The Tom Coughlin era could be coming to an end on Sunday at MetLife Stadium. It doesn’t seem real that I might be watching Coughlin on the Giants sideline for the final time and it shouldn’t be, but until it’s official, I will hold out hope that ownership gives him at least one more year.

It’s the final week of the regular season and with 27 games left in the NFL season, barring an epic disaster, this picks season is going to end above .500. With Week 17, we’re faced with a lot of meaningless games between teams that have nothing to play for and will begin their offseason on Monday and teams that have already locked up their seed and will likely rest their starters for all of the majority of their final game. That makes these picks the hardest of the season, but also the easiest to write.

DALLAS -3.5 over Washington
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Cowboys fan or a Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

New York Jets -3.5 over BUFFALO
A must-win game for the Jets, well that is unless the Steelers lose to the Browns, and of course standing between the Jets and controlling their own fate for a postseason berth is Rex Ryan, who you could say has stood between them and a postseason berth since 2011. It’s hard to see the Jets not winning this game after they were able to knock off the Patriots (even if the Patriots looked like they could care less about winning) in Week 16. If the Jets lose this game and the Steelers beat the Browns, it might be the worst regular-season loss in the history of the Jets. For once, will the Jets not be the same old Jets?

INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 over Tennessee
The Colts need some help to get in the playoffs, but they’re not going to get it. The Texans are going to win and the Colts’ postseason streak under Chuck Pagano will come to an end.

CINCINNATI -7.5 over Baltimore
This game is important for the Bengals’ postseason chances because it gives A.J. McCarron another game under his belt heading into the playoffs. If McCarron truly believes he can launch a Tom Brady-like career as a backup who took over for an injured starter, he’s going to need all the real-game experience he can get before Wild-Card Weekend.

New England -9.5 over MIAMI
It’s nearly impossible to beat the Patriots at Gillette in the postseason and all the Patriots have to do to clinch home-field advantage in the AFC is to beat the Dolphins who have been waiting for the offseason for months. After the Patriots barely tried to beat the Jets last week, and still nearly did, it might take even less of an effort to get past the Dolphins and make sure they host the Broncos in a potential AFC Championship Game matchup. The Dolphins might be the only thing standing between the Patriots and another red carpet walk to the Super Bowl and that’s not good for anyone.

CHICAGO -1.5 over Detroit
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Bears fan or a Lions fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Pittsburgh -10.5 over CLEVELAND
Somehow the Steelers lost to Ryan Mallett and the Ravens in a potential must-win game for a playoff berth and now they need some help. The Steelers should be able to easily handle the Austin Davis Browns, but it’s going to take a Jets loss in Buffalo for the Steelers to survive their embarrassing loss to the Ravens.

HOUSTON -6.5 over Jacksonville
A Texans win and they’re in and the way they have been able to beat up on their division this season makes this the easiest pick of the week.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 over Philadelphia
This could be the last game of the Tom Coughlin era and here I am hoping the Giants lose. If the Giants win, they get a lower draft pick and have to play the Seahawks in Seattle in 2016. If the Giants lose, they get a better draft pick and play the Rams in London in 2016. No Giants fan should be rooting for the Giants on Sunday.

ATLANTA -4.5 over New Orleans
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Falcons fan or a Saints fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

DENVER -7.5 over San Diego
A Patriots loss and Broncos win gives the Broncos home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs and means there might be a chance that the Patriots don’t get to the Super Bowl. If the Broncos have to go to Gillette for the AFC Championship Game, I might as well start hoping the Cardinals, Panthers or Seahawks can beat them in February.

SAN FRANCISCO +3.5 over St. Louis
Somewhere someone who isn’t a 49ers fan or a Rams fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

KANSAS CITY -6.5 over Oakland
From 1-5 to 11-5? If the Chiefs beat the Raiders in Week 17, they will finish the season on a 10-game winning streak and be the hottest team in the league entering the playoffs with what looks like a first-round game at Houston.

CAROLINA -10.5 over Tampa Bay
A Panthers win clinches them home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs and that should be reason enough for them to go full out against a Buccaneers team with absolutely nothing to play for.

ARIZONA -4.5 over Seattle
The Cardinals say they are going to play to win this game even if things aren’t going their way out in Carolina. If the Cardinals do play to win and play the way they have over their first 15 games, the Seahawks won’t win. But if Bruce Arians decides to get to his bye week as healthy as possible, this pick won’t stand a chance.

