Giants – Page 26 – Keefe To The City

Sep 13, 2013

Giants-Broncos Means Manning Bowl III

The Broncos are in town for Manning Bowl III and that calls for an email exchange with Ian Henson of Mile High Report.

Peyton Manning might very well be the best regular-season quarterback in the history of the NFL. But when it comes to the postseason, Peyton is the second-best quarterback in his family. Eli Manning can always use the second Super Bowl ring to quiet his critics and his brother and the fact that he beat Tom Brady (which is something Peyton has had a lot of trouble doing) for both of his Super Bowls and Super Bowl MVPs. But when it comes to the direct battle of Manning brother supremacy, Eli falls short with an 0-2 record in the Manning Bowl (2006 and 2010). On Sunday, however, Eli has a chance to close the gap a little more on which Manning is the best Manning if he can upset his brother and the Broncos at MetLife Stadium.

Ian Henson of Mile High Report joined me for an email exchange with the Broncos in town for Manning Bowl III this weekend to talk about how confident Broncos fans are, whether or not they trust Peyton in the playoffs and what will happen this Sunday in East Rutherford.

Keefe: The last time the Giants played the Broncos it ruined Thanksgiving. The Giants opened the 2009 season winning five straight games and then immediately lost four games. They came off their bye to beat the Falcons in overtime in Week 11 and then made the trip to the Denver for Thanksgiving night. Broncos 26, Giants 6.

Eli Manning threw for 230 yards and Brandon Jacobs and D.J. Ware each ran for 27 yards and the Broncos’ 16-0 halftime lead was too much to overcome.

After that game the Giants lost three of their final five games and gave up 166 points combined in those five games, finishing the season 8-8.

This time the Broncos have a chance to put the Giants’ season on life alert in Week 2. After this game, the Giants go on the road to face the Panthers, who will be looking for revenge from their Week 2 embarrassment against the Giants last year and then to Kansas City to face Andy Reid, who knows the Giants better than any coach in the league, and his new team.

With the Yankees battling for their wild-card lives I was looking forward to Giants and football season, but is it possible that it might be in serious trouble on Sept. 15? What’s it like to have your team coming off the most impressive Week 1 win in the league in which you dismantled the Super Bowl champions and your quarterback tied a single-game touchdown record?

Henson: Up until 2011, in the Season of Tebow, I had never been to a Denver Broncos game in which they had lost (and I have been to a lot of games). The last time the Broncos played the New York Giants in Denver, I was there. My phone blew up after the Josh McDaniels, “I just want to win a f—in’ game!” I had no idea what people were talking about, they got it from the NFL Network, I obviously couldn’t hear McDaniels from where I was sitting. I never considered traveling to be such a big factor when I was younger, but I know from living in New York and Denver, that the flight is just about as long as it is from New York to Los Angeles. Brutal for a flight in which you’re taking off and landing in the same country.

I have to confess, I was 18 when I moved to New York City, I was too young to get into any bars, thus forced to watch games wherever I could. That usually meant at home, this is how I developed a kinship with the Giants, they were always on and unable to see Broncos games in 2001 in a bar made me develop an interest. I will cheer for the Giants in any game that does not involve the Broncos.

The last time Denver and New York met, the Broncos had traded Jay Cutler and a fifth-round pick to the Chicago Bears for two first-round draft picks, a third round and Kyle Orton. Orton had an atrocious preseason and had Denver fans begging for him to be benched in favor of Chris Simms. Fans hated McDaniels from the start; then the season started and the Broncos under McDaniels went 6-0 (including an overtime victory in which McDaniels beat his old coach Bill Belichick), the team went on to lose their next four games and in the meantime Orton got injured. Thanksgiving 2009, the Giants and Broncos game happened.

Orton’s first game back, the team was still in the playoff hunt, in a very weak AFC West. The Broncos went on to win against the Giants and the next week they whooped the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos travled to Indianapolis and Peyton Manning squashed what was left of Denver, even a record day by Brandon Marshall breaking Terrell Owens’ single-game catch record with 21 for 200 yards and two touchdowns did nothing. The Broncos picked off Manning three times, but Orton could not capitalize and in Week 14 the Colts had already secured home field advantage for the playoffs. Manning was always a Bronco killer, he has yet to prove that he doesn’t remain a Bronco killer.

In 2012, the Broncos were one of the best teams in the league, the Ravens weren’t. Denver easily handled a neutered Baltimore team in the regular season. The playoffs were an entirely different animal though, two overtimes later, the Ravens move on and the Broncos are sent back home. Tebow fans were commenting how he had gotten the Broncos that far, what was the point of Peyton Manning? Denver did not game plan for a single game in the preseason this year and as far as I can tell, started running scout team preparing for the Baltimore game in Week 2 or Week 3 of the preseason. Baltimore had no choice, no one could have guessed that Manning would throw seven touchdowns, but the only doubt anyone had was whether or not Denver could be over or under on the point spread.

It isn’t homerism to say that Denver is really good this season, that Baltimore game was without Von Miller and without Champ Bailey. The Broncos have replaced their running game with Wes Welker and Julius Thomas is scary good if he can stay healthy. Even Denver’s fourth string receiver caught a touchdown. It’s good for the week to be on top, but the Giants have ruined a previous Broncos perfect season before. In 1998, Denver was 13-0, came to Giants stadium and lost 16-20. New York killed the Broncos undefeated season and it was by less than a touchdown (a trend the Giants would be so famous for in 2007).

During our podcast, we neglected to mention that Eli has never beat Peyton. I don’t know how much that is coming up in New York, but as we are both aware, this may be the last chance that he gets. Peyton’s not likely to still be playing in three seasons when the AFC West and the NFC East meet again. I think that amateurs may point to the Giants shaky running game, but Denver shut down Ray Rice in week one. New York’s running game is a trap basically, Pro Football Focus pointed out that both Champ Bailey and Chris Harris were top 15 corners in the NFL last season, but if Bailey is healthy, it would probably be a better thing for the Giants. Harris will be on Victor Cruz, Harris spent the entire preseason and training camp pairing with Wes Welker and you have Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie back in his natural position and matched up once again with Hakeem Nicks. This is why I say Bailey is the liability. I think Denver is much better off with Tony Carter on Reuben Randle than Champ on Randle.

I see no way that Denver runs the ball though and if the game is a shootout they probably wouldn’t want to anyway.

Keefe: We neglected to mention that Eli has never beaten Peyton because who wants to bring up that sore subject?!?! However, the Giants could gave beaten the Colts and therefore Eli would have beaten Peyton if not for the phantom pass interference call in the 2006 game that left Al Michaels and John Madden in shock on the broadcast. So maybe it would be 1-1 if not for the call that should have never been called, but it’s not and Peyton holds the 2-0 advantage.

