFC, but they’re levels above the Browns.

Kansas City -6.5 over DETROIT
Nothing sums up the chaotic nature of football more than the Lions’ first three games.

In Week 1, they blew an 18-point fourth-quarter lead to a rookie head coach/quarterback combination and eventually tied. In Week 2, they won a defensive matchup against the much-better-on-paper Chargers. In Week 3, they went to Philadelphia and held off the Eagles for a three-point win thanks to a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown and a pair of recovered fumbles.

Anyone who has watched the Lions this season would find it absurd that anyone would ever wager money on football. But to that I say, the unlikely outcomes and unpredictable results like the three Lions games have had is exactly why gambling on football is so fun.

When it comes to picking Kansas City games, if I’m going to go against them, I’m going to need at least a touchdown, and most likely more. 

HOUSTON -4.5 over Carolina
Panthers fans have to feel more confident with Kyle Allen as their starting quarterback than with Cam Newton, right? In his second career start, and really first actual start since the Week 17 game against New Orleans last season was a formality game for both in advance of the postseason, he was outstanding. Allen threw four touchdown passes and looked like something Newton hasn’t in a long time.

Newton won’t play again this week and Allen will start. I have never listened to North Carolina sports radio, but if Allen plays well again, I think I’m going to have to check it out. I want nothing more than for there to be a quarterback controversy with the Panthers. 

INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 over Oakland
I like this Colts team. They have a solid defense and possibly the best offensive line in the league, and when you have that combination, wins will follow, no matter if your quarterback is Andrew Luck or Jacoby Brissett. The Colts have followed up their season-opening overtime loss at the Chargers with impressive wins at Tennessee and over Atlanta. The Colts were a playoff team with Luck last season and I think they are again without him this season. The Raiders shouldn’t be getting anything less than a touchdown against playoff teams.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -15.5 over Miami
Normally, I don’t take the Chargers when they have to leave California and the Pacific Time Zone, but exceptions have to be made when it comes to games involving the 2019 Dolphins.

I don’t trust the Chargers to cover in this game and it wouldn’t surprise me if this ends up as an unbelievable upset. But there’s just no way I can take the Dolphins, who have scored 16 points total in three games to cover any sort of spread, especially when they are losing on average by 39 points.

NEW YORK GIANTS -2.5 over Washington
I know what’s happening here because I have lived it many times. The Giants start 0-2 and then win a couple of games to reel back in all of their fans who gave up on them and the season. Then they lose a couple more games and those fans who were reeled back in feel like idiots. Then they win a couple more games and those idiots are once again tricked into believing because injuries in the NFC East and poor play from the rest of the conference has cleared a path for the Giants to potentially reach the postseason despite being a mediocre-to-bad team. It’s happening again.

The Giants were blown out in Week 1 and embarrassed in Week 2 before being gifted a win in Week 3. Now they have a home game against a defense as bad as theirs and an offense that is nowhere near theirs, even without Saquon Barkley. There’s a very real chance the Giants could be and should be 2-2 after Sunday. And with the Eagles at 1-2 facing a tough matchup and the Cowboys going on the road to New Orleans, the Giants could be in second place and one game back in the division.

But then the other shoe will drop, the way it always does. The Giants will lose to the Vikings and Patriots the next two weeks to remind everyone who these Giants really are. But then they will bounce back against the Cardinals at MetLife and possibly in Detroit as well, finishing up with the Cowboys and Jets before their bye.

I can see this unfolding from a mile away. I want to be strong enough to not fall for it, but the Giants are the most persuasive bad major professional sports team there is.

ARIZONA +5 over Seattle
The Seahawks beat the now-winless Bengals by one point at home then beat the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers by two points on the road and then lost to the Drew Brees-less Saints. The Seahawks aren’t any good, but that’s what happens when most of your salary cap is tied up to your quarterback. Everyone needs to stop thinking of the Seahawks as the defense-led team which won the Super Bowl, and start thinking of them as a team that’s been average since they built their roster around Russell Wilson.

LOS ANGELES RAMS -9.5 over Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers lost to the Giants. When you lose to the Giants, you should be getting no less than double-digit points the following week, especially when you have to fly across the country to play the defending NFC champions.

Minnesota +2 over CHICAGO
This game should be played the exact same by each team: run-first offense combined with great defense. The Vikings and the Bears are similarly built and both led by untrustworthy quarterbacks. The Vikings have more playmakers on offense, while the Bears have more on defense. It’s about as even of a matchup as you could ask for.