Minnesota +3.5 over GREEN BAY
Once again, I’m picking the Vikings because my girlfriend is a Vikings fan, who hates the Packers the way she hates the San Francisco Giants, and because the Vikings have been so good to me this year in my picks. Let’s finish the regular season on a winning note.

Last week: 5-11-0
Season: 128-107-5

The football season isn’t as fun when the Giants don’t matter and we’re a Redskins win over the Eagles on Saturday night from the Giants not mattering and their season being over. If the Redskins beat the Eagles in Philadelphia, I will be the happiest person that Odell Beckham Jr. is suspended is suspended for Sunday Night Football and would go as far as to make him inactive for Week 17 even if the Giants’ single-season receiving yards record would still be a possibility despite him missing a game. There’s nothing good that can come from the Giants trying once they are eliminated. Tank the last two games, get an easier 2016 schedule and a higher draft pick. After blowing five should-have-been wins this season, that’s the least the Giants can do for their fans to end the season.

The picks season is a 17-week grind to get through the regular season and then another four-week grind in the postseason. It’s hard and frustrating and that’s before you get to the late weeks of the season when players are just hoping to get to the offseason healthy and where losing teams can taste the final minutes of their season before they hit the beach and the nice weather and skip out on the winter weather and stop beating up their bodies every week. This week there are five games that have absolutely no meaning when it comes to the playoffs and then number is only going to increase next week. After what has been a successful picks season, it’s time to finish strong and get hot heading into the postseason.

OAKLAND -5.5 over San Diego
I always take the Raiders in the Battle for Which Team Should Move, but usually when I’m taking the Raiders, they are getting points and a good amount of them. These two franchises are moving in opposite directions and to keep up with the times, I’m sticking with the Raiders, who I think have done more good than bad for me against their in-state rival.

PHILADELPHIA -4 over Washington
I actually think the Redskins will cover and win this game. The problem is I can’t root against the only hope the Giants have for making the playoffs even if the Giants haven’t done anything that should even have me wanting them to reach the postseason. Fly Eagles Fly! (I think I’m going to need to shower after rooting for the Eagles in this game.)

New England -2 over NEW YORK JETS
The Patriots don’t need this game and the Jets have to have this game. That’s usually enough of a reason for people to pick one way, but this is the Jets we’re talking about. The team that lost seemingly must-win games against the Bills and Texans and now need to win out and have the Steelers or Chiefs lose in the final two weeks to very bad teams. The Jets never make things easy for themselves, much like the Giants except the Giants manage to win the Super Bowl every once in a while, and if this is going to be a close game, I don’t trust the Jets.

Houston -4 over TENNESSEE
I would like to take this time to thank to the Titans for giving the Patriots a last-minute cover last week thanks to a turnover that felt so inevitable I was never really worried the Patriots weren’t going to cover a two-touchdown spread. The Titans are the worst team in the NFL and have absolutely nothing to play for in the final two weeks (though they haven’t had anything to play for for a while now). The Texans, still in the playoff hunt, should be able to get past the Titans easily even on the road and even with a quarterback that I wouldn’t trust under any other circumstance.

KANSAS CITY -11 over Cleveland
The Chiefs were once 1-5. Now they are 9-5 and control their own fate for the playoffs. Not only are they a lock for a wild-card berth, but they could still take the AFC West from the Broncos and get a first-round home game. I wouldn’t want my team to have to go to Arrowhead in the first round of the playoffs and face a Chiefs team that could be on a 10-game winning streak in front of that crowd. Actually, who am I kidding? I would sign up for the Giants having to play in Seattle with all of the Giants players required to wear headphones and no cleats just to see a playoff game after these last four seasons.

Miami -2 over INDIANAPOLIS
The last thing I need is the Colts finding a way into the playoffs and then having Andrew Luck back for a postseason game and winning that game, so that the entire sports media world can drool over a guy who seems to throw as many interceptions as touchdowns. The Colts don’t have a chance in beating the Patriots if they were to meet in the playoffs and I need as many teams that can beat the Patriots in the playoffs as possible.

DETROIT -9 over San Francisco
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Lions fan or a 49ers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

BUFFALO -6 over Dallas
Another one!