Eli does the hold advantage when it comes to championships, which is all that really matters, isn’t it? But you could make the case that if not for Pierre Garcon’s terrible drop against the Saints in the Super Bowl and the onside kick against the Colts to open the second half, Peyton never would have been set up to throw a game-clinching interception and he would be 2-0 in Super Bowls as well.

But since this has turned into an Eli-Peyton discussion, for the moment, and if championships are all that matters (and they are, especially for fans), then how do you feel about the Broncos chances’ this season? You saw what Peyton can do firsthand in the regular season last year and in one regular-season game this year, but you also saw what he could do in the postseason when he seems to come up short in the big spot (even if he isn’t responsible for the defensive coverage on Jacoby Jones). Knowing how good the Broncos are and how good Peyton is and can be and how weak the AFC West and AFC are in 2013, are the Broncos going to be there in the end, barring any devastating injuries?

Henson: I will point out that I hated Peyton Manning as a Broncos fan for every single season of his career up until 2012. I remember the game that you are talking about, but much like the Giants last two Super Bowls, it could have gone either way. Eli makes the play when it counts, twice now and probably once or twice more before he is finished with his career. The same could be said for Peyton in his Super Bowl loss, one miss throw to Tracy Porter and they lose, last season in the playoffs he tosses an interception to Corey Graham to end the first overtime. Three plays later, the game is over. Eli doesn’t do that so much.

The Broncos handled the Ravens and I don’t think that the Ravens are a bad team, I thought that the Cincinnati Bengals would take the AFC North, but they just got toppled by the Chicago Bears. I think that Baltimore and Denver see each other again in the post season. The parallels between 2012 and 1996 for Denver are too many, 1997 of course was the year the 0-4 (in Super Bowls) Broncos finally made it 1-4. I think this season, even without Peyton Denver can make a playoff run. People were quick to point out that the Broncos were on their third center and without Von Miller, but Denver just extended Manny Ramirez for two more seasons and Shaun Phillips (Von’s backup) has 2.5 sacks and is currently second in the NFL. Their depth is scary and the AFC is in shambles right now. Houston almost lost to San Diego, the Raiders nearly handed to to the Colts, New England? Name a receiver on the Patriots that is healthy and not named Edelman…

What is going to be interesting to me is watching Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs vs. the NFC East. The Chiefs are returning 11 Pro Bowlers from last season, Reid, as much as people may dislike him in the NFC East, is a great coach. Give him Alex Smith, who doesn’t often make mistakes, Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe … Pack that in with the fact that he’s been playing two games against every team in your division outside of his own team and man … That’s going to be fun entertainment. The AFC West may actually be the reason that the Giants win the NFC East this season. No one thinks the AFC West is worth anything, but look at Week One and how they handled themselves. I don’t know how long Terrelle Pryor will be a thing, but Mike McCoy won a playoff game with Tim Tebow, I think that he will be alright with Philip Rivers.

Speaking of Rivers, how do Giants fans feel about him?

Keefe: I have no reason to dislike Philip Rivers for any reason other than that he would have been the Giants quarterback, which I guess is enough of a reason to dislike him when you look at what he has accomplished in his carer compared to Eli Manning. It’s hard to justify not liking someone who has never really affected your team other than they would have been your franchise quarterback if things unfolded differently. It’s not like he’s David Ortiz or the baseball Manny Ramirez or Martin Brodeur or Tony Romo or Donovan McNabb or someone that has given you on-the-field reasons to not like them. I don’t like Rivers because had Archie Manning not made sure the Chargers didn’t draft Eli, he would have been a Giant. (It seems pretty stupid when you actually write it out.)

You talked about how the AFC West isn’t as bad as everyone might have thought before the season, but when I look at it I just see early-season hype storylines in Andy Reid succeeding in Kansas City, Terrelle Pryor being the much-needed franchise quarterback in Oakland and San Diego being revitalized and nearly knocking off Houston. I say “hype storylines” because these seem to be more for talking head shows rather than for real life. and it wouldn’t surprise me if all three of those teams were afterthoughts by the middle of October. (Though I’m sure it wouldn’t surprise you either.) That means the Broncos are set up to most likely run the table in division matchups and then would just need to go something like 4-6 in their other 10 games to reach the postseason and they’re already 1-0, so 3-6 now. I guess I answered my own question from earlier if the Broncos will be there in the end this year.

But there has to be something that worries you about the Broncos, isn’t there? Tell me there’s something you’re worried about because when it comes to the Giants I’m worried about just about everything. But I guess that’s Giants football no matter what year it is.

Henson: I am not a big fan and was even less of a fan of Brock Osweiler last season. Osweiler played for Dennis Erickson at Arizona State, Erickson when 6-6 and for fear of losing draft position to a new head coach’s offense Osweiler entered the draft in 2012. The Denver Broncos traded out of the Dont’a Hightower pick (Pats), then again out of the Doug Martin pick (Buccaneeers), back into the second round and picked up Derek Wolfe and Brock Osweiler. The Wolfe pick doesn’t bother me so much and may pan out to be a really good pick, but the Osweiler pick still can get me steamed. In picking up Osweiler, the Broncos missed on so many players that they had met with, scouted and knew to be good players. Denver wins the Baltimore playoff game with Doug Martin as their running back.

It doesn’t end there though, Janoris Jenkins, Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David, Rueben Randle, Coby Fleener, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins! Every one of those players could have been picked up instead of Osweiler and instead, they have Osweiler. Now, there was some PR material given out around draft time to attempt to smooth over Broncos fans and let them know that Osweiler would have been a first-round draft pick in 2013, but the Broncos got him in the second round in 2012. So, I hated the pick, more so than the player, but Osweiler looked okay in the preseason and I have no doubt that with Denver’s very easy schedule, he could win eight, nine games if the worse were to happen.

Everything that I was afraid of happened. Ryan Clady who covers Manning’s blindside is not 100 percent, Ramirez at center is really the 32nd worst starting center in the league, the running game sucks, Von Miller is out six games, Champ Bailey is probably out at least four games, Elvis Dumervil on the Ravens, Eric Decker sucking (three catches and a fumble) … I’ve covered a situation in which Manning is gone. The team just really isn’t reliant on who the players are for whatever reason. Look back at Week 1, the Broncos gave up 21 points on mistakes made by special teams and defense (Danny Trevathan’s one yard fumble celebration cost Denver seven points, turned into seven for the Ravens and Wes Welker’s punt return drop inside of the five-yard line). Jack Del Rio and John Fox have worked together two season (their first was the year Carolina went to the Super Bowl, Del Rio left to coach the Jaguars after that), both seasons their defense has been ranked second in the NFL. This is their third season, the team would be well off with basically anyone at quarterback. Who couldn’t throw to Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas? Now you throw Peyton into that mix and that’s 30-40 points a game, with a Top 10 NFL defense on the other side and one of the games best punt returners/kick returners.

