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Tigers Take After Yankees with Big-Money, Free-Agent Spending

The Yankees leave cold New York for even colder Detroit where there’s snow in the forecast at Comerica Park and a powerful offense coming off a season-opening three-game sweep.

Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander

After losing in miserable fashion in miserable weather on Opening Day at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees bounced back to win the final two games of the series against the Astros. Now the Yankees leave cold New York for even colder Detroit where there’s snow in the forecast at Comerica Park.

With the Yankees in Detroit for a three-game series, Rob Rogacki of Bless You Boys joined me to talk about the contracts for Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, the free-agent spending on Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmerman and if the Tigers will return to the postseason.

Keefe: When I looked at the Tigers’ payroll for this season and $198 million, I was surprised when you consider they have lost or traded Max Scherzer, David Price, Prince Fielder and Yoenis Cespedes in the last couple years. But I admire what Mike Ilitch does with the Tigers and his willingness to spend and overspend his money to try and bring in the best players to win a championship for Detroit. Let’s take a look at some of that money.

Justin Verlander had a no-hitter going on Opening Day before eventually earning a no-decision. Verlander is coming off of an injury-plagued 20-start season last year, which came after his worst season (4.54 ERA) since 2008. He just turned 33 years old and is owed $28 million this season, $28 million in 2017, $28 million in 2018, $28 million in 2019 and a $20 million vesting option in 2020.

After watching what CC Sabathia has become over the last three years after he was a dominant ace for so long, I can relate to what Tigers fans are either going through or inevitably going to go through with Verlander.

Were you in favor of the seven-year, $180 million extension he signed three years ago?

Rogacki: There is always a certain level of concern when locking up a player for that long, especially when the Tigers were a couple years from the contract even kicking in when he initially signed the deal. However, Verlander was the best pitcher in baseball when he signed the deal, and keeping a Hall of Fame caliber player in Detroit for his entire career means more to this city than just his on-field performance.

While Verlander’s recent down-turn makes his $28 million price tag look like a payroll anchor, it hasn’t stopped Mike Ilitch from continuing to spend on payroll. I have been advocating for a couple years now that Verlander’s struggles were injury-related, and his strong finish to 2015 (and sharp debut in 2016) are reinforcing that belief. He may not be the best pitcher in baseball anymore, but Verlander is still capable of going toe-to-toe with anyone on his best day.

I’m still not sure what to expect from this Tigers team, but their first three games have been promising. We know that they will hit, especially if Victor Martinez remains as healthy as he looks so far. When healthy, this team is the most talented club in the division.

That’s the key, though. Health. The Tigers have struggled with injuries over the past couple years, and lost Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Anibal Sanchez, and Justin Verlander to the disabled list at times last season. All four are crucial to the Tigers’ chances this season, and if they falter again, this team could once again find itself looking up at the Royals in the AL Central.

I said that the Tigers would go 85-77 on our site a week ago, and haven’t seen enough to change that prediction yet.

Keefe: When it comes to Miguel Cabrera, we’re talking about even more money. He’s owed $28 million this season and next, $30 million from 2018-2 and $32 million in in 2022-23 with $30 million club options in 2024 and 2025.

Cabrera has been the best hitter of this generation and has led the league in hitting in four of the last five years, including last year. When the Tigers signed Cabrera to the eight-year, $248 million extension two years ago, I agreed with it and I still do. If Robinson Cano could get $240 million then Cabrera is worth double that. And if you’re not going to pay Miguel Cabrera, who are you going to pay?

What were and are your thoughts on the Cabrera deal?

Rogacki: Like you said, if you’re going to give any player in the game $240 million, handing that money to one of the best hitters in our generation seems like a safe bet. Cabrera has stayed productive through a few injury-riddled seasons recently, but is coming off of his first healthy offseason since 2012-2013. As we saw on Friday, he is still one of the elite contact and power hitters in the game, capable of driving the ball to all fields. His contract is somewhat of a necessary evil, but Tigers fans have embraced him as their own, and he will be revered for decades, whether or not he eventually brings home a championship.