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Bills fan or a Cowboys fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

CHICAGO +3 over Tampa Bay
And another one!

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Bears fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Carolina -7 over ATLANTA
I don’t want Carolina to go undefeated because I feel like an undefeated team should be an absolute juggernaut that runs over every team the play. (Hi, 2007 Patriots!) Couple that with the fact that I’m still angry about the Odell Beckham Jr. suspension while Josh Norman got the equivalent of a $10 for a person with a normal everyday job and everything that happened last Sunday and the following punishments are just so stupid.

Pittsburgh -11 over BALTIMORE
The Jets can’t be happy about the Week 16 and 17 opponents for the Steelers and Chiefs needing one of them to lose a game. You don’t get anymore cupcake than Ryan Mallett starting in Week 16 for a Ravens team that has been waiting for the clock to read 0:00 in Week 17 for months.

Jacksonville +2.5 over NEW ORLEANS
There’s just no way I can back the Saints with that defense. Not even in the Superdome and not even against the Jaguars. The days of the Saints being two-possession favorites at home no matter who the opponent is are long gone as the days of taking the points against the Saints in New Orleans no matter who the opponent is are here.

SEATTLE -11 over St. Louis
We’re headed for a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl rematch. I can feel it. I won’t be anywhere as confident as I was headed into last year’s Super Bowl for the Patriots to lose until Pete Carroll handed it to them since the Seahawks’ defense has regressed as Russell Wilson has progressed. But it’s going to happen. Seahawks-Patriots Part II. (Or Cardinals-Patriots. It’s one of those two.)

ARIZONA -6 over Green Bay
I don’t enjoy football Sundays as much as I’m going to start enjoying picking against Aaron Rodgers Sundays. Can we please stop with the idea that he is the best quarterback in the league or that he ever actually was? As long as Tom Brady is still winning games as every average to above-average player goes down with injury around him, he’s the best. Rodgers lost Jordy Nelson for the season in preseason and you would have though he lost Jerry Rice in his prime with the way he is treated week after week with the excuses for his career-worst play. He still has Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and James Jones as well as Eddie Lacy and James Starks, and while some of those players haven’t lived up their potential or hype, if you give Brady those five players, the Patriots walk to another championship.

NEW YORK GIANTS +7 over Minnesota
This is it. An Eagles win coupled with a Giants win and Week 17 matters. But if the Eagles lose on Saturday night, this game could get ugly for a Giants team playing in freezing temperatures in Minnesota with nothing to play for and without their best player.

DENVER -4 over Cincinnati
Brock Osweiler vs. AJ McCarron! Just the way ESPN hoped it would be when they got this game for their final Monday Night Football game of the season.

Last week: 10-6-0
Season: 123-96-5

During baseball season, Yankees off days always feel like forever, but in reality, it’s the time between games during a bye week in football season that actually feels like forever. With the Giants suffering another heartbreaking loss, to the Patriots no less, the last thing you want to do is wait another 10 days for the all-important and potentially division-deciding game against the Redskins to take place. Unfortunately, there’s nothing to, but wait. Wait and make picks.

(Home team in caps)

JACKSONVILLE -3 over Tennessee
This would be “that” game of the week, but it’s on Thursday Night Football and everyone will watch since it’s the only game on and because the AFC South is so bad, this game actually has playoff implications. The 3-6 Jaguars are one game back in the division and the 2-7 Titans are two games back. Yes, two games back at 2-7. No one should ever say anything bad about the NFC East.

CAROLINA -7.5 over Washington
I don’t like that the Redskins are still in the NFC East race. It’s supposed to be the Giants vs. Eagles at this point and the Redskins are supposed to be battling the Cowboys to not finish in last place even though finishing in last place in the NFL gives you a schedule advantage the following season, so if you’re going to lose, you might as well lose big. It’s time for the Redskins to turn into the Redskins and go on a nice losing streak and clear the way for the NFC East two become a two-team competition.

Oakland -2.5 over DETROIT
The two hardest teams in the league to read are playing each other and the only reasoning I have in taking the Raiders and that I really, really, really don’t like this Lions team.