I am really not this cocky about that team and I am sorry for coming off that way, I just got out of a Twitter conversation in which someone (I assume a 49ers fan) was letting me know that Colin Kaepernick is better than Peyton Manning. It’s hard to convince any Broncos fan that any new quarterback is anything other than a flavor of the day. We have witnessed Tim Tebow, through multiple seasons and see that two years later he is out of the NFL. That wasn’t Tebow winning as much as it was Denver’s defense and special teams coming through when it was clutch. Cue the 49ers, I’d like to say the Redskins too, but Mike Shanahan is an offensive genius and I think this year the Panthers could fit back into that mold. Ron Rivera has them with a stout defense again and Cam Newton just needs to air it out three to four times a game.

If the Giants are able to put together a running game, they can expose the Broncos up the middle probably. Wesley Woodyard (Denver’s middle linebacker) has just started practicing today (Thursday) and although he is good, he’s playing mike for the first time in his career and not at 100 percent. Denver would need to bring up strong safety Duke Ihenacho to assist and at that point Eli’s got the deep center over the top with only Rahim Moore to beat.

Another thing is the offensive play count, there has been much said about Philadelphia’s offensive play count, but Denver can demolish that. In the Ravens game, the Broncos only had 68 plays the whole game and exactly half of those came in the first half. In the third week of preseason, Manning had 33 plays in the first quarter and 23 plays in the second quarter (56 plays in one half). Philly had 77 in their entire game Monday night. I guess for the record in 2012, the average was 64 offensive plays per game. There are things in the Broncos arsenal that I don’t think that we will see until deep into the season, but putting up with a play count like that is going to be nearly impossible for any defense to deal with for long at 5,280 feet above sea level.

Then again, that whole thing is super hyped up. Patriots put up 94 offensive snaps in Week 1 and they damn near lost to the Buffalo Bills.

I see that you guys just put Dan Conner on season ending injured reserve, I am sure that doesn’t even really effect you though. You guys are so strong in your front seven.

Keefe: Another day, another devastating injury for the Giants. (And another devastating injury for the Yankees too as Brett Gardner hurt his left oblique striking out tonight and might be done for the season.)

Offensive play counts seem to the cool thing to care about and keep track of in the NFL now since it supposedly gives you a better chance to win. But like you said the Patriots nearly lost to the Bills (the Bills!) even with their high play total.

You mention the Giants running game possibly exposing the Broncos defense, but that would mean the Giants would have to have a running game, which they may not if Wilson is bad or fumbles again or if Da’Rel Scott plays or if Brandon Jacobs plays.

There is a lot at stake in this game. For the Giants, they need to bounce back off their six-turnover performance in Week 1 and avoid going 0-2. For the Broncos, they need to continue to prove they are the best team in the league and that Week 1 wasn’t just them taking advantage of a team rebuilding off a Super Bowl. And for Eli and Peyton it’s obviously much deeper than both of those things when it’s come to their personal rivalry, their family, their legacies and the perception of both.

It’s been almost four years since the two teams met and unless they meet in the Super Bowl between now and 2017, it will be another four until they meet again. What do you expect to happen on Sunday this time around in the Giants-Broncos meeting and the Manning Bowl?

Henson: Champ Bailey has just been ruled out for the Giants game on Sunday by John Fox. I don’t think that we were really expecting him anyway for this game and truthfully, no one is positive whether or not Bailey is needed at this point. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was targeted once in Week One, Joe Flacco sees Chris Harris laughing his ass off in Flacco’s nightmares. Tony Carter is one of the fastest players in the NFL and plays corner like he is a computer character on Madden who has been set to 99 everything and runs fundamentals perfectly.

Good news for New York is that Prince Amukamara is likely to play, I assume he takes Demaryius Thomas? And Eric Decker has already declared that he would have a better game, privately to Peyton Manning (Manning gives the offense drop statistics in their lockers after the game with that player’s name highlighted, Decker had four and a fumble last week).

Last season, Dennis Allen left the Denver Broncos as their defensive coordinator and took over the head coaching job for the Oakland Raiders. During Week 14, Allen’s Father passed away. The Broncos could have easily stomped on the Raiders, but instead turned in an incredibly conservative game and opted for field goals instead of touchdowns on four different scoring opportunities. Peyton threw for one touchdown and Knowshon Moreno ran for one off of a defensive fumble recover that ended on the Raiders’ two-yard line.

I say that story, to say this. I don’t think that anyone is going to run away with this game, if it gets to the point where Denver can offer a beat down, they won’t. The Giants are not the Baltimore Ravens. If the Giants are the ones to shift into fifth gear early, then of course Denver will attempt to keep up, but the Broncos won’t pile it on in New York. Fox used to coach there, Eli is Peyton’s brother and it’s an NFC vs. AFC game. What I do expect is for the Giants to get a turnover or two, because as bad as New Yorkers perceive David Wilson to be at fumbling, Ronnie Hillman is worse, off the top of my head, I think that he fumbled four times in the preseason, five, but one wasn’t given a red flag by the opposing coach like it should have.

Denver’s defense focuses on shutting down the opposing teams best player, so Victor Cruz may not have the greatest game, but Eli will have a ton of yards. Second-year undrafted linebacker Danny Trevathan (the one who fumbled the ball at the one-yard line, instead of scoring last week) has shut down nearly every tight end, including Jimmy Graham dating back to last season.

So, my prediction would be Broncos by two scores, unless they decide to feature Ronnie Hillman for some reason. Who covers Wes Welker? Mark Herzlich? Aaron Ross? Denver uses Welker as their ground game, a six-yard pass to Welker is just as good as a six yard run by Moreno, Montee Ball or Hillman. If you put Ross on Herzlich, how do the Giants account for Julius Thomas? It’s just too much for most, if any, defense to contain. The Broncos aren’t the 2007 New England Patriots, but Denver’s receivers are much better.

There is a huge amount of respect for the Giants receivers in Denver though, here is John Fox moments ago on your receivers, “Very formidable. Just their passing game in general — you saw what they did last week against Dallas, which is a very capable crew. Really, the difference in that game was turnovers, but otherwise offensively I think — in particular the passing game — they were right up there as far as top performances in the league.”

So there you have it, let’s see how many combined points this game can go for.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Sep 12, 2013

NFL Week 2 Picks

The Giants had the “Disaster in Dallas” on Sunday night with a six-turnover loss and I just had “The Disaster” in Week 1 with my picks.

Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? Yes, you can because the Giants do.

(I opened my 2012 NFL Week 2 Picks with that same question. I’m hoping I won’t have to use it in 2014.)