The Vikings giving up the usual third point as a road team in a divisional matchup says a lot, and as long as Kirk Cousins doesn’t run the game, the Vikings should win. But thinking Cousins won’t ruin a game is like thinking Mitch Trubisky won’t ruin a game. I will probably regret this pick the first time Cousins drops back against the Bears’ pass rush.

Jacksonville +3 over DENVER
Gardner Minshew got his first career win and the Jaguars got their first win of the season, and now they both have a 10-day layoff to get Minshew more acclimated as the starting quarterback. With Nick Foles, I have to think the Jaguars’ Week 1 loss to Kansas City is much closer and that they score more than 12 points and probably win in Week 2 against Houston. But at 1-2, their season is still alive, and with their defense, they will have a chance each week, even without Foles. It’s never easy going on the road to Denver, but it’s a little easier going against this year’s underwhelming Broncos’ offense.

NEW ORLEANS +2.5 over Dallas
After waxing poetic about Teddy Bridgewater in last week’s picks, he went out and led the Saints to a win on the road in Seattle, where it used to be impossible for road teams to win. Bridgewater threw two touchdown passes and didn’t turn the ball over, playing the exact way he did when he led the Vikings to the playoffs in 2015.

The Cowboys have yet to be tested after getting the awful defenses of the Giants and Redskins in Weeks 1 and 2 and then the Dolphins, who might be the worst team in the history of the NFL, in Week 3. The Cowboys are good, but they’re not undefeated, class-of-the-NFC good. Right now, they’re riding high, and probably thinking they’re the cream of the crop in the NFC, as their fans are, but this week in New Orleans should be a nice wake-up call for them after having the easiest opening schedule through Week 3 in the league.

Cincinnati +4 over PITTSBURGH
Nothing says Monday Night Football like two 0-3 teams battling to be the less embarrassing franchise.

Last week: 9-7
Season: 23-25

I originally planned on going to Tampa this coming weekend to see the Giants play the Buccaneers on Sunday and then see the Yankees play the Rays during the week. But between the Giants being the worst team in the NFC and the Yankees preparing to use spring training lineups for the final two weeks of the season, it didn’t make sense to go all the way to Florida to watch my teams play meaningless games.

Then Wednesday happened and Pat Shurmur announced Daniel Jones as this week’s starting quarterback, effectively ending Eli Manning’s career. I don’t think Manning is going to be traded, and I don’t know that he would want to be, and he’s certainly not coming back next season, so Sunday’s loss was probably the last time we ever see Manning play for the Giants, barring an injury to Jones or meaningless garbage-time minutes between now and Week 17. Had I kept my trip to Tampa, I would have gotten to see the start of the Jones era and the first time a quarterback other than Manning had a future with the team in nearly 15 years.

Unfortunately, this is the right move for the Giants. They aren’t competitive and aren’t going to reach the postseason this year. I don’t know when any Giants fan can expect them to reach the postseason again. This season now has to be about the future, which it was always going to be about, no matter how much BS ownership, Dave Gettleman or Pat Shurmur spewed to the media in the offseason. It’s why the Giants should have either moved on from Manning before the draft, or committed to Manning, and used all of their draft picks to help the team win now. Instead, they tried to do a little bit of both and it’s led to an offense without any healthy and capable wide receivers, and a defense lacking a pass, secondary and the basic fundamentals of trying to prevent the other team from scoring.

The moment the Giants drafted Jones, Gettleman and Shurmur’s employment timer with the Giants began, and now that he’s actually going to play and has a potential 14 games to showcase his abilities in, that employment timer is going to pick up its pace. The general manager and head coach are tied to the success or failure of Jones, as is the entire organization, and if he proves to be an NFL quarterback over the next 15 weeks, they will keep their jobs. If he doesn’t, another duo, hopefully a better duo, will get to pick the future of the team at the 2020 draft.

It’s going to take the rest of the season to properly evaluate Jones as a potential franchise quarterback and determine whether or not the current front office made the right decision or if they wasted the sixth overall pick and an entire season, and unnecessarily ended the career of the best quarterback in franchise history. The Giants’ future begins on Sunday in Tampa. At least there’s a reason to watch for the rest of the season.

***

Back-to-back 7-9 weeks to start the season isn’t great from a record standpoint, but is good enough to have survived the first weeks of the season and all of the quarterback injuries to stay afloat. Week 3 is a chance to get above .500 and stay above .500.

(Home team in caps)

JACKSONVILLE +2 over Tennessee
It’s hard to put a lot of faith into Gardner Minishew, but the replacement for Nick Foles has been better than expected after taking over early in Week 1 and playing a full game in Week 2. It hasn’t translated into wins, as the Jaguars are 0-2, but at least the Jaguars have a serviceable option at quarterback and can at least expect to be competitive, unlike say, the Jets.