Keefe: Five years ago, it looked like Justin Upton might be the best young player in baseball. He hasn’t kept up that production and has fallen off a bit, but he’s still only 28 years old (he turns 29 in August).

The Tigers gave him a six-year, $132.75 million deal this offseason to be their left fielder and the fill the middle-of-the-order production they lost when they traded Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets.

What were your thoughts on the Upton deal?

Rogacki: Maybe this is a homer-ish answer, but I thought Upton’s contract was the best big-money deal signed last offseason. Not only was he a necessary move for a club that otherwise planned to start Tyler Collins in left field, but the Tigers gave him an opt-out clause after two years, a “get out of jail free” card of sorts for their payroll. While the final numbers (six years, $132.75 million) look gaudy, this will ultimately turn into a two-year, $44 million contract for a slugger in the prime of his career.

Keefe: Also this offseason, the Tigers gave five years and $110 million to Jordan Zimmermann to fill the void in the rotation left by Max Scherzer before last season and by David Price after they traded him to the Blue Jays at last year’s deadline.

Zimmermann has spent his entire seven-year career in the National League. Does giving that much money to someone who has never pitched with regularity in the American League worry you?

Rogacki: Zimmermann’s history in the National League doesn’t worry me as much as his injury history. He is the first person in baseball history to receive a $100 million contract after having Tommy John surgery, and the Tigers don’t have an opt-out clause in his deal to escape that contract.

Luckily, Zimmermann’s deal is relatively modest compared to some of the massive deals that were signed this offseason. He’s a fair margin better than Jeff Samardzija, who signed for $90 million in San Francisco, or Wei-Yin Chen, who got $80 million from the Marlins. If he can stay healthy for the entirety of his deal, the Tigers will be in great shape.

Keefe: Last season was the first since 2010 that the Tigers didn’t make the playoffs and their first losing season (74-87) since 2008. After dominating the AL Central for the last few years, it’s seemingly become the Royals’ division with everyone else jockeying for position behind them.

What are your expectations for the Tigers this season?

Rogacki: I’m still not sure what to expect from this Tigers team, but their first three games have been promising. We know that they will hit, especially if Victor Martinez remains as healthy as he looks so far. When healthy, this team is the most talented club in the division.

That’s the key, though. Health. The Tigers have struggled with injuries over the past couple years, and lost Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Anibal Sanchez, and Justin Verlander to the disabled list at times last season. All four are crucial to the Tigers’ chances this season, and if they falter again, this team could once again find itself looking up at the Royals in the AL Central.

I said that the Tigers would go 85-77 on our site a week ago, and haven’t seen enough to change that prediction yet.

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Another Opening Day Debacle

Opening Day looked exactly like the wild-card game for the Yankees, as once again, both Masahiro Tanaka and the offense weren’t good enough.

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros

The coldest I have ever been at Yankee Stadium wasn’t for a Yankees game. It was for the Rangers-Islandes outdoor game on Jan. 29, 2014. Yes, an outdoor game … in late January … at night.

Even though my feet were frozen when the Zamboni came on after the first period and my $11 beer had turned to slush well before that and my fingers and toes were so cold that I stood in the corner of my apartment shower an hour after the game ended trying to avoid the hot water that caused the same sting sensation when both of your legs fall asleep and it hurts too much to move them, it was worth it. It was worth it because at least the Rangers won the game. They made sitting outside for three hours at the end of January for a game in which the play was so far away the puck wasn’t visible and having to freeze through intermission performances from Cee-Lo Green worth it. Because they won.

On Tuesday at the Stadium, it was freezing. Not as cold as that Rangers-Islanders game, but as cold as it could be for an April afternoon baseball game and colder than any of the previous Opening Day and Opening Night (2005) games I have sat through. With a chance to start the season with a win for the first time since 2011 and avenge the wild-card game to the same Dallas Keuchel and the Astros, the Yankees basically just continued the end of the 2015 season.

