Blogs – Page 194 – Keefe To The City

Oct 16, 2014

NFL Week 7 Picks

Two steps back, three steps forward, one step back. This picks season feels a lot like the Giants’ season once again.

I feel like the New York Giants once again: two steps back, three steps forward, one step back. After three straight weeks of .500 or better, Week 6 got the best of me thanks to a few decisions that left me open to be second-guessed as bad as Joe Girardi leaves himself open to be.

I made a lot of bad decisions in Week 6 and they all stemmed from me putting trust into clearly untrustworthy situations. Here are some things I trusted last week:

– I trusted Teddy Bridgewater making his second career start with an injured ankle that sidelined him 10 days earlier.

– I trusted Kyle Orton and the Bills against Tom “22-2 (now 23-2) against the Bills” Brady and the Patriots in a game with massive AFC East implications.

– I trusted the Bengals despite them saving the Patriots a week earlier and ruining all the Tom Brady trade rumors, which would have taken over Boston and their season.

– I trusted the one-win Buccaneers against the Ravens because of my hatred for the Ravens.

– I trusted the Falcons, who I said I would never trust again after they blew a 17-point lead in the 2012 NFC Championship Game and cost me a 10-to-1 Championship Weekend parlay.

– I trusted the Chargers over the Raiders even though I never take the Chargers to cover against the Raiders.

– I trusted the New York Football Giants in Philadelphia even though the game had a red flag hanging over it with the sudden expectations and hype being placed on the Giants and their new-and-improved offense.

I wish I could take all of those decisions back, but I can’t and I’m stuck with a 6-9 record from Week 6. But when Bill Belichick answered every question after Week 4 with “We’re on to Cincinnati” it worked out for the Patriots. So I’m not talking anymore about what happened in Week 6. I’m on to Week 7 and let’s hope me saying that is enough to not be sitting here next Thursday wondering why I made a decision like backing a quarterback who lost his job to Tim Tebow three years ago over a three-time Super Bowl champion.

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK JETS +10 over New England Patriots
Yes, no more than 10 seconds ago I said I referenced backing a quarterback who once lost his job to Tim Tebow over a three-time Super Bowl champion and here I am backing a quarterback who lost his job two weeks ago to an unprepared and unmotivated Michael Vick over a three-time Super Bowl champion. Just typing that made me think, “What the eff am I doing?” but I have a weird feeling about this game even if that feeling will likely end up resulting in Jets-Chargers Part II.

INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 over Cincinnati
There are 64 starting quarterbacks and head coaches in the NFL. The Top 5 people I LEAST trust from those 64 in no specific order are Andy Dalton, Marvin Lewis, Geno Smith, Jim Caldwell and Mike Smith. It’s not good when one team has both their coach and quarterback in that five-person mix.

Tennessee +5.5 over WASHINGTON
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans fan or a Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

CHICAGO -3.5 over Miami
Last week, I said:

I’m finally done with the Bears. So it would be appreciated if they would just get blown out at the Georgia Dome and not win and just remain out of my life.

So of course I picked the Falcons and of course the Bears won 27-13 to temporarily save their season and make me rescind my swearing off the Bears for the rest of the season. Here I am, one week after saying I was done picking them, here I am picking them. But that shouldn’t be too hard against a Dolphins team that had their heart ripped out and their 2014 season left on the field after giving up a touchdown with three seconds left against the Packers.

Cleveland -6 over JACKSONVILLE
The Jaguars are 0-6, but their margin of losing has dropped over the last weeks from 31 to 27 to 19 to 8 and then to 2 against the Titans in Week 6. If this pattern keeps up, the Jaguars are either going to lose by 1, tie or beat the Browns this week. However, with the Browns 3-2 and their two losses by a combined five points, I don’t think this is going to be a trap game for Cleveland coming off an impressive and season-saving blowout win over the Steelers. Sorry, Jacksonville, no win this week, but soon. I promise.

Seattle -7.5 over ST. LOUIS
I would like to take this time to thank the Seahawks for their loss to the Cowboys on Sunday. Sure, the loss improved the Cowboys to 5-1, extended their winning streak to five straight, gave them a two-game lead over the Giants and cost me a pick. But like Frank Underwood in House of Cards planting the seeds of an eventual long-term scheme well in advance, this Seahawks loss to the Cowboys was part of something much bigger down the road. Right now, the Cowboys are being called the best team in the league and there is so much hype surrounding them that it’s comparable to the attention they drew during the 2007 season. And like I have said, if the Giants didn’t exist then the Cowboys would be the worst team when playing with expectations. The Cowboys have those expectations now thanks to the Seahawks and it’s only a matter of time until the destruction starts because no Jerry Jones/Jason Garrett/Tony Romo team can be the best team in the NFL.

GREEN BAY -7 over Carolina
Aside from Week 1 when the Panthers played the Buccaneers, I have incorrectly picked every Panthers game, so to say I don’t have a feel for the Panthers would be an understatement. But since Aaron Rodgers told Green Bay to relax, the Packers are 3-0 and have scored 107 points after scoring 47 points in their first three games, so that’s makes me feel a little more comfortable about my pick for a Panthers game.

BALTIMORE -7 over Atlanta
I thought the theory about the Falcons being a home team and a home dome team like the Saints would hold up against the Bears, who couldn’t get out of their own way heading into Week 6, but that theory was undone when the Bears beat them by two touchdowns. Now I’m back to square one with the Falcons and back to the drawing board when it comes to figuring them out and I have nothing. I understand so little about the Falcons (other than that they are a bad team, which is all that really matters) that I’m picking the hated Ravens in a season in which I’m rooting even harder for them to lose than I normally do.