I expected big things out of the Titans this season, and after their Week 1 win over the Browns, I felt great about them. But then they laid an egg in their home opener in an expected low-scoring AFC South game, and I saw the usual .500-esque offense from the Titans, led by Marcus Mariota’s blah game.

I had a lot of fun rooting for, picking for and winning money on the Jaguars in their run to the AFC Championship Game a couple years ago, and I thought I was going to have similar fun this season with Foles as their quarterback and one of the league’s best defenses. That idea hasn’t gone according to plan, but there’s still time for it to happen, if the Jaguars can win this week. If not, their season’s over at 0-3.

NEW ENGLAND -23 over New York Jets
I love the college line the Jets are getting this week and the Dolphins got last week and will continue to get.

If Sam Darnold had played on Monday night, the Jets would have won. The Browns were so underwhelming and Baker Mayfield looked so bad that had the Jets had even just a bad quarterback and not two awful options, they might have won. Instead, the Jets watched Trevor Siemian suffer a season-ending injury and then watched Luke Falk run a game plan in which nearly every pass was thrown behind the line of scrimmage en route to their loss.

This line could be 35 and I still couldn’t take the Jets. I get that it’s ridiculously high and if the Jets were to ever find the end zone even once it might complicate things since their defense is solid, but I don’t think they’re going to find the end zone on offense. Maybe on defense or special teams, but that can’t be counted on.

Cincinnati +6 over BUFFALO
What a gift the Bills received from the NFL getting scheduled to open the season against two bad teams in the Jets and Giants on the road, in the same state, a short plane ride away to MetLife. The Bills are 2-0 as a result of getting to play against the shaky Jets and defenseless Giants and have already played 25 percent of their road schedule. Now with home games against Cincinnati and Miami within the next month, there’s a good chance the Bills could be at 5-3 or even 4-3 a month from now.

Except these are the Bills we’re talking about. If there’s a possibility to screw something up, they will screw it up. Having a Week 3 home game and their home opener against the Bengals seems like it can be counted as a W, but again, these are the Bills. The Bills were fortunate to play their first two games against teams which will most likely get to draft in the first five picks in 2020.

The Bengals did get blown out at by San Francisco last week, but held their own in Seattle the week before. I don’t think the Bengals are good or are going to necessarily win in Buffalo, but it’s hard to believe the Bills could be giving six points to any team, and it’s even harder to believe they will cover.

DALLAS -21.5 over Miami
When the Dolphins start running plays on their opponent’s side of the field, I will start considering taking them to cover the massive spreads for their games, which are only going to grow in size as the season goes on. I don’t think Josh Rosen is going to get the chance he spoke about at the 2018 draft to make all the teams that passed on him regret passing on him.

GREEN BAY -8 over Denver
This game will be used in teasers more than any other game in Week 3. That normally would be enough to scare me into taking the points, but not after watching Denver play at Oakland in Week 1.

INDIANAPOLIS -1.5 over Atlanta
It’s possible the Jacoby Brissett Colts are just as good as the Andrew Luck Colts. They have played well in the first two weeks of the season and look as good as they did at the end of last year before losing to the Texans in a weird game in the postseason.

I know what the Falcons are and have made my reasons for continuing to pick against them and their head coach clear in previous picks blogs. I’m not about to go against my principles, especially when the Falcons have to go on the road and face a better, more well-rounded team.

KANSAS CITY -6.5 over Baltimore
I need at least a touchdown to fall back on if I’m going to pick against the Chiefs.

MINNESOTA -9 over Oakland
Last week, in reference to their successful Week 1 game plan, in which the Vikings only let Kirk Cousins throw the ball 10 times, I wrote: If the Vikings stick to their plan and don’t allow Cousins to ruin the game, they will be 2-0 and in first place in the NFC North. If they go back to what made them unsuccessful last year, they will be unsuccessful again. Well, Cousins threw the ball 32 times in Week 2, and what do you know, he threw two interceptions, fumbled the ball twice and lost one of the fumbles.

It’s impressive the Vikings only lost by five with the way Cousins played, and had anyone other than Kirk Cousins as their quarterback, they would be 2-0 this season. Had anyone other than Cousins been their quarterback last season, they probably would have won the NFC North and returned to the NFC Championship Game too. But the Vikings are stuck with Cousins, who is bad as it gets at throwing accurate passes and maintaining possession, and it’s hard to envision them going anywhere as long as he’s on the team.