Outside of Starlin Castro’s two-run double in the second inning, the Yankees managed just three hits off of Keuchel once again with a fourth coming on a Didi Gregorius home run in the ninth in a failed comeback attempt. That’s right, a second baseman who can hit! The Yankees might have been able to use that last season when they were wasting 532 plate appearances between Stephen Drew and Brendan Ryan. Castro’s two-run double was almost enough for me to forgive Joe Girardi for hitting him eighth, one spot behind Chase Headley and six spots behind Aaron Hicks, but it wasn’t. The Yankees’ lineup against right-handed pitching needs to change and it needs to change now.

But outside of my usual Girardi lineup complaints, Masahiro Tanaka was his usual former ace self, blowing a two-run lead and lasting just 5 2/3 innings. Chasen Shreve looked like pre-September Shreve before Dellin Betances blew the game with a leadoff walk to Jose Altuve and an errant throw into Carlos Correa’s back down the first-base line. Jacoby Ellsbury and Headley combined to go 0-for-7 with three strikeouts, and after Ellsbury whined his way into this lineup way back in October, it Brett Gardner sitting Opening Day out in the same situation as the one-game playoff. But it didn’t matter that it was Gardner sitting out because when he got his chance, he struck out in his only at-bat when he pinch-hit for the hitless Hicks.

The offense was basically non-existent, the starting pitching wasn’t good enough and the bullpen couldn’t be the invincible bullpen it needs to be to make sure this season doesn’t end up as bad as 2013 and 2014 or as disappointing as 2015. It was every preseason negative fear about this team squeezed into one game. Thankfully it’s just that: one game.

There are 161 to go, but the off day tomorrow before Game 2 is going to feel as long as the six-month offseason, which just ended.

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Yankees-Astros Opening Day Is Wild-Card Game Part II

Opening Day for the Yankees will be a repeat of the wild-card game as they host the Astros with Masahiro Tanaka on the mound against Dallas Keuchel. Let’s just hope the 2016 season doesn’t being with the same result the 2015 season ended with after the Yankees were shut out at home.

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros

Opening Day for the Yankees will be a repeat of the wild-card game as they host the Astros with Masahiro Tanaka on the mound against Dallas Keuchel. Let’s just hope the 2016 season doesn’t being with the same result the 2015 season ended with after the Yankees were shut out at home.

With the Yankees and Astros opening the 2016 season on Monday in the Bronx, Ryan Dunsmore of The Crawfish Boxes joined me to talk about the wild-card game, the Astros having a true ace once again in Dallas Keuchel, watching the development of Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa and what the expectations for the Astros are following their successful season.

Keefe: I knew the Yankees were going to lose the wild-card game and every Yankees fan should have known it. Not only had the team limped to the finish line at the end of the season and blown a sizable lead in the division to the Blue Jays after the trade deadline, but they were dominated by Dallas Keuchel in June and August. In those two starts, both wins, here was Keuchel’s combined line: 16 IP, 9 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 21 K.

Sitting in Yankee Stadium during the wild-card game and watching Keuchel once again shut the Yankees down, allowing just three hits over six shutout innings with a walk and seven strikeouts was devastating. I thought if the Yankees could get Keuchel out of the game relatively early, which they did, that they could come back against the Astros’ weak bullpen, but they couldn’t even do that.

Through Keuchel’s first 47 games and 38 starts in the majors over 2012 and 2013, he was 9-18 with a 5.20 ERA. In the last two years, he’s gone 32-17 with a 2.69 ERA and won the AL Cy Young last season. After having the Roger Clemens-Andy Pettitte-Roy Oswald era and then going through a serious starting pitching drought in Houston, what’s it like to have that true ace again?

Dunsmore: It has been an absolute joy to have an ace back on the team, especially because it is Dallas Keuchel. As you referenced, Keuchel wasn’t expected to be a star at the end of those turbulent years he was pitching out of the bullpen. But he was worked his butt off perfecting his location and learning the “art of pitching”.

Keuchel will never be a flamethrower, he sits around the high 80s and the upper 90s. But what he does best is keeping the ball down and reading the batter’s swing. The scary part is that type of game translates well as Keuchel ages.

Keuchel is the perfect fit for this young, energetic team and the beard helps in the same city with James Harden.