Minnesota +6 over BUFFALO
I said it was a mistake to back Teddy Bridgewater last week in just his second career start coming off an ankle injury, so why is it a good idea to back him this week in his third career start? Because the Bills are coming off their regular-season Super Bowl loss to the Patriots, which was a game that had the chance to shift the power in the AFC and give the Bills the upper hand in the division for the first time in the Brady-Belichick era. And the Bills were run out of their own building in that game, proving that they aren’t ready to the next step as a franchise and become a contender once again. The Bills and Buffalo were up for the Patriots and for a chance to change everything and I don’t think they will Ralph Wilson Stadium is going to have the same feel with the 2-4 Vikings in town.

DETROIT -3 over New Orleans
When you take the Saints out of the Superdome, they lose. The Saints are already 0-3 this year and while Calvin Johnson pulling a Mark Teixeira and saying, “I won’t play until I feel great,” isn’t exactly a strong sign of confidence for Lions fans for not only this week but the season, I can’t take the Saints on the road again. I just can’t.

SAN DIEGO -6 over Kansas City
The Chargers are 5-1, their only loss was a one-point loss (18-17) in Week 1 against in Arizona, they have won five straight and are 3-0 at home, winning by an average of 19.7 points. That’s good enough for me.

New York Giants +6.5 over DALLAS
This is for the season.

Arizona -6 over OAKLAND
The Jets did beat the Raiders in Week 1, but back then, Derek Carr had never played a game in the NFL. As of right now, Week 7, I’m not sure that the Jets are better than the Raiders. What does that have to do with the Cardinals looking to pick up an easy win in their quest to avenge their 10-win postseason-less season from last year? Nothing. I just thought it was worth noting that that the Raiders might be better than the Jets and that would mean the worst team in the NFL is likely either the Jets or the winless Jaguars. Unfortunately, the Jets and Jaguars don’t play each other this season.

DENVER -6.5 over San Francisco
The Broncos are playing in their second of three Sunday Night Football games this year this week. Peyton Manning is 38 years old and is in the third year of a five-year deal with the Broncos. Let’s say he plays out the remaining two years on his deal in 2015 and 2016, when he will be 40, and then retires (though I’m not sure he will retire then). Let’s say the Broncos have three Sunday Night Football games in 2014 and three in 2015. That means, including this week, Peyton has eight Sunday Night Football games left in his career and I’m sure Peyton is aware that the amount of Sunday night primetime games left in his career is dwindling. Peyton Manning lives for these games.

Houston +3.5 over PITTSBURGH
I have no idea how to measure the Steelers and I have no idea what they are as a team. They survived a 24-point comeback by the Browns, were blown out by the Ravens, blew out the Panthers, gave the Buccaneers their only win, barely got past the Jaguars and were routed by the Browns. I’m still laughing at anyone who predicted them to return to the playoffs this season, considering they didn’t improve in the offseason, and while a Ryan Fitzpatrick-led team isn’t exactly a team worth trusting, the Texans are the better option in what should be another Monday Night Football game not worth watching.

Last week: 6-9-0
Season: 43-47-1

Blogs • Rangers

Oct 15, 2014

The Return of Rick Nash

Rick Nash is finally showing everyone why I was willing to trade anyone and everyone for him nearly three years ago at the deadline.

Rick Nash has been the only good thing about the Rangers this season. Sure, the season is only four games old and we are just 4.9 percent of the way through it, but while the defense looks like it’s playing in the Wednesday night 10 p.m. beer league and the Rangers’ goaltending is putting up Rick DiPietro-like numbers, Nash has provided six of the team’s 11 goals and is on pace for 123 goals this season.

I don’t really think Nash is going to not only beat, but completely shatter Wayne Gretzky’s 1981-82 record of 92 goals by 31 goals by averaging 1.5 goals per game for an entire 82-game schedule because that is never, ever happening. Never. Ever. Ever. Ever. Ever. Ever. Ever. Ever. Not for Nash, not for Sidney Crosby, not for Alex Ovechkin, not for Steven Stamkos, not for anyone. But I do realize when something special is happening. I realized after one episode of Friday Night Lights that I was going to spend the next five days watching 50 episodes of a TV show. I realized after hearing Pearl Jam’s “Sirens” last fall for the first time that I was going to listen to it 1,519 times in the next year. I realized after reading The Bobby Orr Story for my summer reading book in middle school that I was going to keep reading it and using it for every summer reading and every book report through junior high school. When I sense something special coming around, it usually happens a lot, and it’s happening with Rick Nash scoring goals.

In 2011-12, Nash’s first season with the Rangers, he didn’t score his sixth goal of the season until the 17th game of the season and last season, he didn’t score his sixth goal of the season until the 15th game. But on Tuesday night against the Islanders when nothing was going right for the Rangers during an absolutely embarrassing third period, Nash scored his sixth goal of the young season after having scored his fifth in the first period.