OK, maybe it’s not a “must-win game” because the Giants could bounce back from an 0-2 record even if they have to go on the road to Carolina and Kansas City in Weeks 3 and 4. But maybe I’m just saying it’s not a must-win game because the Giants have a very good chance of losing to the Broncos (and Vegas believes they will) and if they do then technically the season would be over if they lose a must-win game. So let’s not classify this game as anything (since I’m too scared to) and how about the Giants just win an important home game?

Since the “Disaster in Dallas,” the Giants have signed Brandon Jacobs, who was last with the team for the 2011 Super Bowl season before performing and talking his way out of town. And the Giants signed Jacobs because David Wilson destroyed the season opener and all Wilson’s done since that game is gotten into Twitter fights with upset Giants fans and angry fantasy team owners, which is exactly what you want your 22-year-old No. 1 running back doing in the days following him being benched.

But if the Giants had the “Disaster in Dallas” then I’m going to have to also name my Week 1 Picks, which actually went worse than the Giants’ six-turnover performance against the Cowboys. So I’m calling the Week 1 Picks just “The Disaster” because that’s what it was. A 3-12-1 week to start the season (I actually went 7-8-1 in my picks pool, so I’m not sure how I managed that much of a difference) is embarrassing. But unlike CC Sabathia, when I say I’m going to try to figure things out and be better, I really am. Even if like CC, I put my season in an early hole and it might take a while to get back to respectability and over .500, I’m going to get back on track. No fake accountability here.

Week 2 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

New York Jets +11.5 over NEW ENGLAND
Last week I let Mike Hurley tell me that the Patriots blowing out the Bills was “a guarantee.” “A guarantee” he said! Everyone knows how guarantees go when it comes to NFL picks. So I went along with Hurley and his Patriots needed a last-second field goal to put away the Bills.

This week I’m going the way I wanted to go lat week which is against the Patriots because I don’t think they’re that good (there not) and their best receiver is Julian Edelman (yes, that Julian Edelman) and because my friend Scott sent me a 717-word email with the subject “Why you should bet the Pats even at -13.” (To be fair, Scott is a Patriots fan and would probably bet them even at -42.)

The Jets won’t be able to score because not only are they the Jets, but Geno Smith is their quarterback and they had trouble scoring against Tampa Bay at home. So that means I’m reeling on the Jets defense (which means I’m relying on Rex Ryan) and Tom Brady to not be able to score at will. Wait. Why am I picking the Jets again?

PHILADELPHIA -8 over San Diego
I don’t know if I buy the Chip Kelly offense hype. I don’t want to because that doesn’t mean good things for the Giants. But I’m going to buy it this week with the Chargers coming across the country for a 1:05 game after losing to the Texans in San Diego in the late edition of Monday Night Football.

BALTIMORE -7 over Cleveland
The defending champions were embarrassed in Denver to the point that their season and offseason and future have been called into question since last Thursday night. What better way to turn the negativity around than to have Brandon Weeden and the Browns come to town? The answer is none. There isn’t a better way to get your season on track than to face Weeden and the Browns at home.

HOUSTON -9.5 over Tennessee
I’m not a fan of taking the Texans with a line this high, but I’m also not a fan of needing Jake Locker to cover a game for me. And when in doubt, pick against Jake Locker.

Miami +3 over INDIANAPOLIS
Last week I said, “Because I initially picked the Dolphins to cover here and then switch my pick to the Browns like a ninth-grade U.S. History Scantron test, I know the Browns are going to lose and their offseason hype bandwagon is going to stall.”

So I’m going to give the Dolphins another chance because I screwed them over in Week 1 (and in turn they screwed me over).

Carolina -3 over BUFFALO
The Bills surprised everyone when they nearly upset the Patriots in Week 1. The problem is the Bills and their fans are likely proud of their effort against the Patriots and feel as though their loss on a last-second field goal was sort of a victory. That’s why they’re the Bills. And that’s why I will pick against them.

ATLANTA -7 over St. Louis
All of these seven-plus lines this week are making me think this could be a make-or-break week given my record from Week 1, and it probably will be because I keep picking the home team and favorite to cover in them. It’s no different here with the Falcons returning home where they are just like the Saints when it comes to home-field advantage.

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Washington
The Packers lost a revenge game and are coming home where it’s nearly impossible to win unless you’re the Giants and it’s the playoffs and they’re playing a Washington defense that was embarrassed by Chip Kelly’s college football and an offense led by a rusty second-year quarterback coming off knee surgery. I’m going to bank on the Packers, who haven’t lost back-to-back games in three years coming out with a purpose and helping my picks and my rooting interest in the NFC East in this one.

Dallas +3 over KANSAS CITY
I’m not going to sit and here tell you the Giants should have beaten the Cowboys even though they lost 36-31 despite making six turnovers. But I am here to tell you that I don’t think the combination of Andy Reid and Alex Smith is going to do much against legitimate teams even if Reid knows the NFC East better than any opposing head coach in the league.

Minnesota +6.5 over CHICAGO
It would be much easier to pick against the Vikings if my girlfriend wasn’t a Vikings fan and if they had just missed the playoffs last year and I didn’t keep thinking they were actually a “playoff” team because really Adrian Peterson was a playoff team and the Vikings were just the same old Vikings.

New Orleans -4 over TAMPA BAY
Every once in a while there is a line that comes out that makes you think “I need to jump all over this before they realize they entered it wrong.” This is one of those games. But it’s always these games that turn out to be the nail-biter. And because of that and because the Saints outside of the Superdome are not the same team as they are in it, it won’t surprise me if Drew Brees needs to go down the field with under two minutes and no timeouts to win, but not cover.

Detroit -2.5 over ARIZONA
I will always go against Carson Palmer. Always. When the line is this low it just makes it that much easier for me to do so.

OAKLAND -6 over Jacksonville
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that. (I used that write-up twice in Week 1 and will probably use it for every Jaguars game for the season because what else am I going to say about the Jaguars? Unless they finally realize they should sign Tim Tebow.)

NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 over Denver
The last thing Eli needs to do to officially be able to tell Peyton to “Shut up” at Thanksgiving every Thanksgiving forever is to beat him directly.

San Francisco +2.5 over SEATTLE
I’m hoping for the Seahawks hype bandwagon to come to a crashing halt the way I used to watch The Weather Channel religiously in high school during the winter the night before a test or a project was due. The 49ers can start that process.

Pittsburgh +7 over CINCINNATI
The Steelers look ready to go into rebuild mode, especially when they’re losing to the Titans at home. But even though the Steelers are nowhere near the Super Bowl team they were three years ago, I’m not ready yet to start taking the Bengals to cover a touchdown at home against a team they have trouble barely beating in a nasty division rival matchup. Prove to me that you mean business, Cincinnati, and then we can talk.