Keefe: The Astros won Game 1 of the ALDS against the Royals. They had a 4-1 lead in Game 2 before losing 5-4. They won Game 3. They had 6-2 lead in Game with six outs to go before giving up seven runs and losing 9-6, and they had a 2-0 lead in Game 5 before eventually losing 7-2.

Were you upset after the Astros’ season came to an end, considering they held a lead in all five games and were six outs away from advancing in Game 4. Or because this version of the Astros arrived early, were you OK with the way the season ended since the team did reach the postseason and did win the wild-card game?

Dunsmore: I admit I was upset the Astros dropped the game for one reason and one reason only: the Royals didn’t hit the ball hard during the comeback during Game 4. Kansas City dinked and dunked its way to setting up the comeback. That is not to take away with the Royals, they battled in each at-bat and found a way to win.

You’re correct in your second part of the question. The ALDS loss gave the Astros experience, experience the team desperately needed. The loss will linger in the back of their minds, but losses fuel good teams like the Royals were fueled by the World Series loss the year before.

Keefe: I remember what it was like to have a first-round draft pick and shortstop finally get to the majors and be everything you imagined he would be. Carlos Correa, the 2012 first overall pick, burst onto the scene when he was called up to the Astros last season, hitting .279/.345/.512 with 22 home runs and 68 RBIs in just 99 games. He won the AL Rookie of the Year and became a catalyst at the top of the lineup for the Astros.

Correa won’t be 22 until September and is already one of the best players in the majors. Even though you had to suffer through nine postseason-less seasons, and four straight 92-plus loss seasons before last year, you’ve made it through to the other side and now get to reap the benefits of star young players. It’s easy to say it was worth it now, but when you were going through the last decade as an Astros fan, did you think you would get to see this day?

Dunsmore: I don’t think I’m a good example for your average Astros fan, I continued to watch 92-plus loss teams. So it did make things sweeter to see Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow’s plan “The Process” come full circle. It is really satisfying to see a team build a winner with prospects. The Crawfish Boxes staff has been able to watch prospects come through the system to now become key cogs in the Astros playoff team. There is more investment.

Your average Houston fan checked out for six years and didn’t come back until the final months of last season. As is the case with Houston sports not called football.

Keefe: It’s very rare that I truly like non-Yankees players, but Jose Altuve is one of those players, and he’s easily my favorite non-Yankee in the majors. To do what he does at 5-foot-6 and 165 lbs. (both of which seem like a stretch) is amazing. A career .305 hitter and three-time All-Star in five seasons, Altuve had been one the bright spot on some awful Astros teams. It seems like he’s been in the league for a decade, but he’s still just 25 and won’t turn 26 until May 6.

How long did it take you to realize how good someone of that stature could be?

Dunsmore: It honestly didn’t take long to fall in love with Jose Altuve. You can see the hustle at every moment he is on the field. He doesn’t have a gear lower than 100 percent.

He was originally told by an Astros scout to go home during international tryouts, but he returned the next day to win a contract. I think the Astros front office has to know how special Jose Altuve is since that day.

That is why the Astros have pushed him through minors from Double-A to the majors in 2011. He’s shown the hustle that everyone loves since he was still wearing those terrible black and brick uniforms.

Keefe: Last year, the Astros won the second wild card, beat the Yankees in the Bronx and had nearly beat the defending AL champions and eventual World Series champions in the ALDS. But seemingly every team in every sport suffers a devastating loss before they can eventually win and maybe what happened in Game 4 of the ALDS ends up being the Astros’ devastating loss.

The Astros were supposedly ahead of schedule with their success last season and now that the team has once again had success and has reached the postseason, their youth has experience in big spots and they’re no longer a team on the rise.

After the team’s success last season and now that they are the favorite to win the AL West, what are your expectations for the 2016 Astros?

Dunsmore: I expect the Astros to make the playoffs. I won’t say they are AL favorites or World Series favorites. The team seems like a few developing prospects (flash to A.J. Reed and Colin Moran) away from winning it all. The pitching staff has a high floor, but isn’t blowing anyone away if Lance McCullers is on the shelf for a long time.

If Houston wins the division, I will be happy and roll the dice from there.