Six goals and seven points in four games are the numbers I expect from Rick Nash. Well, maybe not “expect” since they project out to be insane figures (123-21-144), but then again, if anyone could score 123 goals and have only 21 assists, it would be Nash, whose entire career has been about having more goals than assists. And that’s what I mean by these are the numbers I expected from Nash. Columbus Nash scored more goals than he had assists in seven of nine seasons and that’s the Rick Nash I expected in New York: at least 30 goals on the low end and 40-plus on the high end. He has nearly given the Rangers that in his first two years when you project his 21 goals in 44 games in 2012-13 and his 26 goals in 65 games in 2013-14 out over 82 games, you get a 39-goal season in 2012-13 and a 33-goal season in 2013-14, which would have been the third- and fifth-best goal seasons of his 11-year career. Unfortunately, there isn’t an asterisk we can put aside his 2012-13 and 2013-14 numbers to denote Gary Bettman’s latest negotiation disaster and concussions as a result of head shots for why Nash didn’t achieve those projected goal totals.

Nash has played 113 regular-season games for the Rangers, scoring 53 goals in those games. That looks like steady production at .47 goals per game and without watching him you might think he is a model for consistent goal scoring in the NHL. But Nash has been anything but consistent as a Ranger, which actually makes him the perfect Ranger.

Let’s look at Nash’s 2012-13 regular season:

In seven games from Jan. 19 to Jan. 31, Nash had one goal (.14 goals per game).

In 12 games from Feb. 2 to March 8, Nash had eight goals (.67 GPG).

In eight games from March 10 to March 24, Nash had one goal (.13 GPG).

In eight games from March 26 to April 8, Nash had seven goals (.86 GPG).

In nine games from April 10 to April 27, Nash had four goals (.44 GPG).

And let’s look at Nash’s 2013-14 season:

In 11 games from Nov. 21 to Dec. 10, Nash had six goals (.55 GPG).

In 11 games from Dec. 12 Jan. 4, Nash had one goal (.09 GPG).

In 11 games from Jan. 6 to Jan. 26, Nash had 11 goals (1.00 GPG).

In 15 games from Jan. 29 to March 16, Nash had two goals (.13 GPG).

In seven games from March 18 to March 30, Nash had five goals (.71 GPG).

In six games from April 1 to April 12, Nash had one goal (.17 GPG).

Nash has admitted he’s a streaky goal scorer and over this first two years with the Rangers, he has owned up to his self evaluation. He scores in spurts and when he does, they aren’t usually in short spurts like the current four-game stretch to open the season. They are usually for a couple of weeks. While his current pace is league-leading and also impossible to keep up, his tendencies over the last two seasons do hint at the idea that this patented Rick Nash hot streak isn’t over yet.

But even if Nash joins the 50-goal club or gets back to his old home in the 40-goal club, ultimately, what he does in the regular season won’t matter for his legacy. Yes, his usual production is needed for the Rangers to actually reach the postseason, but until they get there, nothing Nash does will really matter to those who still don’t believe Henrik Lundqvist can lead a championship team even if he single-handedly carried the Rangers through the Eastern Conference playoffs and did everything but score in overtime in Games 1, 2 and 5 of the Final to prove he is the best goaltender in the world. Nash’s legacy won’t begin to once again be evaluated until the first game of the second season. With a Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy (2003-04), two Olympic gold medals (2010 and 2014), a shoe-in for 400 career goals and on a solid pace for 500 career goals, the only thing left for Nash to do is to have one of his patented hot streaks in the playoffs, prove himself in the postseason and hope that the year he finally puts it together in the spring is part of another Rangers’ Cup run.

I have waited six postseason series for Nash to come around. He didn’t score in seven games against the Capitals. He scored once in five games against the Bruins. He didn’t score in seven games against the Flyers. He didn’t score in seven games against the Penguins. He scored three times against the Canadiens. He didn’t score in five games against Kings. He scored in one of 12 playoff games in 2012-13 and in three of 25 playoff games in 2013-14. I would say somehow the Rangers went 18-19 in the last two postseasons with their best offensive player only scoring three goals in those 27 games, but that “somehow” is Henrik Lundqvist.

I have waited for two-plus years for this Rick Nash, Columbus Rick Nash, the Real Rick Nash to be a Ranger. And after not letting his extended slump negatively impact the rest of his game during the playoffs, he has started off this year better than I or anyone could have imagined or hoped for.

I have waited for that Rick Nash to show New York why I was willing to trade Chris Kreider and the whole farm for him at the 2011-12 trade deadline and now he’s arrived.

Welcome to New York, Rick Nash. It’s good to finally have you here.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Giants

Oct 10, 2014

Everything Is Back to Normal for Giants-Eagles

Last year’s Giants-Eagles games didn’t feel like Giants-Eagles games because the first time they met they were both fighting for to keep their respective seasons alive and the second time they met Matt Barkley was the quarterback of the Eagles. This year, everything is back to normal between the two NFC East rivals.

With the Giants headed to Philadelphia on Sunday night, I did an email exchange with Brandon Gowton of Bleeding Green Nation to talk about the struggles of LeSean McCoy this season, Nick Foles’ first full season as the starting quarterback and what Chip Kelly needs to do to remain popular in Philadelphia.

Keefe: The last time we talked was before Week 5 last season when the Giants were still looking for their first win of the season and the Eagles were 1-3 looking to save their season too. The Eagles won 36-21 and eventually went on to win the NFC East and saved their season, and the Giants fell to 0-5 before falling to 0-6 and eventually finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs for the second straight year.

This season things are different. The Giants are 3-2 and riding a three-game winning streak while the Eagles are 4-1 and tied atop the division with the Cowboys in what is now a very competitive division after being predicted for another down year.