Last week: 3-12-1

Blogs • Giants • Giants Thoughts

Sep 9, 2013

Giants-Cowboys Week 1 Thoughts: ‘Disaster in Dallas’

A Giants letdown should have been somewhat expected on Sunday night given what has happened during the Tom Coughlin era, but it wasn’t and the “Disaster in Dallas” occurred.

I shouldn’t have been surprised that the first play of the Giants season and the first pass of Eli Manning’s season was intercepted. I shouldn’t have been surprised that the Giants turned the ball over on their second possession as well. I shouldn’t have been surprised that the Giants turned the ball over on their third possession as well. I shouldn’t have been surprised that David Wilson didn’t learn his lesson from Week 1 2012 and fumbled twice and then was benched. I shouldn’t have been surprised that Eli Manning threw for 450 yards and four touchdowns and the Giants loss. But I was.

I thought this year would be different the same way I thought 2012 would be after 2011’s Super Bowl run; the same way I thought 2011 would be after 2010’s collapse (it wasn’t until the postseason); the same way I thought 2010 would be after 2009’s collapse; the same way I thought 2009 would be after 2008’s post-Plaxico collapse; the same way I thought 2008 would be after 2007’s Super Bowl run. But Sunday night’s game wasn’t just a look at the 2013 Giants, it was a look at the Tom Coughlin Giants and it was a game that in a few years you won’t remember which season during the Coughlin era it came from because it fits perfectly in any of them.

I should have known better than to think that 252 days off between the Giants’ 2012 season finale and their 2013 Week 1 kickoff against the Cowboys would be enough time to try and correct a team that was 6-2 and headed for a division title before finishing 9-7 and out of the playoffs and unable to defend their status as “champions.” I should have known better than to think that the New York Football Giants would start a season off by playing to their potential and limiting turnovers and mistakes and penalties. I should have known better than to think the Giants would show up in Dallas and win. But what the New York Football Giants are isn’t something that I’m familiar with or something that only Giants fans are familiar with. It’s something that even the players familiar with. Here’s what Victor Cruz said.

“I thought that was the typical Giants story of how we come back. Kind of how we always are. We get down here, and we have to crawl back and fight back. And we make some big plays and the pendulum swings.”

“Typical Giants story?” “Kind of how we always are?” “We have to crawl back and fight back?” It’s probably not good that Cruz knows what the Tom Coughlin Giants are and are about. It’s one thing for me to write and talk about it, but it’s another thing for the players to actually understand that the Giants are always going to be involved in games like they were on Sunday night.

There was the “Miracle at the Meadowlands” and the “Miracle at the New Meadowlands” and now we have the “Disaster in Dallas.” Three interceptions, two fumbles and one effed-up punt return for a 36-31 loss and an 0-1 record. The lasting image from the game won’t be Eli Manning punching the air after Da’Rel Scott gift-wrapped a touchdown for Brandon Carr to end the game. And it won’t be Tom Coughlin looking so infuriated that the only thing to compare his anger to would be a parent who found out that their kid was kicked out of college for academic and substance abuse reasons, got a girl pregnant and racked up $45,000 of credit card debt and found these things out all on the same day. No, the lasting image will be David Wilson standing on the sideline with no one to talk, staring into nothing at AT&T Stadium with his helmet lifted up on his head wondering what the eff happened. Because that what all Giants fans were wondering: What the eff happened? Well, Tom Coughlin summed it up pretty well.

“Six times we gave the ball away. Six times. I’m totally disappointed and embarrassed by that. That’s sloppy football.”

Tom Coughlin hates turnovers more than you hate anything in your life and turnovers were the only reason the Giants lost and are now faced with the Broncos as the only separating them from being 0-2 and then going on the road for back-to-back games. So on that note, let’s get to the Week 1 Thoughts.

– It’s scary that the Giants had six turnovers and lost 36-31 and actually had the ball with 2:41 left and a chance to win the game 31-30. Does that mean A.) The Giants have the best offense in the league? B.) The Cowboys suck? C.) Both teams suck? D.) Nothing, it was just a Week 1 game? I’m hoping it’s A and B and not C, but it’s probably D.

– I have no idea what Eli was doing on the first play of the game. Zero idea. He has thrown 147 interceptions in his career and that was the worst one. For all the wrong-footed, ill-timed, goal-line interceptions he has thrown, that was the worst thing I have ever seen from Number 10.

– The Giants trail 30-24 and have the ball with 2:41 left and two timeouts. It’s third-and-5 from the Giants’ 22 and Eli hits Reuben Randle for 26 yards. The Giants now the ball on their own 48. They come out of the two-minute warning and on the first play Eli throws a pass to Da’Rel Scott that Scott deflects into the hands of Brandon Carr, who returns it for a 49-yard touchdown to end the game.

It doesn’t matter if Eli made a bad pass or that Scott should have had it. What matters is that Nicks, Cruz and Randle all had over 100 yards receiving at that point and the play is to Da’Rel Scott, who barely made the team and was only in the game because David Wilson had the worst game a running back could have. That’s your play? Is this real life? The only thing I hope is that that wasn’t supposed to be the play coming out of the huddle and a TV timeout for the two-minute warning. Please don’t let that be the case.

– Victor Cruz: five catches, 118 yards, three touchdowns. Hakeem Nicks: five catches, 114 yards. Reuben Randle: five catches, 101 yards.

It the Giants don’t turn the ball over six times a game, the Giants offense is going to be the offense everyone around the league gushes about and not the Broncos, 49ers, Falcons or Packers. But I guess that would only create hype and expectations for the Giants and in turn they would fail to live up to them.

– The defensive line was still missing from the end of the 2011 season on Sunday night until the Giants had to get a stop to get the ball back while trailing 30-24 and then Justin Tuck, Linval Joseph and Jason Pierre-Paul showed up. The defensive performance won’t be talked about since Eli’s three picks and David Wilson two fumbles and the overall loss to the Cowboys are the major storylines, but the defense was much better than I thought they would be. They bailed out the turnovers each time, got the biggest stop of the game to give Eli the ball with 2:41 left, held Dez Bryant to four catches for 22 yards and gave up just 331 yards of total offense.

Knowing the Giants, this will be like the 2013 Yankees where they either hit or pitch, but don’t do both together, and the offense will bounce back in Week 2 and limit the turnovers and the defense will get torched by Peyton Manning. If Week 1 retaught me anything I have learned about the Giants in my life, it’s don’t get too down on a big loss or too high on a big win. So I’m just going to say it would be really awesome if the defense would play like that again on Sunday. That’s all.

– I had to save the Man of the Hour for last. The Giants don’t have a choice, but to play David Wilson and fix his fumbling problems. They used their 2012 first-round pick on him, benched him for nearly the entire season after Week 1 a year ago and then he failed to live up to the job of being the No. 1 back with tons of pressure and hype on him entering last night. I didn’t think that not even 12 hours after the first game of the season I would be hearing rumors and reports that Brandon Jacobs could be returning to the Giants. Ladies and gentlemen, the New York Football Giants!