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David Ortiz Is the Last Player Who Should Get a Standing Ovation at Yankee Stadium

There’s only one way David Ortiz should leave the Yankee Stadium field for the last time and it’s certainly not with a standing ovation from the fans that should that should have no reason to like him.

David Ortiz

David Ortiz wants a standing ovation at Yankee Stadium. Mark Teixeira wants to play five more years until he’s 40 with the Yankees. Now I’m just waiting for CC Sabathia to say he wants his contract extended to top off the unfathomable comments from the opening days of spring training. But even if Sabathia did announce he wants more than the two years and $50 million owed to him over the next two years, it wouldn’t be as ridiculous as Ortiz’s comments.

“You know what I want most of all?’ I would love it if the fans at Yankee Stadium gave me a standing ovation.’’

After first hearing this, I thought it was said in jest, that Ortiz said it with a big smile on his face and then burst out into laughter in the Red Sox’ clubhouse with his teammates also laughing and Dustin Pedroia high-fiving him for the joke. But he wasn’t kidding and it wasn’t said in a sarcastic or joking manner. David Ortiz truly wants a standing ovation from Yankees fans.

Since 2003, Ortiz has been the biggest Yankee killer. He might be the biggest ever. More so then George Brett or Ken Griffey Jr. or Bengie Molina or Delmon Young. He led the Red Sox’ offense in the 2004 ALCS to overcome a 3-0 deficit in that series (or so I have been told since I don’t remember that series ever happening) after trying to single-handedly win Game 7 against them in the ALCS the year before. He has gotten big hit after big hit against them for 13 years and has been the face of the Red Sox’ resurgence over that time, representing the franchise’s best era in nearly a century.

The idea that the Yankees should do for Ortiz in 2016 what the Red Sox did for Mariano Rivera in 2013 and Derek Jeter in 2014 — the two players Ortiz said he would never act like upon his own retirement by announcing it early — is an incredible line of thinking. Rivera, the best closer ever, and Jeter, a once-in-a-generation icon, represented the game with integrity, played the game clean and never put baseball in a negative light. They didn’t call the city they play in a “shithole” the way Ortiz once called Boston because he was playing for a losing team. They never bullied an official scorer over RBIs. They didn’t enter spring training for the better part of their careers complaining about their current contracts and demanding more money. And they never used performance-enhancing drugs.

David Ortiz used performance-enhancing drugs. He was on the 2003 list that was never supposed to surface the same way Alex Rodriguez was. He was forced to hold a press conference at Yankee Stadium in August 2009 to address the issue and at that conference he said, “I never thought buying supplements was going to hurt somebody’s feelings. If that happened, I’m sorry about it.” But for some reason, Ortiz’s checkered past and off-the-field issues haven’t follow him around, and Mike Francesa was right when he called Ortiz, “one of the great con men in sports.” I have never cared about performance-enhancing drug use in baseball, and I realize I’m in the minority, but if some PED users are going to be vilified for cheating then all of them should be, and Ortiz is one of them.

The Red Sox never should have held ceremonies or given gifts to Rivera and Jeter and their fans never should have given them a standing ovation in their final games at Fenway Park. They were wrong to start this line of honoring the other team’s stars and to damage the fading rivalry a little more. What’s next in the demolition of the rivalry? Fenway Park asking Yankees fans and Red Sox fans to join hands for the singing of “Sweet Caroline” during the eighth inning, so I can yell, “BUM! BUM! BUM!” with drunk college girls in pink and camouflage Red Sox hats that don’t know who Mo Vaughn is let alone Derek Lowe, Bill Mueller or Keith Foulke.

For nearly 20 years, Rivera and Jeter were booed every time they stepped on the field at Fenway, were the subject of T-shirts on Brookline Ave. that would horrify your grandparents, were the main characters in nightmares for Red Sox fans and were the most hated men in Boston. The difference between those two and Ortiz is that Rivera and Jeter were hated in Boston, but they were respected as players. The same can’t be said for Ortiz in New York.