The Eagles have played four games decided by six points or less this season (in their other game they beat the Jaguars 34-17 in Week 1, but they trailed 17-0 at halftime) and have had trouble putting lesser opponents away.

The Eagles are 4-1 and tied for first place, but are you worried about the way they have finished games?

Gowton: It’s really hard to get a good read on this Eagles team. On one hand, they’re 4-1. That’s certainly nothing to scoff at. On the other hand, they still need to play a lot better moving forward. As cliche as it may sound, they have yet to play an entire 60 minutes of football. The consistency just isn’t there yet. Part of that is because two of their most important players are struggling: quarterback Nick Foles and running back LeSean McCoy. Injuries on the team’s offensive line have contributed to these struggles.
There are definitely legitimate concerns with this team. As I said earlier, they need to play better moving forward.

Keefe: Depending on who you ask, LeSean McCoy is arguably the best running back in the NFL. A three-time 1,000-yard rusher coming off a 1,607-yard season last year, in which he averaged 100.4 yards per game, McCoy has rushed for only 273 yards in five games this year, an average of 54.6 yards per game. And on top of that, he’s found the end zone only once.

Two weeks ago against the 49ers, McCoy struggled to get going and finished with 17 yards on 10 carries in the 26-21 loss. With the game on the line and the Eagles faced with third-and-goal from the San Francisco 1, the Eagles threw an incomplete pass and then did the same on fourth-and-goal from the 1. Prior to that third-down situation, McCoy was able to pick up five yards on a run against the strong San Francisco run defense. Maybe McCoy didn’t have it that day and maybe trying to get one yard at the goal line against the 49ers’ goal-line defense wouldn’t have worked out, but how do you not try? It’s LeSean McCoy, not Brandon Jacobs.

What has been wrong with McCoy through the first five games and do you agree with the decisions at the goal line against the 49ers?

Gowton: The problem with running at the goal line there was the offense line just couldn’t get much push for the entire game. Should they have tried at least once? Probably, but it was far from a slam dunk decision.

McCoy’s struggles are something of a mystery. No one expected him to play down to this level. There are a number of factors contributing to McCoy’s mishaps. The most obvious one is Philadelphia’s banged up offensive. The patch-work unit the Eagles have been trotting out is still missing All-Pro left guard and stud center Jason Kelce. Starting right tackle Lane Johnson missed the team’s first four games due to suspension. All of those players are great run blockers. It’s hard to expect backups to play to the same level.

The struggles of Foles also feed into the struggles of McCoy. Teams just aren’t threatened by Foles right now. He’s throwing an inaccurate deep ball and teams would rather sell out on stopping McCoy by loading the box. If Foles steps up and proves to be more of a threat I imagine McCoy would see more running room at times.
McCoy can’t be completely absolved of blame. There are times when he has space or the opportunity to make a defender miss and he just isn’t getting the job done. It’s obvious he’s frustrated.

Keefe: Last season, Nick Foles broke out with 27 touchdowns and two interceptions in leading the Eagles back to the NFC East title and back to the playoffs for the first time in three years. Foles has been good again this season, throwing for over 300 yards in the first three games of the year, but his performance the last two weeks combined against the 49ers and Rams was Mark Sanchez-esque (402 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs).

Sure, Foles was never going to be able to keep up his TD-to-INT ratio of 13.5-to-1, but has his played through the first five weeks of the season been up to your standards of how you thought he would be in his first full season as the starting quarterback?

Gowton: Foles has not played as well as he should have, no. I can’t say I’m totally shocked by his struggles. Despite his impressive numbers in 2013 there were still moments where it felt like he left too many easy plays on the field. That’s exactly what’s happening in 2014, except with more frequency.

There’s no doubt that Foles needs to be better. He’s been very up and down. He’s played five games to this point and only one of them has been good (Week 3 against Washington). That’s simply not acceptable.

Keefe: Chip Kelly went to the Eagles in a favorable situation with the Eagles coming off a 4-12 season and Andy Reid being let go after years of “Should Andy Reid be fired?” dominating the offseason headlines in Philadelphia. In his first season, he led the team to 10-6 record and a playoff appearance despite using three different starting quarterbacks. After Reid was unable to fully utilize all of the talent of the Eagles’ offense, Kelly was able to get the most out of his weapons in a season that would have been lost with other teams due to the quarterback injuries.

From outside Philadelphia, the perception of Kelly seems to be that Eagles fans and the city love him. Outside of the 1-3 start last year, he hasn’t allowed anyone to rethink the team’s decision to let Reid go and he has the Eagles off to their best start since 2006. However, in Philadelphia, like New York, or any sports-crazed city, the mood and approval of a head coach can change and in a hurry if the team isn’t winning and then isn’t winning playoff games and then isn’t winning Super Bowls.

What are your expectations for Kelly and what does he need to do to stay in the good graces of Eagles? Is it another division title? Is it a conference championship game? Is it a Super Bowl?

Gowton: At the very minimum, Kelly and the Eagles need to be actively competing for the division crown late in the season. Anything less would seem like a failure. It wouldn’t result in Kelly’s dismissal; he’s only in the second season of his five-year contract. The ideal goal is at least one playoff win considering the Eagles made it to the dance last year and came close to beating the Saints but were slightly edged out.