After the game, Wilson said, “I’m at the bottom now. Nowhere to go but up.” Well, that’s not true since you and the Giants could stay at the bottom. And with Peyton and the Broncos coming to the Meadowlands this week, going up might have to wait another Sunday.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Giants

Sep 6, 2013

Giants-Cowboys Should Provide Usual Drama in Dallas

The New York Football Giants are back and open the season on Sunday night against the Cowboys in Dallas and that calls for an email exchange with Dave Halprin of Blogging the Boys.

The New York Football Giants are back and have the spotlight on them to start the season for the second straight year with a national TV game against the Cowboys in Dallas. It’s a battle between two teams with high expectations and the two teams no one knows what to expect each week. The talent in Sunday night’s game is unquestionable, but the consistent play from the NFC East rivals certainly is.

With the season kicking off in Dallas I did an email exchange with Dave Halprin of Blogging the Boys to talk about the game, how Tony Romo is perceived in Dallas and what the concerns are for both teams in Week 1.

Keefe: The two games the Giants and Cowboys played in 2012 were the two examples of what Giants football is.

In the first game (Week 1), the Giants were opening the NFL season at home after improbably winning the Super Bowl for the second time in four years. Prior to the game, they celebrated what they had done to end the 2011 regular season, their domination of the Falcons, their embarrassment of the Packers, their escape in San Francisco and their final-minute devastation of the Patriots … again. Would the Giants come out and prove to the football world that their playoff performance was who they really were and not what their 9-7 record suggested they were? Of course not. The Giants lost at home to a division rival because that’s what the Giants do. They lose when they’re supposed to win, they lose at home and they lose to the Cowboys at home.

When the Giants went to Dallas on Oct. 28 (Week 8), they had won three straight and five of six since their Opening Night loss to the Cowboys and were looking like the January-February Giants and not the the November-December Giants. When the Giants went up 13-0 in the first quarter and led 23-0 just 1:55 into the second quarter it felt too good to be true. And it was. The Cowboys scored 24 unanswered points to take the lead before two fourth-quarter field goals from Lawrence Tynes gave the Giants a 29-24 lead with 3:55 left. But even that wasn’t enough. An overturned 37-yard-touchdown catch by Dez Bryant nearly gave the Cowboys the lead (and most likely the win) with 10 seconds left. How did the game even get to that point? Because that’s what the Giants do. They never can put teams away and finish off a should-be laugher.

When the Giants last left me off, they routed an Eagles team that had been longing for the clock to run out in Week 17, but it was too little too late. They had blown their postseason chances by destroying their 6-2 record and losing to the Falcons and Ravens by a combined 67-14 in Weeks 15 and 16. So now what? Are the 2013 Giants going to be the 2012 Week 1-8 Giants or the 2012 Week 9-17 Giants. Is the offense going to be the big-play offense we have grown accustomed or the red-zone challenged offense that settles for field goals? (This is mostly because of Kevin Gilbride.) I like to think the Giants are going to be right there for the division and a playoff berth because I don’t want to think otherwise.

But let’s turn this over to you. The 2012 Cowboys left you off with a missed opportunity to control their own playoff destiny at the end of the season once again. So how do you feel about the 2013 Cowboys?

Halprin: By nature I’m an optimist, so I’ll probably always err on that side. But there are reasons to feel good about the 2013 Dallas Cowboys. One of the big things is they have been trying to upgrade the offensive line, a unit that was really holding them back. Besides Tyron Smith at left tackle, nobody was really that good last year, with some of them plain awful. Dallas drafted Travis Frederick to play center, and despite a lot of noise about picking him too high, it might turn out to be a very smart pick. He’s come in and been the starter at center from day one and has looked very good doing it. He’s held up physically in the middle during preseason, he’s handled the snaps with no problems and he’s making the line calls. His intelligence and his determination are often cited as key characteristics. So far, he looks much better than previous center Phil Costa. Ron Leary is slated to take over at left guard for Nate Livings. Leary was an UDFA in 2012 but only because he has a degenerative knee condition. Based on skill level, the Cowboys had him ranked as a third-rounder and other teams also had him ranked high but were scared away by the knee condition. He will probably start on Sunday and the Cowboys coaches are very excited about him. Doug Free returns as right tackle but after a terrible 2012 season he has looked like a different player in 2013 preseason. He’s regained his footwork and technique, hopefully solidifying the edge. And they just signed Brian Waters to take over at right guard. He’ll be a big upgrade from Mackenzy Bernadeau. So if this offensive line can play well, the Cowboys are stocked at skill positions on offense and should do serious damage. Of course, that’s a big IF the o-line plays well.

On defense, they made the switch to Monte Kiffin’s 4-3 Tampa 2. It’s a much simpler scheme to run and is based partly on creating turnovers. The Cowboys defense was terrible in creating turnovers last year but in the preseason this year they did a great job of getting the ball. Can it carryover into the regular season? We’ll see. The defensive line is banged up right now so that could be an issue, and I expect teams will try to isolate mismatches in the passing game against the base 4-3. It’s a gamble changing the scheme and it’s hard to say how it will play out. But overall, I actually liked what I saw in the preseason from most of the team, except special teams. That’s an area that needs to improve.

Keefe: Tony Romo enters the season with a six-year, $108 million contract extension ($55 million in guaranteed money) and now he will be an even bigger target for the media and football fans around the world who take pleasure in watching the Cowboys and their franchise quarterback fail. Romo has a 55-38 record in the regular season, but he’s won just one playoff game in his career (1-4) and is 0-3 when a playoff berth is on the line (even if none of those are wins or losses are solely because of him).

Romo has always been an intriguing athlete and figure and provides an interesting story because of the national divide on whether or not he is an “elite” quarterback and whether or not he is the answer to the future for the Cowboys. He’s the guy who can put up fake life statistics for 55 minutes of a game and then ruin that same game for his team with untimely decisions in the final five minutes. He has always scared me because of his ability to connect on the big play against the Giants, but at the same time I have always welcomed the idea of the Giants facing him in a big game.

I want to know what the perception of Romo in Dallas and what’s your personal take on him?

Halprin: My guess is there is a wide variety of opinions of Tony Romo in Dallas and among the Cowboys fan base, ranging from loving the guy to blaming the guy for everything. So let me only give my personal take.