I have hated David Ortiz (the baseball player for the Red Sox, not the man) for the last 13 years and I will hate David Ortiz (the baseball player for the Red Sox, not the man) for a 14th year this season. But while Ortiz has hurt the Yankees numerous times, both in the regular season and postseason, he has been the perfect Red Sox player to represent them against the Yankees and is now the last member of the 2000s era of the rivalry along with A-Rod. For that, I will miss his presence in this rivalry, which needs more players like Ortiz and A-Rod and less players like Pablo Sandoval and Chase Headley.

David Ortiz shouldn’t even want a standing ovation from Yankees fans. He should want his final moment in front of them to be like all the other moments before. Yankees fans hating and booing David Ortiz up until he takes his last step off the Yankee Stadium field is how he should be honored.

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The State of the Yankees’ Rotation: Pitchers and Catchers Edition

The Yankees’ rotation is once again an unknown for the fourth straight season, so I decided to write one question about each of the Yankees’ six starting pitchers in honor of them reporting to Tampa.

Luis Severino

Baseball is back! Well, kind of. Pitchers and catchers reporting means the new season has officially started though it’s also just a tease that baseball is truly back with six weeks of meaningless baseball ahead and February and the winter gauntlet still upon us. But with temperatures in the minus-double digits over the last week with the wind chill, any sign of baseball and spring and is a welcome sight.

The Yankees’ spring training opened and with it came the barrage of beat writer tweets marveling at the height and build of new Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman as if no one seemed to know that a guy who throws 105 mph would be so big and so strong. It opened with Joe Girardi being peppered with questions about the unknown playing status of Chapman as well as the lingering injury issues surrounding nearly the entire rotation. And it opened with me wondering about how good this Yankees pitching staff is or can be or if it will be any good at all.

We know the bullpen isn’t going to be good, but rather great. It has to be. If the Yankees’ bullpen doesn’t live up to the hype then nothing else matters because this team isn’t going anywhere without the best bullpen in baseball. The rotation, on the other hand, is once again an unknown for the fourth straight season, so let’s focus there. I decided to write one question about each of the Yankees’ six starting pitchers in honor of them reporting to Tampa.

Number 47, Ivan Nova, Number 47

Who are you?

I know you’re Ivan Manuel (Guance) Nova, born Jan. 12, 1987 and signed by the Yankees as an amateur free agent in 2004. But I mean who are you as a pitcher?

Are you the Ivan Nova that pitched decently in 10 games and seven starts near the end of the 2010 season? Are you the Ivan Nova that went 16-4 with a 3.70 ERA in 2011, shut down the Tigers in Game 1 (but kind of Game 2) in the 2011 ALDS and look like you might be a future front-end starter? Are you the Ivan Nova that went 12-8 with a 5.02 ERA in 2012 and gave up five earned runs or more in nine of 28 starts? Are you the Ivan Nova that pitched his way back to Triple-A at the beginning of 2013 only to return on July 5 and pitch to a 2.59 ERA over his next 15 starts (104 1/3 innings)? Are you the Ivan Nova that had an 8.27 ERA after four starts in 2014 before needing Tommy John surgery? Are you the Ivan Nova that returned in 2015 and went 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA in 17 starts?

The Yankees brought back Nova because they are hoping he can be the pitcher he was in 2011 and the second half of 2013 now that he’s a full season removed from Tommy John surgery and it’s not the worst gamble they ever made. Unfortunately, if the other five starters stay healthy in spring training (and that might be the biggest “if” of all time), Nova is the odd man out and I don’t know what happens to him when it comes to a roster spot. He isn’t suited a long-relief role where the appearances are infrequent and where he wouldn’t be stretched out enough to spot start once an inevitable injury to the other four happens. So I think that could mean he begins the season in Triple-A, which isn’t the worst thing. Like Nova said this month, “I’m a starting pitcher, not a reliever,” and the Yankees should abide by that.

It’s been four-plus years since I thought Nova could be really good and two-plus years since I thought that again. After six seasons as the poster boy for inconsistent, this is likely his last chance with the Yankes to remove that label.

Number 52, CC Sabathia, Number 52

Did you figure out how to “pitch” yet?