Keefe: The Cowboys are going to lose this week. A road game in Seattle is a guaranteed loss for even the league’s elite teams let alone the Cowboys, so they are going to be 4-2 before the Giants and Eagles kick off in Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football. So that means the Giants-Eagles game will decide the situation at the top of the NFC East after six weeks with either a three-way 4-2 tie or the Eagles having a one-game lead over Cowboys and a two-game lead over the Giants.

The Giants haven’t swept the season series from the Eagles since 2007 and for the last three years the season series has been a split. So for me to think the Giants are going to walk into Lincoln Financial on Sunday night and make things easy for me, they aren’t.

What do you expect to happen on Sunday?

Gowton: I honestly think it’s going to be an awesome game. The Eagles-Giants games really lacked the kind of intensity that’s surrounding this game. There’s been trash talk heading into this game. The Eagles will be debuting all-black uniforms for the first time. It’s Sunday Night Football. There’s just a lot of energy and anticipation involved here. I have a hard time believing it’ll disappoint.

I think it’ll be a fairly even match-up. New York is coming into this game hot and Philadelphia will bring their A-game in front of the Philadelphia faithful. Lincoln Financial Field is going to be loud and crazy. This is the closest thing to a playoff atmosphere you’ll get in Week 6 of the regular season. The Birds are on a seven-game win streak while at home and I think they get the job done yet again. Philadelphia wins, 31-27.

Blogs • Rangers

Oct 9, 2014

The Rangers’ Window of Opportunity

On Thursday night, I had the Bruins-Flyers game on, but muted while I recorded Rangers podcasts and it felt weird to be watching hockey after an offseason that felt like 15 minutes. When I was

On Thursday night, I had the Bruins-Flyers game on, but muted while I recorded Rangers podcasts and it felt weird to be watching hockey after an offseason that felt like 15 minutes. When I was done recording, I turned the sound on the game and Doc Emrick’s voice came into my living room and it was the first time I had heard Doc’s voice since he was screaming back on June 13.

“Centering pass flagged down by Greene … Played into traffic though … Starting back up with it now is Martinez in a 3-on-2 … Clifford gave it across … It’s held … And a shot … Save … Rebound … SCORE! … THE STANLEY CUP! … MARTINEZ!”

Benoit Pouliot’s centering pass was stopped by Matt Greene with 5:27 left in the second overtime. At 5:17, Alec Martinez scored the Stanley Cup-winning goal. In 10 seconds, the play to end the Rangers’ 107-game, eighth-month season transpired in what was essentially a perfect execution of a 3-on-2, ending with a goal as a result of a textbook low shot to the far side, which produced an ideal rebound to the forward going hard to the net. You could classify it as beautiful and I would if it didn’t involve ending the Rangers’ season.

Unless your team wins the last game of the entire NHL season, you are likely let down at the conclusion of their year. When your team loses the last game of the entire season and the lasting image from that moment is your franchise all-world goalie, who has been the most important player in the organization for a decade, lying face down on the ice with Alec Martinez and Kyle Clifford celebrating around him as if they had just bagged a Kodiak bear on a hunting trip, you’re not let down, you’re devastated.

The Rangers never gave me time to prepare for the finality of their season and the end of a Stanley Cup run. Sure, I realized that going into both Games 4 and 5 (and any game for the rest of the series) that there was a chance it would be the last game of the season, but they won Game 4 and led Game 5 in the third period. For the final 30 seconds of the second period and the first 7:56 of the third period of Game 5, my mind wasn’t thinking about watching the Rangers’ season end while I was in Los Angeles surrounded by a city waiting to erupt at my expense. My mind was thinking about one thing only: kill the clock. That changed when Marian Gaborik (who is in the conversation as my favorite Ranger ever) tied the game on the power play because of course Marian Gaborik would tie the game against his former team with his postseason-leading 14^th goal. After that goal, for the next 46:47, my mind was back to thinking about finality, knowing that the next shot or any shot could end the season.

You can only miss so many chances to win a game. You can only hit the post so many times, have the puck deflect off a stick on its way to an open net so many times and choke on a breakaway so many times. And when you don’t capitalize on what feels like countless opportunities to win a game (or in this several games of a series), you eventually lose. History will show that the Kings beat the Rangers 4-1 in the 2013-14 Stanley Cup Final, but it didn’t feel like a five-game series. It felt like a seven-game series, which probably had to do with three of the five games going to overtime, two going to double overtime and the Rangers blowing two-goal leads in Games 1 and 2 and blowing a third-period lead in Game 5.

I was always worried that the Rangers would completely waste Henrik Lundqvist’s prime and career by surrounding him with average talent and only a long list of first- and second-round postseason exits would make up his career résumé because when you’re relying solely on your goalie for entire seasons and postseasons, one or two playoff rounds is all you can realistically expect. But I no longer worry about that after last season’s Cup run. Now I worry about Henrik Lundqvist one night standing on the Madison Square Garden ice watching his Number 30 get raised to the rafters with the 2013-14 Final being his one chance at winning the Cup.

It appears as though the front office is worried about that same thing as they have put an emphasis on building a deep organization with young, promising talent and have avoided making the same salary-cap mistakes (Hello, Ryan Callahan) they were making just three years ago (Hello, Brad Richards). Three years ago, there’s no chance Anthony Duclair makes the Rangers’ opening night roster and some veteran player with experience whose low career ceiling has already been set keeps him off the roster and sends him back to juniors. With Duclair (19), J.T. Miller (21), Jesper Fast (22) and Kevin Hayes (22) on the roster, the Rangers have four players 22 years old or younger, two 23-year-olds in Chris Kreider and John Moore and a 25-year-old captain in Ryan McDonagh. The Rangers are the youngest they have been in forever, but their success, at least for this season, will ultimately be decided by how their stars perform and not just Lundqvist and also Martin St. Louis, but their most important offensive player, who just happens to be their highest-paid player at $7.8 million per year.