Tony Romo is not the problem for the Dallas Cowboys, and he is very much part of the solution. I won’t sit here and say that he hasn’t made some big mistakes in crucial situations, everybody has seen that happen (although it’s curious why that seems to stick with him so much when I’ve seen plenty of other big-time quarterbacks make mistakes at crucial moments). The problem is Dallas wouldn’t even be in games with playoff berths on the line if it wasn’t largely through Romo’s efforts. If the Cowboys had a decent offensive line the past few years and a pass defense that didn’t constantly breakdown in scheme and through injuries, they would be fighting for higher seeds instead of just trying to make the playoffs.

Last year Romo spent a lot of time avoiding the rush, especially through the middle of the line, while also dealing with a non-existent running game. The Cowboys defense went through so many injuries last year that by the end of the season half of the lineup consisted of backups or street free agents. Yet through all of that Romo put up spectacular stats (except for INTs) and almost had the Cowboys winning the NFC East. Of course everybody will remember the bad game he put up against the Redskins in Week 17, but Dallas isn’t even in contention if not for Romo all year. Dallas’ defense fell apart in 2012, they were awful running the ball, Romo spent a ton of time avoiding the rush, yet he almost got the team in the playoffs. I’ll take that quarterback any day.

Keefe: Hey, it’s not like Eli Manning or Peyton Manning has ever made a big mistake in a crucial situation!

Earlier in the Romo era it seemed like the media was all about the Cowboys with their preseason predictions and this season the Cowboys are garnering some of that same attention they used to get. Meanwhile the Giants are sort of flying under the radar again, especially now with their injuries, which is the way I like it to be for the Giants since they never seem to play well when the spotlight is on them or hype surrounds them.

The biggest concern for me with the Giants is their defense and their depth given their injuries and the lack of talent and experience in the secondary, which leaves Prince Amukamara as the only reliable piece, which isn’t saying a lot. There is a good chance we could see Romo connecting with Dez Bryant and Miles Austin for big plays all night long and turning the game into the game we saw in Week 1 in 2007.

What are you most concerned about in the matchup against the Giants and what do you like for the Cowboys this week?

Halprin: One quick thing about the Romo question from before, I wouldn’t want to leave the impression that I don’t recognize Romo’s faults. The biggest is he can get loose with the football at times and sometimes he presses to make a play when he should just throw it away or take the sack. He’s still got some gunslinger in him which can backfire. Plus, he’s yet to win the big one, which allows you forthwith to make mistakes without heavy recriminations. So there’s that.

What concerns me most about this game is the Cowboys defensive line being ravaged by injury. Dallas will be without starters Jay Ratliff and probably without Anthony Spencer, they also lost a key backup early in camp (Tyrone Crawford) and they just lost Ben Bass, another key backup. They’ll be starting a player at defensive end who wasn’t even with them at the start of training camp (George Selvie). Besides DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher, this is a patchwork defensive line. Also, Ron Leary will probably start at guard but is just coming back from a knee injury, so his play may be a little rusty. And at the other guard we’re likely to see Mackenzy Bernadeau, who is sketchy at best. Maybe Dallas will decide to play Brian Waters after all.

What I like is the Cowboys passing game versus the Giants back seven. There are a lot of question marks in coverage for New York, and Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Jason Witten should be ready for big games as long as the line can protect Romo. We’ve seen Dan Connor play in Dallas and he struggles mightily in pass coverage, Dallas will look to exploit that if he’s in the game. And any corner not named Prince will surely be a prime target. The Cowboys passing game should be able to put points on the board if Romo stays upright.

Keefe: Since the start of the 2009 season, six of the eight games have been decided by seven points or less with the four games in Dallas being decided by 2, 6, 3, 5 points and the Giants have won all four of those games. The Giants have been a terrible home team during the entire Eli Manning era (they have one home playoff win during his career) and have played better on the road pretty much anywhere not named New Orleans, so it’s not just a Dallas thing, but I do like the success they had had in the Big D.

I have no idea how Sunday night will play out, mainly because if I did I would be living in a penthouse on the strip in Las Vegas making a living with my ability to correctly predict football games. Forget that it’s Week 1 and a new team and a new season, but the inconsistencies of the Giants complicate things the most when trying to visualize the game and what might happen.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Giants came out and aired it out all game and let Eli, Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz play the type of game the Giants should be playing without Kevin Gilbride getting his hands on it and incorporating too much of a running game. But it also wouldn’t surprise me if the Giants come out and play the way they did in Weeks 15 and 16 last year against the Falcons and Ravens and lay an egg to stat their season.

The highs and lows of emotions as a Giants fan during a single game is something I wish every fan could experience (and maybe they already do) and I’m sure that my feeling of ecstasy for football being back will carry me until kickoff and I’m also sure the Giants will have me questioning whether or not I even like football at some point during the game (probably on the first drive).

What do you expect to happen Sunday night?

Halprin: As you mentioned, in recent games between these two teams the scored has usually remained close. Cowboys fans are pretty bitter about the Giants winning at JerryWorld so regularly, I imagine the players are kind of tired of it, too. I guess I expect another hard-fought NFC East divisional clash, but I also think this game could get sloppy at points. Dallas is dealing with injuries and change in a lot of areas which can be problematic, and combined with this being the first game of the season, perfect execution is doubtful. The Giants are also dealing with significant injuries on the O-line and in a couple of other spots, so overall it could be a matter of which backups who are forced into action make fewer mistakes.

I do think the Cowboys will win, but that’s just me being an optimist. I fully realize they could just as easily lose, so I’m not over-confident, but I predict a Cowboys victory, maybe 27-21 or something along those lines.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Sep 5, 2013

NFL Week 1 Picks

The NFL is back and so are the weekly picks. Let’s get the 2013 season started off on the right foot with the Week 1 picks.

Labor Day is the ultimate Catch-22. The summer is over and the days get shorter as baseball starts to come to an end. But the temperatures get more reasonable, baseball pennant races pick up with hockey just around the corner and it’s the start of football season. The last thing there, “the start of football season,” is the one thing that keeps me from staying in bed, putting my Cliff Lee Sad Song Playlist on repeat and just waiting for the first nice day of spring, especially after a summer in which the Yankees have put themselves in a position where they have to win nearly every game in September.

The first day of football season means the first day of picks, doing longhand addition on the back of bills to create wild parlays, figuring out how to track four fantasy teams without getting the “Stop running this script?” message on a computer, freaking out over a suicide pool in the fourth quarter of the first week, searching for some overseas site that has every NFL game available to watch if you just answer some survey questions, drinking excessive amounts of beer and eating foods that contain little to no nutritional value.

Football is back in my life and so are the New York Football Giants.

When I last left off with the Giants, they decided to try and save their season in Week 17 against the Eagles when their season was already over. The embarrassment of another second-half collapse and destruction of a 6-2 record completed by the blowouts at the hands of the Falcons and Ravens in Weeks 15 and 16 made me happy that football was going away for eight months. But it’s been a long eight months of wondering “What could have been?” had the Giants not gone into the same freefall they have gone into every season during the Tom Coughlin era with the exception of the two Super Bowl winning seasons. But when Carrie Underwood leads us into Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth and the Giants and Cowboys kick off in the Big D on Sunday night, the bad memories of how the 2012 season ended will be erased (but not forgotten) and the hopes of playing in the last game of the football season will begin.