Once again, CC Sabathia’s supposed best friend is Cliff Lee, and once again, CC Sabathia spent four seasons with Andy Pettitte. So how is that he hasn’t figured how to pitch like his best friend and longtime teammate and get people out with diminished velocity? How is it that Sabathia still thinks he can pull a mid-to-high-90s fastball out of his back pocket to escape a jam like the old days?

I know CC Sabathia is done. I wrote about it last June and again a little over a week ago. I know he’s never going to be the pitcher he was in 2009 or 2010 or 2011 or 2012, but is it too much to ask of him to just not be the pitcher he was in 2013 (14-13, 4.78 ERA), 2014 (3-4, 5.28 ERA) and 2015 (6-10, 4.73 ERA)?

Maybe after three seasons and 69 starts of being unable to accept the fact that 95 mph and 96 mph and 97 mph are no longer options, and really, 90 mph and 91 mph are often not options either, maybe this is the year that Sabathia learns how to get people out without an overpowering fastball. If it isn’t and if he can’t, well, we’re looking at a fourth straight bad season from the former ace, and if his left shoulder stays healthy, we’ll see it again in 2017 for another $25 million.

The Yankees don’t need Sabathia to be what he once was or even close to it. They just can’t have him ruining the season like he nearly did last year of the way Phil Hughes did in 2013 (14 losses). If Sabathia was able to stay in the rotation last year over Adam Warren despite winning more two games in a month only twice then it’s obvious he’s going to be in the rotation no matter what and the Yankees can’t afford to have him lay an egg or destroy the bullpen every five days.

I would sign up for an above-.500 record and 4.50 ERA from Sabathia right now because it’s better than anything he’s done in the last three seasons and it’s certainly better than anything anyone should expect from him this season. Give me a season of 6 IP/3 ER starts and I’m more than happy.

Number 30, Nathan Eovaldi, Number 30

Have you realized you throw 100 mph?

Nathan Eovaldi’s first season in the Bronx wasn’t as bad as I make it out to be. He did go 14-3 with a 4.20 ERA, but what I hate about him is that he struck out 121 in 154 1/3 innings. How is it possible that a guy who can throw 100 mph for an entire game (and when I say game I mean a Nathan Eovaldi-pitched game, which is 5 1/3 innings), but can’t strike anyone out? At least Phil Hughes had an excuse when he would get ahead 0-2 and then throw nine more pitches in at-bat and that excuse was that he was throwing 92. Eovaldi is throwing 98-99-100 with every fastball and can’t put hitters away. It’s a waste of talent and a waste of an arm and it’s the reason Eovaldi joined his third team by age 24 despite throwing so hard.

Maybe Eovaldi’s new-found splitter last season will be the difference in his career. Maybe that’s the pitch that will finally get him over the hump and and start to bring down that ugly 1.397 career WHIP of his. Maybe he won’t waste so many two-strike pitches that get fouled off and won’t try to strike every guy out and maintain his pitch count, so he isn’t forced to leave every game in the sixth inning nearing 120 pitches. That’s a lot of maybes for a guy who many Yankees fans believe in and believe he can be a front-end starter for this team. I’m going to need to see it more than once a month.

Number 40, Luis Severino, Number 40

Are you the ace?

Luis Severino might be the best pitcher on the Yankees and that’s with a healthy Masahiro Tanaka. I have him as the third starter here because even though Severino is the future of this rotation, there’s no chance the Yankees have him as the No. 2 going into the season and they will likely have him as the No. 4 and I wouldn’t be surprised if they have him as the No. 5. This is the team that told us they’re all about winning last season and sent Adam Warren to the bullpen to keep CC Sabathia in the rotation and it nearly cost them a playoff berth for the third straight season.

I’m actually surprised Joe Girardi mentioned that he sees Severino pitching 200 innings this season since it’s unlike Girardi to say anyone has a guaranteed spot on the team. It would have been more like Girardi to say that Severino is competing for a rotation spot even though he might be the team’s ace.

I liked everything I saw from Severino last season and I’m expecting big things from him in 2016. That might be unfair for a starting pitcher who turns 22 on Saturday and has 11 starts and 62 1/3 innings of Major League experience under his belt, but I wouldn’t say it if I didn’t think he could handle it. Even with minimal work in the majors, I thought there was a case to be made to have Severino start the wild-card game last year though I knew that would never happen. But to think he was right there alongside Tanaka, the $155 million man, to start a one-game playoff after 11 career starts shows you how good Severino is.