Dallas -1 over MIAMI
Tony Romo is back. Here is what the Cowboys did without Tony Romo:

Lost to Atlanta 39-28.
Lost to New Orleans 26-20 in overtime.
Lost to New England 30-6.
Lost to the Giants 27-20.
Lost to Seattle 13-12.
Lost to Philadelphia 33-27 in overtime.
Lost to Tampa Bay 10-6.

That’s an 0-7 record with five of the losses by seven points or less, four of the losses by six points or less, two of the losses by four points or less, two of the losses in overtime and one of the losses by one point. During those seven games, the Cowboys started Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel. It’s very likely that the Cowboys would have won the NFC East if Romo had been healthy all year, but he wasn’t, and at 2-7 with seven games left, the Cowboys will have to be perfect and win out to reach the playoffs. It’s not going to happen, but I have a terrible feeling they are going to make things interesting because the Giants and Eagles will let them make things interesting.

Indianapolis +6 over ATLANTA
The Colts are 2-0 with Matt Hasselbeck as their quarterback this season and 2-5 with Andrew Luck as their quarterback and I feel more confident in the Colts with Hasselbeck playing. Couple that with the fact that the Falcons are a fraudulent 6-3 team that has lost three of four with the one win in that span being a 10-7 win over the Titans and this game feels almost too easy to pick.

St. Louis +2 over BALTIMORE
For some reason, I backed the Rams to cover a touchdown against the Bears last week. And when Todd Gurley brought them down the field with relative ease to give them an early 7-0 lead, I thought it would be smooth sailing to a W. Instead, they lost 37-13 at home. So why am I backing them this week? Good question.

New York Jets -2.5 over HOUSTON
The Jets’ season is over as a result of their loss to the Bills last week on Thursday Night Football. At 5-4, the Jets are in seventh place in the AFC playoff picture and they don’t have the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Raiders or Bills. The Jets would have to finish at least 5-2 to make the playoffs and with the Dolphins, Giants, Cowboys, Patriots and Bills still on their schedule, that’s just not going to happen. I do think the Jets will stay in the race only too look back at their home loss to the Bills as the reason as to why they don’t make the playoffs. And in that loss, they turned the ball over four times, blew two fourth downs with a chance to win and still only lost by five. Better luck next year!

Tampa Bay +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA
The Cowboys are done in the NFC East race and the next step is to knock either the Eagles or Redskins out of it. The Giants aren’t going to make it easy on themselves to win the division, so it’s going to take a lot of rooting against their direct competition.

Denver -1 over CHICAGO
Brock Osweiler makes his first career NFL start on his birthday. You don’t lose on your birthday. That’s a fact. At least not at the casino. So it might be true for the NFL too.

Kansas City -3 over SAN DIEGO
Could the Chiefs win the AFC West despite starting 1-5? It’s not really that crazy. The Broncos are 7-2, but are now without Peyton Manning and their remaining games are against Chicago, New England, San Diego, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and San Diego. The Chiefs are 4-5 and three games back, but they finish against San Diego, Buffalo, Oakland, San Diego, Baltimore, Cleveland and Oakland. It’s not going to be easy, but the Chiefs are very much alive in the division (and the wild-card) and could be looking at hosting a playoff game at Arrowhead after the way they started the season.

MINNESOTA 0 over Green Bay
If you’re not done with the Packers, you should be. The Packers have gone from NFC favorites to on their way out of the playoff picture. Right now, the Packers would be the 5-seed in the NFC and would play their first-round game at MetLife against the Giants, and we all know how the Packers do in the postseason against the Giants. A Vikings win on Sunday would improve them to 8-2 and make the Packers 6-4, creating a two-game gap in the NFC North with the Vikings holding the head-to-head tiebreaker with six games to play. I’m a Vikings fan when it doesn’t interfere with being a Giants fan because of my girlfriend (there will be issues in Week 16), and this week will be the hardest I have ever rooted for the Vikings.

SEATTLE -12.5 over San Francisco
The Seahawks are done unless they go on at least a 6-1 run, but even then, it still might not be enough. I was astonished that the Seahawks’ defense let the Cardinals go to Seattle and put up 39 points on them and that the Seahawks weren’t able to hold on to their lead after overcoming an early 19-0 deficit. The best cure for a fledging Seahawks team that is watching their season spiral out of control nine-plus months after their head coach gave away their second straight championship is Blaine Gabbert and the 49ers. This is the type of game the Seahawks dominate and it would be a victory for the 49ers if they score six points in it.