I lobbied for Rick Nash in New York. I was willing to trade Chris Kreider and the whole farm for him at the 2011-12 deadline to bring him to the No. 1 overall team in the East and try to end what was then an 18-year championship drought. The Rangers didn’t make the move (well, not until July) and lost in the Eastern Conference finals when the lucky-bounce goals stopped being a reliable source for them. And because I’m the president of the Rick Nash Fan Club, I haven’t said a negative thing about Nash through his first two season, 109 regular-season games and 37 postseason games with the Rangers, but that could change. That could change if Nash turns in a lackluster offensive season after his three-goal playoff performance and the Rangers somehow don’t reach the playoffs. I doubt that will happen, so it might not change until the playoffs when Nash will be evaluated like every other high-paid star in New York has been since the start of time.

In the 2011-12 playoffs I kept waiting for Nash to come around. I thought if the Rangers could get by the higher-seeded Capitals and overcome series deficits of 2-0 and 3-2 and win a Game 7 on the road without Nash scoring once in the seven games that they could get by the Bruins if his drought ended in the second round. Nash did score against the Bruins, but only once, and the Rangers lost in five games.

This past postseason, I was once again left waiting for Nash to come around. I thought if the Rangers could get past the Flyers in seven games without Nash scoring, they could beat the Rangers is his drought ended in the second round. And then when he went scoreless in seven games against the Penguins and the team was still able to overcome a 3-1 series deficit, I thought they could beat the Canadiens if his drought ended in the conference finals. Nash scored three goals against the Canadiens and the Rangers won in six games and I thought if he could stay hot for the Cup Final, the Rangers could win it all. He went pointless against the Kings and the Rangers lost in five games. Henrik Lundqvist has continually taken the Rangers as far as any goalie can take a team and even farther than anyone could have imagined a goalie could take an offensive-challenged team and now it’s time for Rick Nash to live up to his name and abilities and past and contract and carry them the rest of the way because I can’t protect him forever.

At the beginning of the playoffs, I knew the Rangers had to get by the Flyers and once they did I thought there was a chance they could beat the Penguins after the Game 1 win on the road. When they were faced with a 3-1 series deficit, I realized the season was likely over and just wanted them to extend it as long as possible. Then when they came back against the Penguins I was ecstatic that they were in the Eastern Conference finals, which seemed impossible a few days prior, and it seemed like the season could be considered successful no matter what happened against the Canadiens. Then when the Rangers routed the Habs in Game 1 and Carey Price went down for the series, I realized they had to win the series. I thought if they could get past the Canadiens and get to the Cup Final, I once again wouldn’t care about the series outcome because they had given me extra weeks of unexpected playoff hockey in a season that was nearly lost after looking like the stereotypical first- or second-round exit Rangers team all year. When they got to the Final and led Games 1 and 2 by two goals before blowing both games, my mindset changed. I wanted the Cup and wanted it desperately because the gap between the Western Conference winner and the Rangers wasn’t as big as everyone had been led to believe and I knew they could win it. And when I started to think back to every bounce and call and break that had to go their way to reach the Final, that hadn’t in the 20 years since since their last Final appearance, I realized it could be another 20 years until they would be in this spot again.

The odds are stacked against the Rangers to get back to Final because they’re stacked against every team when it comes to playing for and winning the Cup. You only get so many seasons in which injuries don’t ruin your year and when every playoff series presents a favorable matchup and when everything breaks right and falls perfectly on the way to playing for the Cup. Last year was one of those seasons for the Rangers and hopefully we won’t have to wait another 20 years for the next one. But I don’t think we will because for the first time in forever, getting back to the Stanley Cup Final doesn’t feel impossible.

Blogs • Giants

Oct 9, 2014

NFL Week 6 Picks

Mike Francesa loves to talk about the “Witching Hour” in the NFL, which according to him, is the period from 3 p.m. until the 1:00 games are over when games in the second half suddenly

Mike Francesa loves to talk about the “Witching Hour” in the NFL, which according to him, is the period from 3 p.m. until the 1:00 games are over when games in the second half suddenly start to turn, not only for wins and losses, but for spread-covering purposes. Week 5 was set up to be the ultimate “Witching Hour” experience with maybe the most games ever having at least a six-point spread in a given week and I was nervous that my picks season could be over once the “Witching Hour” ended on Sunday with still 12 weeks and the postseason left to pick. But I made it.

I made it through Week 5 of the NFL season despite nine games with at least a 6-point spread, seven quarterbacks who entered the season as backups, three rookie quarterbacks, a 1-3 vs. 1-3 matchup in Tampa Bay at New Orleans and the Tom Brady Patriots being a home underdog for one of the only times ever. I feel like I should get a shirt that says “I survived Week 5 of the 2014 NFL season” or at least a bumper sticker to let people know that when it came to my picks in the most challenging week ever I didn’t turn in the same type of performance the Jets did in San Diego. Actually, a bumper sticker wouldn’t be the best idea since I live in New York City and don’t have a car, but maybe I can buy ad space on that giant video board across from Madison Square Garden that keeps reminding me that the MLB Postseason is taking place. I thought a 10-5 week to save my season would be enough for me to get over the fact that I’m living through a second straight postseason-less October, but it hasn’t.