Number 35, Michael Pineda, Number 35

Will you ever pitch a full season?

After missing the entire 2012 and 2013 seasons, I started to think Michael Pineda would never actually pitch a game for the Yankees and that feeling of overwhelming excitement I felt in January 2012 when I found out the Yankees had traded Jesus Montero for him would never come to fruition. I finally got that feeling in 2014 when Pineda pitched to a 1.89 ERA, but only for a short time with just 13 starts. In 2015, Pineda wasn’t as good as he had been the year before, but he was healthier, making 27 starts after missing nearly all of August.

2014 Michael Pineda is the Michael Pineda I thought the Yankees were getting when they traded for him. (Well, 2014 Michael Pineda with a few more strikeouts is really the pitcher I thought they were getting.) But I thought they were getting a No. 1-2 starter in exchange for a player without a position. I thought they were getting the guy they thought they were signing in A.J. Burnett and someone to finally slot in behind CC Sabathia and make a true and formidable 1-2 punch for the playoffs. Instead Pineda has made just 40 starts over four years as a Yankee and by the time he was healthy to pitch, Sabathia was no longer the No. 1 and the Yankees weren’t even a playoff team.

I still think there’s a full season as a Yankee ahead of Pineda, and the scary part is it feels like that trade happened forever ago, yet he just turned 27 in January. With all the questions once again surrounding this rotation, it would be nice if Pineda could finally remove himself as one of the questions for the first time in five years and here’s to believing he can. I still believe in Big Mike.

Number 19, Masahiro Tanaka, Number 19

Is your right elbow OK?

Back in October, Tanaka had arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone spur from his pitching elbow. It wasn’t the surgery many thought he would have had by now and some New York writers have wished he would have by now, but it’s still surgery. Now four months removed from the surgery, there is a possibility Tanaka won’t be ready in time for Opening Day despite being pain free at this point.

I was skeptical of the Yankees giving $155 million to a pitcher that had never thrown a pitcher in the majors. When his third pitch in the majors, on an 0-2 count to Melky Cabrera, went for a leadoff home run in the third game of the 2014 season, I wasn’t feeling too good. But Tanaka won that game and started the season 6-0 and when he improved to 11-1 on June 17 with his fifth double-digit strikeout game in 15 starts, his ERA stood at 1.99. Even when he lost a complete game to the Red Sox on June 28 despite giving up just two earned runs, Tanaka was still 11-3 with a 2.10 ERA and he was still the best pitcher in the American League.

In his next two starts, Tanaka gave up nine earned runs in 13 2/3 innings and went on the disabled list after his July 8 start. He returned on Sept. 21 to make two starts — one good (5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K vs. TOR) and one bad (1.2 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K at BOS) — to end the season.

In 2015, we saw the April 4-July 8, 2014 Tanaka in spurts. We saw him on April 18 (7 IP, 2 HR, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K at TB) and April 23 (6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K at DET). But then he went on the DL until June 3. We saw him come off the DL and pitch 21 innings with 21 strikeouts, allowing just four earned runs in his first three starts back. But after that run from June 3-15, we saw him sporadically and didn’t see him in the one-game playoff against the Astros even though he probably could have pitched 14 scoreless innings that game and the Yankees still would have lost.

Last season, I thought Tanaka had to be healthy all year for the Yankees to make the playoffs. He wasn’t (24 starts) and they did (kind of). But this season, I’m saying nearly the same thing: Masahiro Tanaka has to be healthy nearly all season for the Yankees to make the playoffs. With Michael Pineda’s shoulder annual shoulder problems, Nathan Eovaldi’s own elbow issue, Luis Severino’s inexperience, CC Sabathia’s … well just about everything with CC and Ivan Nova’s inconsistent career, the Yankees can’t afford to lose Tanaka. That’s right, the 2015 rotation hinges on the right arm of a pitcher pitching with a torn right elbow. Baseball is back!

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