ARIZONA -5 over Cincinnati
I have been hot and cold on the Cardinals all season, but on Sunday Night Football in Seattle they showed me a lot. Now it could be a trap since I have never believed in Carson Palmer and have likely been way too high on the Seahawks, but going to Seattle and scoring 39 points is impressive even if the Legion of Boom isn’t what it once was. And since I have never been a believer in the Bengals during the Andy Dalton era or at any point this season even with them starting 8-0, their embarrassing loss at home to the Texans and to Brian Hoyer and T.J. Yates only reinforced my opinion on them. The Bengals couldn’t solve the Texans’ defense, which has underachieved and been dominated all season, and they certainly aren’t going to have a better showing against the Cardinals’ defense, which might be the best in the game.

Buffalo +7 over NEW ENGLAND
If the NFL didn’t have insane rules about a catch is and if it knew what a catch is then Odell Beckham Jr. wins the game for the Giants on Sunday and the Giants would have four straight wins over the Patriots and the Patriots would no longer be undefeated. The Giants also would have won if Landon Collins could catch an easy game-ending interception or if the defense could make a stop on fourth-and-10 or just make a stop at all with the game on the line on the final drive.

The Giants once again exposed the Patriots to the rest of the league just like they always do and now it’s up to their seven remaining opponents to take notice and capitalize and it starts with Rex Ryan’s Bills. The Bills control their own destiny for a playoff berth and going to Gillette and playing the Julian Edelman-less Patriots is a good place to start on their quest to reach the postseason for the first time since 1999.

Last week: 7-7-0
Season: 74-68-4

I should have realized the Giants would never make anything easy after they won Super Bowl XLII and then got off to an 11-1 start in 2008 only to win the 1-seed in the NFC and lose in the divisional round at home to the Eagles. I should have realized they would never make anything easy after they won Super Bowl XLVI and then got off to a 6-2 start in 2012 only to finish the season 2-4 and miss the playoffs. And I should have realized it in all the other years when they suffered second-half collapses. But I finally realized it for good after Monday night’s loss to the Eagles.

The Giants should have never been in a game against a Cowboys team without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and with Matt Cassel. They should have never been in a game in which Cassel threw three interceptions. They should have never needed Dwayne Harris to return a kickoff 100 yards to take the lead for good and they should have never needed Cole Beasley to muff a punt to prevent the Cowboys from potentially tying the game. But that’s who the Giants are and nothing about Sunday’s 27-20 win surprised me.

Since I’m officially done thinking the Giants can easily win a game (or cover a spread) against a banged-up or bad team or create separation in a division that includes the Tony Romo- and Dez Bryant-less Cowboys, the Sam Bradford Eagles and the Kirk Cousins Redskins, I expected the Giants to have a hard time beating Matt Cassel on Sunday. I went into the game knowing that the Cowboys were going to use the running game to eat up the clock and keep the Giants off the field and limit the amount of times Cassel had to go to the air, though apparently, the Giants weren’t ready for this strategy. Darren McFadden rushed for 152 yards, the fourth-highest total of his career and the most since Sept. 25, 2011 and the Cowboys ran for 233 yards as a team.

Eli Manning didn’t do much (13-of-24, 170 yards) and outside of the deep throw to Rueben Randle, which Randle made an Odell Beckham-like one-handed catch on, it was a pretty poor performance from Eli as he was bailed out by his defense. It was the second straight less-than-stellar performance from Eli at a time when he needs to carry this team if they don’t want to miss the postseason for the fourth straight season.

When I saw the Giants’ post-49ers schedule with the Eagles, Cowboys, Saints, Buccaneers and Patriots before their Week 11 bye, I envisioned a 7-2 record entering the Patriots game. The loss to the Eagles made that impossible, but the win over the Cowboys has them at 4-3. The problem is that 7-2 was based off the idea that the Saints were finished and wouldn’t give them their usual Superdome game, but now the 0-3 Saints are suddenly 3-4 and still alive.

I was foolish to think the Giants would make things easy in another down year for the NFC East and run away and hide with the division rather than set up a Week 17 game against the Eagles for a playoff berth. Now the Giants have to take care of business on the road in New Orleans in Tampa Bay before they play the should-be undefeated Patriots in Week 10. It’s not the situation I envisioned, but it’s the one I should have.