(Home team in caps)

Indianapolis -3 over HOUSTON
After losing the first Thursday Night Football game of the season in Week 2, I have won three straight and once again the Thursday game is my bread and butter the way it was in 2013.

Denver -10 over NEW YORK JETS
I first saw this line at 8. WFAN producer Brian Monzo told me he got it at 7 on our podcast. At the time of the podcast it was at 9. When the podcast was over, it was at 10. I’m not sure if Monzo’s “Bet the mortgage” line on the podcast pushed Vegas over the edge and forced them to make it a TD-and-FG game, but they did and for the first time in 2014, we have a road team getting at least 10 points. I would have taken the Broncos here at -13.5. Monzo told me he would take them -21. So really, 10 points feels like a steal the way a happy hour offering $6 beers feels like a steal and I would have to think this is the elimination pool pick of the week. How can it not be?

After Sunday’s debacle in San Diego, I thought about calling Keefe To The City resident Jets superfan Tim Duff for our third podcast of the year to get his state of the Jets address, but I held off and decided it made more sense to have Duff back on the podcast after this week, after Peyton Manning comes to town. After Peyton, the Jets get the revitalized Tom Brady on a short week on Thursday Night Football. The “hope to be 3-4 and in the playoff hunt” after the six-week gauntlet of Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, San Diego, Denver and New England is no longer a possibility because the Jets aren’t going to win back-to-back games against two of the all-time greats. And the six-week gauntlet has actually been extended since the Bills appear to be a playoff contender, as do the Chiefs and Steelers. Looking at the remaining schedule for the Jets there’s a very real chance they could finish this season on a 15-game losing streak and go 1-15. Please let this happen, Football Gods.

CLEVELAND -2 over Pittsburgh
Just as the Browns were pulling off their biggest comeback in franchise history to potentially save my –way-too-many-team teaser, the Bears were imploding in Carolina, so it didn’t matter. And since it didn’t matter, I wish I hadn’t been rooting for the Browns against the Titans as if they were the Giants because it only further delayed Johnny Manziel becoming the starting quarterback in Cleveland. At 2-2, Manziel isn’t going to be taking Brian Hoyer’s job and after Pittsburgh, the Browns have Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay in consecutive weeks. If the Browns can beat the Steelers and repay them for their devastating Week 1 loss, they could be looking at 6-2 after Week 9. The Browns at 6-2? Is this real life?

Jacksonville +6 over TENNESSEE
The Jaguars nearly covered in Week 5 against what is a bad Steelers team, which is having trouble putting away the worst teams in the league. Over the last four weeks, the Jaguars have lost by 31, 27, 19 and 8, so not only is their margin of losing dropping, but they are getting closer and closer to finally covering and I think this is the week they finally do it. The Titans have lost four straight and their lost last week involved blowing a 25-point lead to the Browns. Let me repeat that: last week involved blowing a 25-point lead to the Browns. Not only is blowing a 25-point lead at home absolutely demoralizing, but blowing it against the Browns, who have only ever been on the wrong end of losses like that in their franchise’s history, is season-crushing.

Green Bay -3.5 over MIAMI
This has all the makings of a trap with the Packers putting together back-to-back dominant performances, but I understand the impact of a team coming off a bye and a 14-day break for the Dolphins after their trip to London. If it is a trap, I’m falling for it and I don’t care.

MINNESOTA +2 over Detroit
In Week 5, with both Teddy Bridgewater and Matt Cassel injured, the Vikings signed quarterback Chandler Harnish, who had just been signed to the team’s practice squad earlier in the same week, for their Thursday night game against the Packers. Harnish was the last pick in the 2012 NFL Draft (253rd overall) and after spending two seasons with the Colts, I’m sure he realized he would probably never get into an NFL game. But then there was Christian Ponder in Green Bay playing quarterback like someone who had won a pregame sweepstakes while tailgating in the parking lot outside Lambeau Field and I have to think that Harnish thought he would get his chance to get into a game, but he never did.

I’m not sure why Harnish wasn’t given a chance with the Vikings eventually losing the game by 32 points. What’s the worst that could have happened? They would have lost by more? Is there something meaningful to losing by 32 rather than 42? At least if Harnish had gotten into the game maybe Mike Zimmer would have seen something from the former last pick and enough to possibly have a better option than Ponder on his roster if it ever comes to Ponder needing to start another game in the future. But no, Christian Ponder is still on the Vikings and still in the NFL and the chance still exists that he might get to play once again in the future.

CINCINNATI -7 over Carolina
Hey, Cincinnati, umm what the eff was that? Thanks for letting the Patriots up off the mat and saving their season from spiraling out of control and from dividing the locker room and front office in New England and from having Boston sports radio field endless calls about benching or trading Tom Brady.

The only good thing to come out of Sunday night was listening to the Gillette Stadium crowd chant “BRA-DY! BRA-DY! BRA-DY!” as if he was Rudy Ruettiger trying to get into his first career game instead of a three-time Super Bowl champion winning a home game. I thought it was the lowest point in history for Patriots fans until NBC showed the “We Still Believe in Brady” sign. I guess 10 years is a long time to not win a championship.