Fortunately for the Vikings, they get the Raiders at home this week in what should be a rout. If it’s not, that should tell you all you need to know about this team’s chances with Cousins, as if there hasn’t been enough to tell you all you need to know since the start of last season.

PHILADELPHIA -6.5 over Detroit
The Eagles are dangerously close to being 0-2, but I guess most teams in the NFL are always dangerously close to having a completely opposite record. I know this because I’m a Giants fan who has watched them lose many games in recent years decided by three points or less and most games by seven points or less. At some point, the Eagles are going to look like a team expected to win the NFC East and compete for a second championship in three years. What better time to look like this team than at home agains the Lions.

ARIZONA 0 over Carolina
I was upset with myself for picking the Panthers on Thursday Night Football in Week 2 the second the Panthers offense took the field. The Panthers have one playmaker in their entire offense in Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers run nearly every single play through him. I have no idea how he’s going to be able to hold up for a lengthy career with the way he’s used in Carolina, but for now, the Panthers have no choice.

Cam Newton has drastically regressed since his 2015 MVP season and the only way the Panthers can be successful is by handing the ball off to McCaffrey or by throwing him a two- or-three-yard pass and hoping he can gain significant yards after the catch. It’s an easy offense and strategy to prepare for, and even the rookie-led Cardinals will be able to handle it.

TAMPA BAY -6.5 over New York Giants
It doesn’t matter that Jameis Winston isn’t good because it doesn’t matter which quarterback plays against the Giants’ defense, they are going to get lit up. That the Giants are going on the road against a Bruce Arians offense in what will be the first start for Daniel Jones makes this a rather easy pick for me. A 16-year veteran could barely function without any NFL-worthy receivers. I’m sure a rookie debut in his NFL debut will do much better.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -3.5 over Houston
The Chargers left the Pacific Time Zone, and unsurprisingly, they lost. A return home this week should return the real Chargers, who can only really be trusted in games played in California.

New Orleans +4 over SEATTLE
Once upon a time, Teddy Bridgewater was the starting quarterback of the Vikings and led them to what should have been a postseason win over the Seahawks, if not for a Blair Walsh 27-yard field-goal attempt.

Since Bridgewater’s career-altering knee injury with the Vikings, the Vikings have traded away a first-round draft pick for Sam Bradford, only to have a 5-0 season end at 8-8, and they have turned to Case Keenum, who led them to within a win of the Super Bowl, only to move on from Keenum to give a guaranteed $84 million to Kirk Cousins, who is at best as good as Keenum.

The Vikings could have kept Bridgewater following his knee injury and eaten the money they would have been forced to pay him while he was injured and it would have been a whole lot less than the money they guaranteed to Cousins. Had Bridgewater not been able to make a comeback from his injury, the team could have stayed with Keenum as quarterback. They would have retained the first-rounder they gave away for Bradford and would have had a lot more salary-cap space available without Cousins. Since Bridgewater did make a comeback, he would be the quarterback, the offensive and defensive lines would have more money invested in them, and the Vikings would be better than they are currently and would have been better than they were last year as well.

I don’t like the Saints, but I love Bridgewater, and I’m rooting for him to make the Vikings’ front office continue to look foolish.

SAN FRANCISCO -6 over Pittsburgh
The Steelers are headed toward a long, loss-filled season. The lines for their games are only going to grow in size as the season progresses. Get in on going against the Steelers before the lines get too high.

Los Angeles Rams -3 over CLEVELAND
I picked against the Browns last week before it was announced the Jets would start Siemian. Unfortunately, the Jets were essentially quarterback-less on Monday night and gave away a winnable game. But my need for the Browns to lose and be losers with Odell Beckham on the team still exists.

Chicago -4 over WASHINGTON
The Bears went into this season with Super Bowl aspirations. After two weeks, they don’t look like a playoff team, forget a championship contender. I don’t know how the Bears or Bears fan can believe in Mitch Trubisky, or how they can think they will ever win it all with him. Maybe Trubisky will greatly improve, and maybe the first weeks of the season will be looked back on as anomaly for this Bears season, but scoring three points at home in Week 1 and needing a time-expiring field goal to the beat the Broncos in Week 2 isn’t exactly promising.

I still believe in the Bears, because of their defense and because of their running game, but Week 3 is about as must-win as it gets with Minnesota (twice), New Orleans, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia, Los Angeles Rams, Dallas, Green Bay and Kansas City on their schedule.

The Bears need a big win at Washington.

Last week: 7-9
Season: 14-18