The Giants are a .500 team that needs to play just a little bit better than that to reach the postseason this season. They weren’t able to finish a 6-2 start in 2012. They weren’t able to save their season against the Cowboys in 2013. They weren’t able to build off their 3-2 start in 2014. In 2015, they will most likely need to win just nine games to win the NFC East and return to the playoffs. It sounds easy, but nothing with the Giants is ever easy.

I thought last week might be Black Sunday when it comes to the picks. There seems to be that one week every season that goes horribly wrong and can ruin a picks season for good and my confidence level wasn’t great with last week’s lines and the way the day was going at one point. Even after losses on Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football the week finished at 7-7. But the last few weeks have just been about staying afloat and treading water and that’s no way to go with the potential of Black Sunday looming in any week. It’s time to make that huge cushion and create enough separation from the .500 mark that it won’t be relinquished.

(Home team in caps)

Seattle -6.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
There’s just no way the Seahawks are bad as they have played. There’s no way the team the won the Super Bowl two years ago and the team that was on the 1-yard line with a chance to win the Super Bowl last year should be 2-4 and playing for their season now with the Cardinals emerging as a possible NFC West favorite. The Seahawks are still good and are still one of the elite teams in the NFC. The Seahawks aren’t like the 49ers, who are really the team that has fallen from grace over the last two years since their run of Super Bowl and NFC Championship Game appearances. It’s about time the Seahawks act like the two-time defending NFC champions.

JACKSONVILLE +4 over Buffalo
I hate the games in London. Not because the NFL is taking the sport out of the country and having it played in Europe and depriving teams of home games here, but because the games are always horrible matchups. Jaguars and Bills? Really? It’s almost like the Football Gods are punishing the NFL for having games in London by making sure Tyrod Taylor (not that he’s anything special) and Sammy Watkins don’t play and that EJ Manuel does. How again are the Bills giving 4 in this game? These aren’t the Jaguars of recent years.

ST. LOUIS -6.5 over Cleveland
Outside of their 21-point Week 1 loss to the Jets, the 2-3 Browns have been in all of their games. They beat the Titans by 14, lost to the Raiders by seven, lost to the Chargers by three, beat the Ravens in overtime by three and lost to the Broncos in overtime by three. The Browns are pesky and hard to put away and I have trouble picking against them every week even though they are depriving me of the Johnny Football era.

The Rams, meanwhile, are the hardest team in the NFL not named the Giants to figure out. They beat the Seahawks in overtime, lost to the Redskins by 14, lost to the Steelers by six, beat the Cardinals by two and lost to the Packers by 14. The win over the Seahawks in Week 1 and in Arizona were both impressive, but losing to the Redskins and the mostly-without Big Ben Steelers aren’t. (I give them a pass for losing in Lambeau since every team does.) Coming off a bye and at home, I have a good feeling about the Rams and mainly their defense winning this game.

Pittsburgh +3 over KANSAS CITY
If the Chiefs can’t win this game, they might lose out and finish the season 1-15 after winning in Houston in Week 1.

Houston +5 over MIAMI
The Dolphins were the most hyped team in the NFL this season, and when they just got past the Redskins with a 17-10 win in Week 1, it was written off as the first game of the season. Then they lost to the Jaguars (23-20). Then they were embarrassed by the Bills (41-14). Then they were somewhat embarrassed by the Jets in London (27-14). Then they fired Joe Philbin, had their bye week and routed the Titans 38-10 last week. Now after one good game this season, the Dolphins are suddenly back as a 5-point favorite?

New York Jets +7.5 over NEW ENGLAND
This is the hardest game of the week to pick. I thought the Patriots really cared about going to Indianapolis and sending a message and running the Colts out of their own building for everything that has happened since January, but the Patriots could have cared less about anything other than getting out of there with a win, no matter how close the score was. Now the 5-0 Patriots return home to face the 4-1 Jets with first place in the AFC East on the line for the biggest regular-season game between the two since December 2010 when they were both 9-2 and playing for first place on Monday Night Football.

I have no idea which version of either team will show up. You would think this game would be about the Patriots’ offense vs. the Jets’ defense, but after watching the Colts pick apart the Patriots’ defense and the Jets’ offense explode recently behind Brandon Marshall and Chris Ivory, this game might be about the Jets’ offense. vs. the Patriots’ defense. Either way, 7.5 points is too many. These aren’t the Rex Ryan Jets.