BUFFALO +3 over New England
I was wrong about the Bengals going into Foxboro and ripping the hearts out of Gillette Stadium and putting the Patriots in a place they haven’t been since 2002. But I wasn’t wrong about the Patriots’ dynasty crumbling. It’s still happening, it just took a week off thanks to the combination of Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton and a defense that looked like they had seen a screening of the 30 for 30 about the Boston College point-shaving scandal and decided to start their own by allowing 220 rushing yards and 505 total yards.

I do realize that I’m asking Kyle Orton to win a second straight game, or at least be the starting quarterback of a team looking for its second straight win since the Bills didn’t win in Week 5, but rather Alex Henery lost the game for the Lions. But maybe, just maybe there is some magic in Buffalo with Kyle Orton getting another chance to be the starting quarterback of an NFL team. And yes, I just used the theory of “magic” for my reasoning on why I’m picking the Bills to cover against the Patriots.

TAMPA BAY +3.5 over Baltimore
Last week I talked about how the Ravens just keep winning and things keep going their way despite the Ray Rice situation and how they have handled it from the start. I hoped things would start to go south for the Ravens with their trip to Indianapolis, but losing 20-13 in Indianapolis isn’t good enough for me. But you know what is? A loss to the Buccaneers.

San Diego -7.5 over OAKLAND
I usually take the Raiders and the points against the Chargers, but this isn’t the usual situation. The Chargers might be the best team in the NFL and the Raiders might be the worst though I’m sure the Jaguars and Jets would like to at least be part of the conversation. Think about this: the Jets couldn’t get the ball over midfield against the Chargers last week and lost 31-0 and the Jets beat the Raiders. Knowing that, how can you take the Raiders even if a home team getting a touchdown at home in the NFL is supposedly great value?

ATLANTA -3 over Chicago
I finally quit the Bears. After they were barely able to hang on against the Jets in Week 3, I said I wouldn’t pick them against the Packers in Week 4. But then it came time for the Week 4 picks and I picked the Bears +1.5 over the Packers and Bears lost 38-17 despite leading 21-17 and I said I wouldn’t pick them in Week 5 against the Panthers. But then it came time for the Week 5 Picks and I picked the Bears +2.5 over Carolina and the Bears lost 31-24 despite leading 21-7 and I said I wouldn’t pick them in Week 6 against the Falcons. Well, here we are and I have strongly considered picking the Bears +3 in Atlanta and I really want to pick them, but I’m not going to. I’m finally done with the Bears. So it would be appreciated if they would just get blown out at the Georgia Dome and not win and just remain out of my life.

SEATTLE -8 over Dallas
The difference between a 10-6 season and a 6-10 season could be traced back to a couple of plays over the year and right now all of those season-changing plays are going the Cowboys’ way. After overcoming a 21-point deficit in St. Louis in Week 3, the Cowboys managed to hold on against the Texans in Week 5 with an overtime win. Both of those outcomes are bad for the Giants because this isn’t the old days when the NFC East would send three teams to the playoffs and with just two teams between the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles going to the postseason this year, if the Giants are going to make it, they are going to need the Cowboys to start being on the other end of close games. A trip to Seattle won’t be close for Cowboys, but it will bring them a much-needed loss before their Week 7 meeting with the Giants at MetLife.

ARIZONA -3.5 over Washington
It was weird to hear Jon Gruden refer to his brother as “Jay Gruden” during Monday Night Football. I understand that maybe not everyone watching is informed that the voice on the TV is related to the head coach of the Redskins, but try referring to your brother by his full name the next time you are talking about him.

The Redskins are in a bad place right now. Kirk Cousins hasn’t been able to keep the team afloat and now after three straight losses, their season is in a free fall and it will be long over by the time RG III returns.

New York Giants +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
The Giants are back! Three straight wins all by double digits and three straight games of scoring at least 30 points. Do you know how many times the Giants scored 30 points last season? Once. In Week 1 against the Cowboys, the Giants scored 31 in their 36-31 loss and then never scored more than 27 in a game. The last time the Giants scored at least 30 points in three straight games was back in Weeks 9-12 (four weeks) in 2008 and that streak came to an end when the Giants scored 23 in a 23-7 win over the Redskins in their first game following Plaxico Burress’ night out at Latin Quarter.

I have to admit I was skeptical about the Giants’ offense after a rough preseason and an embarrassing Week 1 loss. But Ben McAdoo has proved me and I think everyone wrong and I can now stop secretly wishing I hadn’t said and written and tweeted so many bad things about Kevin Gilbride over the years. In fact, I can keep saying and writing and tweeting bad things about his third-and-7 draw plays.

Even after the Giants’ poor 0-2 start, they are a win in Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football from at least having sole possession of second place in the NFC East and a win and Cowboys’ loss to the Seahawks (a very likely loss) from being tied for first place. The Giants are back! (I do realize by me saying, “The Giants are back!” I have now placed expectations on them and that’s the worst thing anyone can do to the New York Football Giants.)

San Francisco -3.5 over ST. LOUIS
In back-to-back weeks the Rams have had a chance to help the Giants out with the NFC East standings, but they fell short both times, losing to the Cowboys 34-31 and the Eagles 34-28. I just hope the Rams aren’t saving their NFC East wins for when they play the Giants in Week 16, which would totally eff up the Giants’ postseason chances and end up being the icing on the cake in the latest Tom Coughlin era second-half collapse.

Last week: 10-5-0
Season: 37-38-1