Football is back and that means so are the weekly picks.

Week 1 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Baltimore +7.5 over DENVER
Week 1 is so hard to pick because there is nothing to go off of except what you remember from last season and everything you have been told and force fed in the offseason and possibly some preseason action if you actually watch preseason football. The only thing harder than Week 1 is Week 2 when all you have to go off is what you saw in Week 1, which could be completely off.

The defending Super Bowl champions are on the road to open the season because the Orioles are hosting the White Sox across the street from M&T Bank Stadium. That’s right, the fading Orioles are playing the 56-82 White Sox, so Ravens fans will have to celebrate their championship for the last time by watching on NBC or by spending thousands of dollars to travel to Denver for the game.

Last season the Ravens lost to the Broncos, 34-17, in Week 15 before beating them in two overtimes in the divisional round of the playoffs thanks to a 70-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left in the game and some terrible coaching and decision making form the Broncos.

So why are the Broncos giving over a touchdown at home on Opening Night to the defending champions? I’m not sure.

New England -10.5 over BUFFALO
Just for fun I took a look at the Bills depth chart to see what their working with in 2013 and it’s not pretty. Bills fans don’t like when anyone talks poorly about them or picks against them (even when a spread is involved), but even a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his neck (someone like this has to exist) or a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his bald head (someone like this also has to exist) would tell you that the 2013 season is going to be fine.

Pittsburgh -7 over TENNESSEE
I really, really, really don’t want to pick the Steelers at seven-point favorites, but then again, how can I pick the Titan to cover? I can’t.

NEW ORLEANS -3 over Atlanta
Last year the Saints season was over at 0-4 then revitalized at 5-5 then destroyed with a three-game losing streak. They were coming off the punishments from their bounty program and Sean Payton was suspended for the season. Saints fans haven’t had a chance to go crazy since their playoff game against the Lions on Jan. 7, 2012 and that was a long time ago. The Superdome is going to be a scary effing place on Sunday and it’s the last place the Falcons defense wants to be to open the season.

Tampa Bay -4.5 over NEW YORK JETS
With the start of football season comes “fan denial.” Every fan thinks their team is going to have a great year and no one wants to hear about the possibility of a lost season or being out of it before the end of September. “Fan denial” is prevalent around the entire NFL, but when it comes to the New York Jets and their fans it’s scary how out of touch with reality people can be.

The Jets are going to suck. They are going to suck in a way that when Rex Ryan is finally showed the door, the Butt Fumble might not be the most embarrassing moment that happened under his watch. But don’t tell Jets fans this. I have had some Jets fan friends tell me the team has a shot at the postseason if everything falls right and I have had others tell me at worst the Jets will finish 8-8. There’s no way to respond to anyone who could make themselves believe that, so I have just to nod my hod in agreement or say things like “Oh yeah, I could see that.” The key to handling Jets fans is to just wait them out. By Week 6 their season will be mathematically destroyed and they won’t be able to use overconfidence as a personality. Just wait them out.

Kansas City -4.5 over JACKSONVILLE
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Chiefs fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

CHICAGO -3 over Cincinnati
The Bears are the closest things to the Giants in the NFL when you look at their talent and ability to completely destroy a playoff-bound season. But when it comes to the Bengals there isn’t a team that has gotten as much positive attention and has had as many preseason predictions in their favor since the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays, the 2012 Kansas City Royals, the 2011 Boston Red Sox and every Cowboys team during the Tony Romo era. Nothing says “Letdown season” more than the 2013 Cincinnati Bengals if only because they are being picked to go play at MetLife Stadium in February.

CLEVELAND -1 over Miami
I keep hearing about how the Browns weren’t as bad as their record says they were last season and how close they were to being 8-8. The only problem is they weren’t. And because I initially picked the Dolphins to cover here and then switch my pick to the Browns like a ninth-grade U.S. History Scantron test, I know the Browns are going to lose and their offseason hype bandwagon is going to stall.

Seattle -4.5 over CAROLINA
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Seahawks fan or a Panthers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Minnesota +6 over DETROIT
The way everyone says each season that three playoff teams could come from the NFC East can now also be said about the NFC North. And it’s time I think everyone needs to look at NFC North games the way they look at NFC East games (before the Eagles fell apart) in that every spread should be three points and any spread over that, you have to take the points.

INDIANAPOLIS -10 over Oakland
Remember when Matt Flynn was highly coveted because of one game (the final game of the 2011 season)? Remember when the Seahawks gave him $10 million of guaranteed money off that game and then made Russell Wilson their starting quarterback over him? And then remember when Flynn was traded to the Raiders two be their starting quarterback and lost out on the job to Terrelle Pryor? I always thought Matt Cassel being coached by Bill Belichick and getting to play with the Patriots offense in 2008 and then cashing in would always be the easiest way any NFL quarterback not named JaMarcus Russell would get rich. But then Matt Flynn came along and totally changed the game by having one good game.

It’s the Everyone Who Is In A Suicide Pool Is Picking This Game of the Week. And I guess it also should be the Anyone Who Is Doing A 10-Point Teaser Is Picking This Game of the Week.

ST. LOUIS -4.5 over Arizona
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Rams fan or a Cardinals fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Green Bay +5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I thought this line was high when I first looked at it in the middle of the summer long before the NFL season was in sight because why wouldn’t I check out Week 1 lines with the season months away? And I still think it’s too high especially with the entire world that isn’t all over the Broncos, Seahawks and Bengals being all over the 49ers when the Packers have the “best” quarterback in the league.

New York Giants +3.5 over DALLAS
The Giants have never lost in Cowboys/AT&T Stadium. (And did you think I would pick against the Giants playing the Cowboys in Week 1?)

WASHINGTON -4.5 over Philadelphia
After beating the Giants in Week 4, the Eagles were 3-1. After losing to the Giants in Week 17, the Eagles finished the season 4-12. A 1-11 stretch was enough for the Eagles to finally fire Andy Reid and try to give their team a much-needed facelift. The common theme this offseason has been that the Eagles won’t be good, but that Chip Kelly might be able to revitalize the team in his first year. Even if he can, it won’t happen in Week 1.

Houston -5.5 over SAN DIEGO
It’s disappointing that Norv Turner is no longer the Chargers head coach because I liked free wins with my picks. But I’m also happy that Norv is gone because this line would have been higher and more challenging had he still been the coach. I have been anti-Philip Rivers and anti-Chargers all along, so I’m not about to turn my back on my beliefs now even if Norv isn’t there.