MINNESOTA -1.5 over Detroit
I didn’t think it was possible for Jim Caldwell to surprise me with a decision, but he did that last week in Chicago. With 5:09 left in the fourth quarter and the Lions trailing 31-24 with a fourth-and-4 on the Bears’ 13, Caldwell called for a field goal. The Lions were trailing by a SEVEN POINTS with five minutes left in the game and Caldwell elected for THREE POINTS meaning the Lions would still have to stop the Bears, get the ball back and then score a touchdown anyway since three plus three doesn’t equal seven. It was an incredible decision to watch be made, but Caldwell was bailed out as the Lions did kick the field goal and then get the ball back and score a touchdown (before the Bears went down the field to kick the game-tying field goal to send the game to overtime). It was like watching someone with a huge bet on the table (because Caldwell’s job must certainly be on the line with the way this Lions season has gone) stay with a 15 against the dealer showing a 7 and then having it pay off and thinking they’re a genius. No, you just got lucky, and Jim Caldwell got very, very, very, very, very, very, very lucky.

Atlanta -6 over TENNESSEE
Marcus Mariota is out. Zach Mettenberger is in. The same Zach Mettenberger that is 0-6 as a starter in the NFL.

WASHINGTON -3.5 over Tampa Bay
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Redskins fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

INDIANAPOLIS -5.5 over New Orleans
The Saints screwed me on Thursday Night Football last week. The Colts screwed me on Sunday Night Football last week. I’m probably going to get screwed again this week, but if it’s going to happen, it will need to be the Outside the Superdome Saints screwing me.

SAN DIEGO -3.5 over OAKLAND
It’s been a long tradition of mine to take the Raiders to cover against the Chargers, but when I see the Chargers schedule and see that they’re 2-4, I see a team about to go on a run. Since the end of the Chargers’ run as the AFC West power, which coincided with Peyton Manning going to the Broncos, the Chargers have been pretty much a .500 team that ends up making a run to either finish 8-8 or 9-7 and either barely make the playoffs or barely miss them. When you see those end-of-the-season clinching possibilities, it’s always the Chargers in the mix either needing three other teams to lose (or tie, which never happens). They don’t make things easy for themselves and losing a home game to the Michael Vick Steelers has put them in a bad position once again. But when you need something to go your way, a home game against the Raiders is a good spot to be in.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 over Dallas
When the Giants went up 7-0 on the Eagles on the opening drive on Monday Night Football, and Jon Gruden was talking about how much the Giants’ offense has evolved with Ben McAdoo and how it looked exactly like the Packers’ offense with Aaron Rodgers, I started to think maybe just maybe the Giants would finally realize their potential. I thought this could be it. This could be what Eli Manning and the offense has needed to put them in position to win each week and make them a contender each season. They didn’t score again for the rest of the game, Eli threw two horrible interceptions and the Giants lost 27-7. Instead of being 4-2 and having a 1 1/2-game lead in the NFC East, they’re now 3-3 along with the Eagles, who have the tiebreaker over the Giants thanks to that head-to-head result.

The Giants never make it easy. Never. And they never will. I need to actually fully accept the fact and stop trying to talk myself into thinking they will ever be anything more than the most frustrating team in professional sports. But even knowing they could win or lose each week by 21, if they can’t beat the Cowboys at MetLife with Matt Cassel starting at quarterback, I shouldn’t waste anymore time watching this team.

CAROLINA -3 over Philadelphia
I have doubted Carolina all season, didn’t take them seriously as a true undefeated team and thought they would finally be exposed in Seattle. Well, the Panthers are for real. Any team that can go to Seattle and win, and not only win, but put together three touchdown drives of 80 yards or more is a real threat. Don’t let up now, Panthers. The Giants need you this week. I need you this week.

ARIZONA -9 over Baltimore
The fall of the Ravens has been fun to watch, but I feel like I haven’t appreciated it enough. This Monday I will make sure to soak it all in as I watch the Cardinals rout the Ravens, send them to 1-5 and destroy any glimmer of hope they had to going on some sort of run and making the playoffs.

Last week: 7-7-0
Season: 48-40-3